Post by jobber316 on Sept 16, 2020 17:01:04 GMT -5
I actually did a bit of data collecting for my own info last season in terms of whether you'd be better off doing the -1.5 lines instead of betting on the -200+ games straight up. Truth be told there are so many times where a heavy favorite wins by 1 run that you're better off just doing the money line. Baseball is really the easiest sport to bet and I am continually baffled as to why more people don't do it. Football is really tough with the point spreads (college is especially awful for me).
Is there any research done on the tipping point for betting on a money line, as in when does it financially become questionable to bet on a favorite?
Post by jobber316 on Sept 16, 2020 22:29:06 GMT -5
Bah, the Astros losing 1-0 cost me. 3-2 on those picks but it would be a -75 night. That said, it is still better not to mess with the -1.5 since that Reds game was a win that would turn into a loss at -1.5 (it was 1-0). Doing it that way would be -155.
Post by jobber316 on Sept 17, 2020 22:27:22 GMT -5
I should have posted this earlier but using a similar strategy worked better for picks today:
Dodgers over Rockies -153 (this is ongoing as I type) Rays over Orioles (Game 1) -178 W Astros over Rangers -233 W (this would be a loss on -1.5) Indians over Tigers -260 W (a squash either way) Yankees over Blue Jays -196 W
The Dodgers are up 9-2 as I type this. In case anyone is wondering I am just using 538.com and picking teams with a 60%+ chance of winning and then checking to see if anyone is on a losing streak or whatever.
Last Edit: Sept 17, 2020 22:27:42 GMT -5 by jobber316
Post by Gus Richlen: NKT UK Only? on Sept 18, 2020 15:43:13 GMT -5
Looked at Draftkings for my lineup for UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley and was stunned that Woodley was just $6900. Snapped him up easy because 1. I like his chances against Colby Covington and 2. f*** Colby Covington.
Post by jobber316 on Sept 18, 2020 22:33:38 GMT -5
Oh I wouldn't remotely actually lay money on these MLB games in a weird 60 game season. It's the sort of thing you do after you get the lay of the land and see who is doing what. As in right now is the time you really start seeing the best teams but the reg. season is almost over. With that said of the picks I did 2 have already won, the Dodgers are up 15-6 in the 9th, and the Padres are up 5-0. So if those hold up that's like 12-2 on the money line of the picks I have posted. I've just made these picks informally over the past couple of years to see how it does and it's kind of interesting. The first few weeks you struggle because the lines are always funky trying to gauge the teams, but by the last part of April you should have a grasp of what's going on. Then May and June is where you can really clean up, but then as a warning July is a mess since the best teams seem to kinda screw around right before and after the All Star Break (but not enough to fade really). Then after that Aug. and Sept. are the best months as contenders bear down and get into playoff position and you can really make money.
I do find it interesting that the Dodgers are clearly, obviously the best team in baseball and yet the past 3 games haven't really been big favorites. You'd think they'd be well over a -200 against most teams in the NL.
There's also underdog strategies to employ, stuff like focusing on teams under +150 in odds, not on a 3 game or more losing streak, not facing one of the top pitchers, etc. It's a lot easier to do any of this than worrying whether some jobber NFL team gets a late TD in garbage time to lose by 10 when they're a 12 point underdog.
Bah, should have picked the Rays after all. Still went 3-1 there. Let's keep this going until the end of the MLB reg. season.
Rays over Orioles -157 Indians over Tigers -193 Astros over Diamondbacks -185 Dodgers over Rockies -195 A's over Giants -171 Cardinals over Pirates -159 Padres over Mariners -260 (maybe do the -1.5 at -155 on this).
Post by Gus Richlen: NKT UK Only? on Sept 26, 2020 19:26:15 GMT -5
So, out of painful quantities of boredom, I went to the Island to do stuff with the BetAmerica sportsbook (not America's Sportsbook as I put down earlier). Put a total of eight bucks down at half on Army to upset Cincinatti. Was a good idea at the time. FAIL. Also put a buck on Duke to beat Virginia. FAIL.
Put a buck on Mississippi State and that worked out... for $2.28.
Maybe my UFC 253 parlay will do better so I can have an excuse to go to Escanaba in a couple weeks.
Post by Captain Money Made (BLM) on Oct 4, 2020 11:31:35 GMT -5
One of those head scratcher lines today
SF is -9 over Eagles. I know Eagles have been a massive disappointment this year but Vegas seems to be overvaluing their wins over the NY teams (arguably the two worst teams in the NFL) and they still have a ton of injuries
SF can still win the game but they expect a blow out which if the Eagles do get blown out, everyone is in trouble there
- College haven't really gotten a grasp of due to how f***ing crazy it has been
Could have hit on a parlay if Georgia's offense actually showed up. I did kick myself for betting 5 days in advance when the Lawrence news broke. I used to like to hit the spreads before they moved, but in the Covid era, that is a risky play.