Ani looks at 2005 Baseball prospect rankings

[ani]

A tradition I seem to do every year or two. I take an old Baseball America handbook and see how close they were on predictions.

#1 Atlanta Braves
1. Jeff Francouer/RF/Mets: Not the superstar everyone had him but still a rock solid player. Free swinger.
2. Andy Marte/3B/Indians: Frustrating Indians fans for years, the window may be closing on the 26 year old third baseman. 2010 may be his last chance.
3. Brian McCann/C/Braves: All star and one of the best players on this list.
4. Kyle Davies/SP/Royals: 26 year old has never put it together. Maybe one of the worst full time starters in baseball right now.
5. Anthony Lerew/SP/Royals: Looking like a AAA pitcher at this point.
6. Jake Stevens/RP/Braves: Still in A ball...that's not good.
7. Luis Hernandez/SS/Royals: Good glove but can't hit for beans.
8. Kelly Johnson/2B-OF/Free agent: Decent bat but still unknown if he'll be a full time player or a platoon guy.
9. Jarrod Saltalamacchia/C/Rangers: Potential is still there but injury bug has attacked several times already.
10. Blaine Boyer/RP/Diamondbacks: sucked in St. Louis but solid after being traded to Arizona.

[PaperStreetBrigade]

It seems that Baseball prospects are always the most random. Hockey being the only sport that has as much of a minor league system as baseball does seems to get it right more often.

[bob]

I haven't heard of someof those guys

[HMARK Center]

Dec 26, 2009 11:01:44 GMT -5 PaperStreetBrigade said:

It seems that Baseball prospects are always the most random. Hockey being the only sport that has as much of a minor league system as baseball does seems to get it right more often.

And hockey's is much more simplified, considering that teams basically only have two minor league clubs, whereas a MLB club can have much more. The Mets, for example, have their AAA club at Buffalo, AA at Binghamton, A at Port St. Lucie (FL), and other A/Rookie ball clubs in Savannah (GA), Brooklyn, etc.

For football and basketball the college levels really do act as a pretty solid "minor leagues", so to speak, but the college game in baseball is too different from the pro game to be the perfect indicator of success, and, besides, college isn't a requisite for the MLB draft.

Baseball is also a sport where raw talent and statistical success have the least overlap. Yes, in other sports you certainly need to have a good head on your shoulders to fully succeed (for reasons why you need this, see: Leaf, Ryan), but very often in football, hockey, or basketball, you can make it incredibly far based almost purely on raw talent. You'll eventually hit a wall, sure, but you'll more than likely be in the big leagues.

In baseball, there's so much more "refining" that goes into it, it's almost absurd. Yet, it's a necessity, which means that a ton of minor leaguers with all the speed, power, reflexes, or bat speed in the world won't get a sniff of the majors if they can't adjust to wooden bats, if they don't have an exceptional eye at the plate, if their pitches don't have just the right amount of break, etc.

I'm not slighting the other sports at all, but of the "Big Four", baseball is probably the most nuanced, hence it's the one where you end up having the smallest margin for error as a prospect.

[ani]

#2 Florida Marlins

1. Jeremy Hermida/OF/Red Sox: Has not fully adjusted to MLB at all. Maybe a platoon/4th OF.
2. Scott Olsen/SP/Nats: Another one who hasn't adjusted to major league baseball. Has makeup issues as well.
3. Yorman Bazardo/SP/Astros: Awesome as a relief pitcher but the Astros needed him in rotation. Way over his head as a starter.
4. Jason Stokes/1B/Tigers: One of the biggest busts in recent memory. There was once a debate about wether him or Adrian Gonzalez was better. Guess who won?
5. Josh Willingham/1B-OF/Nats: Hits homers...and that's it pretty much.
6. Eric Reed/OF/FA: Last seen in the Mets organization. Look for him on the milk carton.
7. Taylor Tankersley/RP/Marlins: If healthy, a solid setup man. Nothing else to say.
8. Jason Vargas/P/Mariners: Looked good as a starter early on this year but came back to earth. He's got the stuff to be a decent pitcher though.
9. Robert Andino/IF/O's: Light hitting with OK glove. Of course, that didn't stop him from hitting a GW homer against the Mets
10. Trevor Hutchinson/P/out of baseball?: Never made it above AA. Last pitched in the minors in 2007.

[i.Sarita.com]

I love how after just 4 years, most of the guys on the list are on DIFFERENT teams than who they were "Top Prospects" for to begin with.