WWE's "predictable" booking

[saintpat]

Was just reading some good posts on a very interesting thread. 'Newz' and dirtsheets aside, just how predictable is WWE booking for WrestleMania?

Let's see.

Predict 5 matches that will take place at WM30 -- no caveats, no qualifiers, just 5 matches. And also who wins.

If WWE is as predictable as some seem to think, there will be a general consensus of what the card will look like -- if it's predictable the majority will be able to predict it.

If the predictions are all over the place, that means by definition that it's not at all that predictable.

And if anyone goes 5-for-5, well, we have us a champ.

So what are your five?

[TOK Hehe'd Around & Found Out]

Cena-'Taker is really the only one that seems predictable at this point.

[Kevin Hamilton]

Based on right now two are pretty well assured for this year. A year ahead, eh that's not the 'predictable' argument.

When people say predictable booking though, they're actually talking about the story beats playing out in obvious ways. If you know A and B, you can then infer C with a great degree of accuracy.

Everyone will get 3/5 right outta the gate with both title matches and HHH/Brock. For 29.

Prognosticating eventual storylines isn't the argument though. It's telegraphing stories based on the set up.

Maybe not predictable so much as formulaic.

[saintpat]

Feb 26, 2013 19:17:21 GMT -5 Kevin Hamilton said:

Based on right now two are pretty well assured.

When people say predictable booking though, they're actually talking about the story beats playing out in obvious ways. If you know A and B, you can then infer C with a great degree of accuracy.

Everyone will get 3/5 right outta the gate with both title matches and HHH/Brock. For 29.

Prognosticating eventual storylines isn't the argument though. It's telegraphing stories based on the set up.

Maybe not predictable so much as formulaic.

But one of two title matches -- Swagger vs. Del Rio -- is completely out of left field. Heck, Swagga wasn't even around, what, a month ago?

I mean, yes, six weeks out the card is taking shape. Of course they are going to build it up. But a year out, if WWE is so predictable, at least 50 percent of the people on this board should be able to figure out 3 of 5 for WM 30.

[babyfootball]

WWE isn't necessarily predictible in a specific way; not a "A vs. B, A wins every time" or "A turns heel on B when A does X and B does X" sort of way, but more of a vague, "company direction" sort of way. Like, everybody can visualize with pretty high accuracy what Smackdown this week or Raw next week or Wrestlemania will look like. We can guess with 95% or so certainty what is in the "general realm of possibility," if you want to look at it that way.

And yeah, the qualifiers have a lot to do with it. For instance, I may not be able to say that "A will beat B" but I might be able to say that "A will beat B unless B does X and A does Y, in which case B will beat A." They throw a bone of surprise every once in a while but don't generally take any left-field chances with overall booking and production philosophy.

And hey, a lot of people in the business, marketing and advertising fields would call that building brand recognition and loyalty. Like it or not, WWE's business model these days is one focused on stability, without too many peaks and valleys. To their credit, they're a consistently profitable, viable, solvent operation.

That doesn't necessarily do much good for the entertainment side of things, but that's just how it is.

Oh, 5 matches? Shot in the dark here:
- Rock/Brock
- Taker/Cena
- Punk/Bryan
- Jericho/Miz (both these guys are gonna still be hanging around the top of the card)
- Sheamus/Ryback

I have zero confidence in any of these, btw.

[paywindah]

Ask this around SummerSlam time and WM30 should he pretty easy to predict.

Sure, nobody was predicting Swagger/ADR but does it matter when that'll be the 4th or 5th most important match on the card? The problem is the top 3 matches (the ones that are supposed to sell the PPV) were predicted months ago and more importantly, the results of those 3 matches are 90% certain.

[Mayonnaise]

Rock/Brock - Brock wins
Taker/Cena - Taker wins
Punk/Rollins - Rollins wins
Bryan/Ambrose - Bryan wins
Reigns/Ryback - Reigns wins
Cesaro/Ziggler - Cesaro wins

[cool guy]

I think we should legitimately try this out around Summerslam time.

Post-wrestlemania is usually when they start throwing everything at the wall to see if it sticks, and then after around/after Summerslam is when the next six months of the card start taking shape.

[xCompackx]

Feb 26, 2013 20:22:43 GMT -5 paywindah said:

Ask this around SummerSlam time and WM30 should he pretty easy to predict.

Sure, nobody was predicting Swagger/ADR but does it matter when that'll be the 4th or 5th most important match on the card? The problem is the top 3 matches (the ones that are supposed to sell the PPV) were predicted months ago and more importantly, the results of those 3 matches are 90% certain.

Yeah, that's really my only problem with it. It's fine to have a WrestleMania that's predictable if there's some mystery about how you're going to go about setting it up and who's going to win (I'll give you Undertaker, since it's always pretty much a certain conclusion), but WWE just feels so formulaic about WrestleMania 29. Is it "logical booking"? Maybe, but we're just a little bit over a month away and it still doesn't feel like WrestleMania to me.

[KofiMania]

I think the main reason people on here think things get "predictable" is because they read the dirtsheets and get all of the latest news and rumors. If you didn't then there's really nothing predictable about Rock facing Cena--they really didn't tease a rematch in any obvious way. If you didn't read the dirstsheets then a few months ago, how would Taker versus Punk be predictable? It wouldn't. It hasn't really been teased at all until Punk's promo this past week. This happens for most things. We've seen dirtsheet reports that Rock-Lesnar might main event next year and maybe Cena-Taker too. Well those aren't "predictable" if they end up happening and you haven't read anything--they're only predictable if you've read the rumors about them prior.

[Dub H]

Feb 27, 2013 0:31:02 GMT -5 KofiMania said:

I think the main reason people on here think things get "predictable" is because they read the dirtsheets and get all of the latest news and rumors. If you didn't then there's really nothing predictable about Rock facing Cena--they really didn't tease a rematch in any obvious way. If you didn't read the dirstsheets then a few months ago, how would Taker versus Punk be predictable? It wouldn't. It hasn't really been teased at all until Punk's promo this past week. This happens for most things. We've seen dirtsheet reports that Rock-Lesnar might main event next year and maybe Cena-Taker too. Well those aren't "predictable" if they end up happening and you haven't read anything--they're only predictable if you've read the rumors about them prior.

Yes,Punk Taker won`t.

But Rock Cena i think that would be easier to predict.

But yeh,good point bringing up the dirt sheets

[Dang!]

You can't predict wrestling more than a year ahead. WWE is however very predictable in the way how Wrestlemania will look like and what matches will take place. It was very predictable that Cena will win the Rumble and face Rock at WM and it was very predictable that Triple H will face Lesnar. The outcome of these two matches are also predictable as f*** as they are rematches where the losers of the first match will "get their win back". Especially in Triple H's case it's very obvious that his ego can't stand looking so vulnerable after their first match.

Very sure prediction:
-Triple H beats Lesnar

Sure prediction:
-Cena beats Rock

Somewhat sure prediction:
-Del Rio beats Swagger

The rest? Who the f*** cares?

["Cane Dewey" Johnson]

Predictability isn't necessarily bad, but it's easy to forgive if the storyline/angle is well-told.

For instance, "The Avengers" film from last year... did anyone REALLY think that Loki and the Chitauri would beat the Avengers? No. But it told a simple story, about conflicting personalities who come together as a team to fight a greater threat bigger than themselves, and it told that simple story well. It more or less was a logical build of developing and bringing characters together seen in the five movies prior to its release.

Take Steve Austin gunning for Shawn Michaels at Wrestlemania 14 or Batista becoming a megaface by taking out Triple H at Wrestlemania 21. I don't think, within the context of the angles themselves (and barring external circumstances like whether Michaels would shoot and refuse to drop the belt to Austin, the whole Undertaker-taped fists story), that anyone expected the heel character to leave victorious. Again, simple stories about good and evil, about conflicting personalities, that reaches a natural, logical conclusion without extraneous detours that muddle the simplicity of why Wrestler X is fighting Wrestler Y.

Cena/Punk this past Raw told a good in-ring story. However, the booking around that match is either disingenuous (Cena) or unnecessarily complicated (Punk). In the case of Cena, it seems like WWE is trying to hype Cena/Rock II as Cena's Wrestlemania moment. Cena's "come home" apparently, after having "the worst year of his career last year." But for me, to position Cena as some sort of underdog who's trying to redeem himself is incredibly contrived, because Cena's already a ten-time WWE champion. He's already main-evented countless Wrestlemanias. Beating the Rock is for Cena like moving from 99 to 100, whereas if a guy like Ryback were to beat the Rock at Wrestlemania, it'd be like going from 0 to 100. So that kind of predictability hurts the match Cena and Punk had, since it's been telegraphed ever since Cena lost to the Rock last year.

In the case of Punk, Punk has a long reign, bogged down by his lack of main-event exposure while being champion (as a face) and a wishy-washy turn that fans never 100% took to (as a heel). And the two matches he's had with the Rock were overbooked. So now Punk has resoundingly lost clean in a competitive match to his greatest rival, John Cena. Now that he's lost so cleanly, he's without an angle. At least, until he comes out to complain that his title reign was the best streak in WWE history. GONG. Cue the Undertaker. Given that Wrestlemania is hyped in part because of the Undertaker's undefeated streak, both he and Punk need an opponent. So the predictability comes from the fact that the bookers need to fill up the card and need to feature top talent, especially two top talents who have nothing to do because they aren't the MAIN main-event. It would actually be LESS predictable if instead WWE picks up the Punk/Ryback feud and builds to THAT match at this year's Wrestlemania show. Sheamus and Orton seem to be mixing it up more with the Shield than Ryback is, given this past Raw. So Ryback, too, is without an opponent. Logically, given the TV time and angles of the past 5-6 months, Punk/Ryback at Wrestlemania should be booked, with Ryback finally beating Punk one-on-one. But will that happen? We'll see.

[Brickstone Kid]

Too early. This year's Mania only became predictable within the past 3-5 months. It would have been impossible to predict this year's card at this time last year (who would have even guessed Lesnar would be involved?).

A better question is what will be the Summerslam card.

[Unaffiliated]

I, for one, generally don't find the booking predictable.... just that it is predictable for the really big moments. The current examples are Cena/Rock II and Triple H/Lesnar II. Other than that, it's not really predictable without insider knowledge.

It would probably be around June-August that some hints may be dropped for big matches at Wrestlemania 30. Now is too soon.

[JoDaNa1281]

Feb 27, 2013 0:31:02 GMT -5 KofiMania said:

I think the main reason people on here think things get "predictable" is because they read the dirtsheets and get all of the latest news and rumors. If you didn't then there's really nothing predictable about Rock facing Cena--they really didn't tease a rematch in any obvious way. If you didn't read the dirstsheets then a few months ago, how would Taker versus Punk be predictable? It wouldn't. It hasn't really been teased at all until Punk's promo this past week. This happens for most things. We've seen dirtsheet reports that Rock-Lesnar might main event next year and maybe Cena-Taker too. Well those aren't "predictable" if they end up happening and you haven't read anything--they're only predictable if you've read the rumors about them prior.

Actually, I'm sure quite a few people predicted Rock/Cena II for Mania back at Raw 1000, when Rock said he was getting a WWE Title match at the Rumble.



Oh yeah, my 5 matches
- Rock/Brock
- Taker/Cena (WWE Title vs Streak)
- Slater/Orton
- Dallas/Sheamus (WHC Match)
- HHH/Titus


Now, to be fair, I'm only really sure about a couple of these...the others, I'm only mostly sure about.

[Deleted]

Feb 26, 2013 20:22:43 GMT -5 paywindah said:

Ask this around SummerSlam time and WM30 should he pretty easy to predict.

Sure, nobody was predicting Swagger/ADR but does it matter when that'll be the 4th or 5th most important match on the card? The problem is the top 3 matches (the ones that are supposed to sell the PPV) were predicted months ago and more importantly, the results of those 3 matches are 90% certain.

Exactly. The focus is on WM 29 right now, but come summer, the wheels are set in motion and I'd say most folks will be able to predict it with amazing accuracy.

[TK The Friendly Robot]

Lesnar/Rock - Winner: Brock Lesnar
ADR/Cesaro - Winner: Cesaro
Ziggler/Bryan - Winner: Ziggler
Ryback/Sheamus/Show - Winner: Ryback
Cena/Taker - Winner: Taker

[Deleted]

Feb 26, 2013 20:30:30 GMT -5 Mayonnaise said:

Rock/Brock - Brock wins
Taker/Cena - Taker wins
Punk/Rollins - Rollins wins
Bryan/Ambrose - Bryan wins
Reigns/Ryback - Reigns wins
Cesaro/Ziggler - Cesaro wins

I'd put my money on the Shield being forgotten by Wrestlemania 30.

[Sam Punk]

Rock over Brock
Cena over Taker
HHH over Punk
Sheamus over Henry
Kane over Show