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Post by jobber316 on Sept 16, 2020 17:01:04 GMT -5
I actually did a bit of data collecting for my own info last season in terms of whether you'd be better off doing the -1.5 lines instead of betting on the -200+ games straight up. Truth be told there are so many times where a heavy favorite wins by 1 run that you're better off just doing the money line. Baseball is really the easiest sport to bet and I am continually baffled as to why more people don't do it. Football is really tough with the point spreads (college is especially awful for me).
Is there any research done on the tipping point for betting on a money line, as in when does it financially become questionable to bet on a favorite?
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Post by jobber316 on Sept 16, 2020 22:29:06 GMT -5
Bah, the Astros losing 1-0 cost me. 3-2 on those picks but it would be a -75 night. That said, it is still better not to mess with the -1.5 since that Reds game was a win that would turn into a loss at -1.5 (it was 1-0). Doing it that way would be -155.
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Post by jobber316 on Sept 17, 2020 22:27:22 GMT -5
I should have posted this earlier but using a similar strategy worked better for picks today:
Dodgers over Rockies -153 (this is ongoing as I type) Rays over Orioles (Game 1) -178 W Astros over Rangers -233 W (this would be a loss on -1.5) Indians over Tigers -260 W (a squash either way) Yankees over Blue Jays -196 W
The Dodgers are up 9-2 as I type this. In case anyone is wondering I am just using 538.com and picking teams with a 60%+ chance of winning and then checking to see if anyone is on a losing streak or whatever.
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Post by jobber316 on Sept 18, 2020 9:09:18 GMT -5
More picks today:
Indians over Tigers -190 Rays over Orioles -200 Dodgers over Rockies -165 Padres over Mariners -174
The Padres have lost 2 in a row but should bounce back.
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Post by Captain Stud Muffin (BLM) on Sept 18, 2020 9:50:53 GMT -5
More picks today: Indians over Tigers -190 Rays over Orioles -200 Dodgers over Rockies -165 Padres over Mariners -174 The Padres have lost 2 in a row but should bounce back. High spread picks have not been all that good this year The value isn't worth the price
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Gus Richlen Was Wrong
Patti Mayonnaise
Metal Maestro: Co-winner of the FAN Idol Throwdown!
Fun while it lasted
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Post by Gus Richlen Was Wrong on Sept 18, 2020 15:43:13 GMT -5
Looked at Draftkings for my lineup for UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley and was stunned that Woodley was just $6900. Snapped him up easy because 1. I like his chances against Colby Covington and 2. f*** Colby Covington.
Also got Donald Cerrone cheap.
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Post by jobber316 on Sept 18, 2020 22:33:38 GMT -5
Oh I wouldn't remotely actually lay money on these MLB games in a weird 60 game season. It's the sort of thing you do after you get the lay of the land and see who is doing what. As in right now is the time you really start seeing the best teams but the reg. season is almost over. With that said of the picks I did 2 have already won, the Dodgers are up 15-6 in the 9th, and the Padres are up 5-0. So if those hold up that's like 12-2 on the money line of the picks I have posted. I've just made these picks informally over the past couple of years to see how it does and it's kind of interesting. The first few weeks you struggle because the lines are always funky trying to gauge the teams, but by the last part of April you should have a grasp of what's going on. Then May and June is where you can really clean up, but then as a warning July is a mess since the best teams seem to kinda screw around right before and after the All Star Break (but not enough to fade really). Then after that Aug. and Sept. are the best months as contenders bear down and get into playoff position and you can really make money.
I do find it interesting that the Dodgers are clearly, obviously the best team in baseball and yet the past 3 games haven't really been big favorites. You'd think they'd be well over a -200 against most teams in the NL.
There's also underdog strategies to employ, stuff like focusing on teams under +150 in odds, not on a 3 game or more losing streak, not facing one of the top pitchers, etc. It's a lot easier to do any of this than worrying whether some jobber NFL team gets a late TD in garbage time to lose by 10 when they're a 12 point underdog.
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Post by jobber316 on Sept 19, 2020 9:46:52 GMT -5
May as well keep seeing how well this goes...
Cardinals over Pirates -170 Brewers over Royals -190 Dodgers over Rockies -255 Padres over Mariners -180
I also looked at Rays/Orioles but Charlie Morton has sucked so I dunno about that one.
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Post by jobber316 on Sept 20, 2020 9:32:02 GMT -5
Bah, should have picked the Rays after all. Still went 3-1 there. Let's keep this going until the end of the MLB reg. season.
Rays over Orioles -157 Indians over Tigers -193 Astros over Diamondbacks -185 Dodgers over Rockies -195 A's over Giants -171 Cardinals over Pirates -159 Padres over Mariners -260 (maybe do the -1.5 at -155 on this).
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Post by jobber316 on Sept 21, 2020 8:02:24 GMT -5
That was the first crap day I've had since I started doing this. 19-6 overall though. Today:
Angels over Rangers -183 Braves over Marlins -159 Mets over Rays -187
I am also looking at Yankees vs. Blue Jays but at this point I don't know the Yankees starting pitcher.
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Post by jobber316 on Sept 22, 2020 8:22:33 GMT -5
Now 21-7 overall. But these Rays games are just killing me, either from not picking them and they win or picking them and they lose.
Yankees over Blue Jays -252 Braves over Marlins -180 Astros over Mariners -170 Twins over Tigers -179
Okay, Homer Bailey is starting for the Twins, so I will pick that one.
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Gus Richlen Was Wrong
Patti Mayonnaise
Metal Maestro: Co-winner of the FAN Idol Throwdown!
Fun while it lasted
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Post by Gus Richlen Was Wrong on Sept 26, 2020 19:26:15 GMT -5
So, out of painful quantities of boredom, I went to the Island to do stuff with the BetAmerica sportsbook (not America's Sportsbook as I put down earlier). Put a total of eight bucks down at half on Army to upset Cincinatti. Was a good idea at the time. FAIL. Also put a buck on Duke to beat Virginia. FAIL.
Put a buck on Mississippi State and that worked out... for $2.28.
Maybe my UFC 253 parlay will do better so I can have an excuse to go to Escanaba in a couple weeks.
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Gus Richlen Was Wrong
Patti Mayonnaise
Metal Maestro: Co-winner of the FAN Idol Throwdown!
Fun while it lasted
Posts: 38,465
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Post by Gus Richlen Was Wrong on Sept 26, 2020 23:49:49 GMT -5
And I can chuck every single UFC one I had into the trash because holy shit was I way off.
My Draftkings lineups probably ate the dust as well.
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Post by Vice honcho room temperature on Sept 29, 2020 9:16:27 GMT -5
So anything good for the first round series in terms of value?
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Post by Captain Stud Muffin (BLM) on Sept 29, 2020 13:25:15 GMT -5
So anything good for the first round series in terms of value? In terms of looking for an upset on an underdog, A's could have some value over the first year White Sox
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Post by Captain Stud Muffin (BLM) on Oct 4, 2020 11:31:35 GMT -5
One of those head scratcher lines today
SF is -9 over Eagles. I know Eagles have been a massive disappointment this year but Vegas seems to be overvaluing their wins over the NY teams (arguably the two worst teams in the NFL) and they still have a ton of injuries
SF can still win the game but they expect a blow out which if the Eagles do get blown out, everyone is in trouble there
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Post by Captain Stud Muffin (BLM) on Oct 4, 2020 22:05:39 GMT -5
Yup, as I said people got way too low and way too high on Eagles and 49ers
9 point spread should not have been there. 4 points for 49ers would been better but they gave them over a TD
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Post by Captain Stud Muffin (BLM) on Nov 1, 2020 14:45:32 GMT -5
Been almost a month since I updated this
- NFL has been 50/50 for me
- College haven't really gotten a grasp of due to how f***ing crazy it has been
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sfvega
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Post by sfvega on Nov 1, 2020 20:56:30 GMT -5
Been almost a month since I updated this - NFL has been 50/50 for me - College haven't really gotten a grasp of due to how f***ing crazy it has been Could have hit on a parlay if Georgia's offense actually showed up. I did kick myself for betting 5 days in advance when the Lawrence news broke. I used to like to hit the spreads before they moved, but in the Covid era, that is a risky play.
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Post by Captain Stud Muffin (BLM) on Dec 14, 2020 23:29:38 GMT -5
NFL has did me so bad this season
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