BRV
Bill S. Preston, Esq.
Wants him some Taco Flavored Kisses.
Posts: 16,767
|
Post by BRV on May 31, 2020 21:04:15 GMT -5
Win Shares and Sabermetric stats are overrated qualities that do not tell the true story of the game Daryl Morey is crying in the corner. So is Billy Beane, who has also never won squat based on the same concept that you can just plug numbers into a computer and expect to build a team that way.
|
|
Mochi Lone Wolf
Fry's dog Seymour
Development through Destruction.
Posts: 23,998
|
Post by Mochi Lone Wolf on May 31, 2020 21:20:16 GMT -5
I have always hated the idea in world football of how teams who have more possession "deserve" points from a game.
If you have control of the ball for 80 minutes, but every shot you either goes straight to the keeper, bounces off a defender's head for a corner, is hit wide, or ends up a souvenir in the crowd, you don't "deserve" a thing.
I always hated it when Arsene Wenger or Pep Guardiola would whine about what's "harsh" or "deserved" every time they lost a game to a team that converted all their chances into goals.
|
|
sfvega
Grimlock
Posts: 13,442
Member is Online
|
Post by sfvega on May 31, 2020 21:39:23 GMT -5
Win Shares and Sabermetric stats are overrated qualities that do not tell the true story of the game There is no perfect stat, but there are fans in every sport that try to quantify every player's value in one number as seemingly a fact. In the MLB, it's WAR. In the NFL, it's DVOA. And in the NHL, it seems to be Corsi at this point. They're all flawed, but especially NFL analytics since there's hundreds of variables that can't possibly all be taken account for. It's a tool, it's not sacred text by which all players will be judged. BA used to be king, now OBP/SLG/OPS are what people value. But the thing that is still true is that we the numbers have to match what we're seeing, and the eye has to be backed up by the numbers. No half of that tells the entire story.
|
|
|
Post by OVO 40 hunched over like he 80 on May 31, 2020 22:03:17 GMT -5
Austin Rivers is a good role player who deserves to be on the league regardless of who his father is. That being said, if the rumor is true, Doc Rivers was an idiot for not trading Austin in a package deal for Carmelo Anthony.
|
|
|
Post by Captain Stud Muffin (BLM) on Jun 1, 2020 6:41:01 GMT -5
Win Shares and Sabermetric stats are overrated qualities that do not tell the true story of the game There is no perfect stat, but there are fans in every sport that try to quantify every player's value in one number as seemingly a fact. In the MLB, it's WAR. In the NFL, it's DVOA. And in the NHL, it seems to be Corsi at this point. They're all flawed, but especially NFL analytics since there's hundreds of variables that can't possibly all be taken account for. It's a tool, it's not sacred text by which all players will be judged. BA used to be king, now OBP/SLG/OPS are what people value. But the thing that is still true is that we the numbers have to match what we're seeing, and the eye has to be backed up by the numbers. No half of that tells the entire story. There has to be a give and take. If you truly just rely on numbers then you are doing a disservice to yourself. Baseball seems to be going back to at least more of the eye test. Jayson Heyward and Shin Soo Choo are very good players but were sabermetric darlings and got paid big bank for that. I don't need WAR to really tell me how dominate Mike Trout is You can tell me about Win Shares and how Javale McGee is more valuable then Draymond Green when McGee plays 10 mins a night on the Warriors and Draymond has the ball in his hand damn near 80% of the time. It just doesn't compute to the way people want it to be
|
|
Push R Truth
Patti Mayonnaise
Unique and Special Snowflake, and a pants-less heathen.
Perpetually Constipated
Posts: 39,218
|
Post by Push R Truth on Jun 1, 2020 7:34:55 GMT -5
I find it hilarious that the American sport that is the most "Stat Heavy/Importance" (Baseball) is the one damn sport doesn't even have a constant field size. Home Runs in one ballpark are deep fly outs in another, or a double off the wall becomes a line drive homer. Or some fields have the area past the foul lines tight and clear, and others it's damn near a maze of obstacles for the ball to bounce around.
It would be like the NBA having the 3 point line be 2 feet farther back in some cities, and a couple feet closer in others. Maybe the hoops are 6 inches wider in Chicago and the free throw line is only 9 feet in Philly. if would be like the NFL randomly having one end-zone be only 6 yards deep and letting each stadium decide how big their goalposts will be. It would be like the NHL giving the one team a goal that 2 feet wider, or the goalie stick is randomly bigger or smaller for random reasons.
I love baseball but it's got some hilarious bullshit. And I'm not even gonna touch how the unwritten rule-book is longer than the actual written rule-book. Or how showing emotion as a batter means a pitcher is going to hurt you. Yet that same pitcher can pump their fists and shout with no repercussions.
|
|
sfvega
Grimlock
Posts: 13,442
Member is Online
|
Post by sfvega on Jun 1, 2020 9:27:38 GMT -5
I find it hilarious that the American sport that is the most "Stat Heavy/Importance" (Baseball) is the one damn sport doesn't even have a constant field size. Home Runs in one ballpark are deep fly outs in another, or a double off the wall becomes a line drive homer. Or some fields have the area past the foul lines tight and clear, and others it's damn near a maze of obstacles for the ball to bounce around. It would be like the NBA having the 3 point line be 2 feet farther back in some cities, and a couple feet closer in others. Maybe the hoops are 6 inches wider in Chicago and the free throw line is only 9 feet in Philly. if would be like the NFL randomly having one end-zone be only 6 yards deep and letting each stadium decide how big their goalposts will be. It would be like the NHL giving the one team a goal that 2 feet wider, or the goalie stick is randomly bigger or smaller for random reasons. I love baseball but it's got some hilarious bullshit. And I'm not even gonna touch how the unwritten rule-book is longer than the actual written rule-book. Or how showing emotion as a batter means a pitcher is going to hurt you. Yet that same pitcher can pump their fists and shout with no repercussions. Baseball sabermetrics aren't really meant to say what is a HR in every park. It's meant to give a more detailed picture of where a batter should be and predictive for an amount of progression/regression. ISO, wRC+, BABIP are good stats. But again, sometimes guys who "should" be good, never get good. And sometimes guys who are anomalies, stay anomalies. That fall off a cliff takes years, by which time, that season is the outlier and not the standard. Baseball is the best sport for advanced analytics. While you can shift and the parks are different dimensions, wind speeds, thin air ballparks, humidity, etc. It's nowhere near the variables of other sports. You're still getting players standing the same distance away, there's a limited number of pitches, there's very defined zones within the strike zone, there's only left or right pitchers/batters, X miles an hour coming in and coming off, launch angle, etc. You can categorize most things very easily. It's super controlled for numbers. Football comparatively is absolute chaos. Ballpark dimensions are one of the only things in baseball that isn't uniform.
|
|
fw91
Patti Mayonnaise
FAN Idol All-Star: FAN Idol Season X and *Gavel* 2x Judges' Throwdown winner
Posts: 38,560
Member is Online
|
Post by fw91 on Jun 1, 2020 9:50:00 GMT -5
Despite what's been going on after. XFL 2.0 wasn't going to be a failure. Covid is the sole culprit of its collapse.
|
|
tenshi
Patti Mayonnaise
Probably more memorable than a Charlotte title reign
Posts: 33,744
|
Post by tenshi on Jun 1, 2020 9:55:20 GMT -5
Despite what's been going on after. XFL 2.0 wasn't going to be a failure. Covid is the sole culprit of its collapse. The play was pretty good too but the stigma of the first XFL mixed with mostly unknown players made it look like a freakshow to some. People were expecting Blitz: The League but they got some nice albeit not that amazing football instead.
|
|
|
Post by ThereIsNoAbsurdistOnlyZuul on Jun 1, 2020 10:41:54 GMT -5
Daryl Morey is crying in the corner. So is Billy Beane, who has also never won squat based on the same concept that you can just plug numbers into a computer and expect to build a team that way. That's not a hot take in my estimation. But agree, given that the performance those numbers represent at the time it happened will likely have different environmental concerns (like emotional state/well being, coaching staff, literal environmental factors, etc).
|
|
Ben Wyatt
Crow T. Robot
Are You Gonna Go My Way?
I don't get it. At all. It's kind of a small horse, I mean what am I missing? Am I crazy?
Posts: 41,417
Member is Online
|
Post by Ben Wyatt on Jun 1, 2020 11:00:00 GMT -5
Daryl Morey is crying in the corner. So is Billy Beane, who has also never won squat based on the same concept that you can just plug numbers into a computer and expect to build a team that way. But there was his book and a mediocre movie about how he almost won something a couple of times!
|
|
BRV
Bill S. Preston, Esq.
Wants him some Taco Flavored Kisses.
Posts: 16,767
|
Post by BRV on Jun 1, 2020 12:06:47 GMT -5
There is no perfect stat, but there are fans in every sport that try to quantify every player's value in one number as seemingly a fact. In the MLB, it's WAR. In the NFL, it's DVOA. And in the NHL, it seems to be Corsi at this point. They're all flawed, but especially NFL analytics since there's hundreds of variables that can't possibly all be taken account for. It's a tool, it's not sacred text by which all players will be judged. BA used to be king, now OBP/SLG/OPS are what people value. But the thing that is still true is that we the numbers have to match what we're seeing, and the eye has to be backed up by the numbers. No half of that tells the entire story. There has to be a give and take. If you truly just rely on numbers then you are doing a disservice to yourself. Baseball seems to be going back to at least more of the eye test. Jayson Heyward and Shin Soo Choo are very good players but were sabermetric darlings and got paid big bank for that. I don't need WAR to really tell me how dominate Mike Trout is What I can't stand about Sabermetrics in baseball is how it is used for excuse-making. Sometimes a hit is a hit and an out is an out. But with Sabermetrics, you can use whatever you want to excuse away virtually every outcome possible. It would have been a hit, if only: they were playing in a different park or they were playing in different weather or they were playing against a different pitcher or the ball were hit to a different fielder or blah blah blah. You know, sometimes you hit it and they catch it, and that's just the end of the story. I don't need an alphabet soup's-worth of statistical categories like xBA or xFIP to try to explain it away.
|
|
|
Post by Captain Stud Muffin (BLM) on Jun 1, 2020 12:23:26 GMT -5
There has to be a give and take. If you truly just rely on numbers then you are doing a disservice to yourself. Baseball seems to be going back to at least more of the eye test. Jayson Heyward and Shin Soo Choo are very good players but were sabermetric darlings and got paid big bank for that. I don't need WAR to really tell me how dominate Mike Trout is What I can't stand about Sabermetrics in baseball is how it is used for excuse-making. Sometimes a hit is a hit and an out is an out. But with Sabermetrics, you can use whatever you want to excuse away virtually every outcome possible. It would have been a hit, if only: they were playing in a different park or they were playing in different weather or they were playing against a different pitcher or the ball were hit to a different fielder or blah blah blah. You know, sometimes you hit it and they catch it, and that's just the end of the story. I don't need an alphabet soup's-worth of statistical categories like xBA or xFIP to try to explain it away. Baseball has gone too far with it in certain instances Like I get it, you want to add value to the guys who aren't the superstars. I like exit velocity as no shit guys who hit the ball hard will get hits. I'm down with pitch framing for catchers because that's important and you do get an idea of who is undervalued as a catcher outside of throwing people out or being able to call the game. But some of the stats are just crazy and just trying to add more to what we already know. You can give me a complex stat of how this person hits but their home and away percentages tell the story of that. Same with pitchers in home friendly ballparks vs others. Guys like Brian Kenny as made this a big thing. You can't just pick a guy and think the numbers is always going to be there. The numbers don't take into account emotion and everything else surrounding the game. Some of the stats make sense but a lot of them are used to prop up players. His xFIP is higher then etc so that means he had bad luck all season. Duhh There is a place for it in baseball but ultimately it isn't the end all be all.
|
|
|
Post by "Evil Brood" Jackson Vanik on Jun 1, 2020 12:50:23 GMT -5
Sports would be a lot better if top seeds could select their opponents for each round of the playoffs in a challenge-style system.
|
|
|
Post by häšhtå.gdālėÿ on Jun 1, 2020 16:43:34 GMT -5
Sports would be a lot better if top seeds could select their opponents for each round of the playoffs in a challenge-style system. Pitch that idea to whoever buys the XFL next! That’s a gimmick fit for a young upstart league who’s trying to establish an identity.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2020 17:39:13 GMT -5
I think sabermetrics in baseball are good in the sense that some times traditional numbers are misleading. For example, Tim Anderson won the batting title in 2019. Completely deserved and nothing can take that away from him. However, his BABIP was .399, which is completely unsustainable. So on one hand, you credit the player for the actual results, but you use the stat to determine whether it is repeatable (I'd bet good money it's not). That's where I think sabermetrics are useful. But as you guys mentioned, if you use it as the be all/end all, then yeah, that's too simplistic. I think there's something to be said about "big game" players.
Basketball is where I think sabermetrics are a bit ridiculous. Definitely useful, but it's really hard to not see a good player via the eye test. The numbers could be used to back up your opinion, but very rarely will you see a player and go "man he's great" and the numbers are terrible. Where I think it's useful is stuff like usage rate and efficiency, but again, you can usually spot the high usage shot chuckers (past prime Melo, DeRozan, etc) and the efficient guys using your eyes.
|
|
|
Post by Cyno on Jun 1, 2020 17:55:12 GMT -5
Sabremetrics in baseball were something used by Beane for regular season success and perfected by teams who weren't cheap into winning championships.
|
|
Push R Truth
Patti Mayonnaise
Unique and Special Snowflake, and a pants-less heathen.
Perpetually Constipated
Posts: 39,218
|
Post by Push R Truth on Jun 1, 2020 18:30:17 GMT -5
Sabre metrics in baseball were something used by Beane for regular season success and perfected by teams who weren't cheap into winning championships. I think Sabremetrics are a lot like cooking with truffle oil. if you have no clue what a truffle (or championship) is like, you think it's pretty good! If you ever had it before, you know it's obviously not the same thing. Doesn't mean it's not usable, but you can't rely on it to carry a dish/team/championship. It's a good way to be B+ with a hard ceiling cracking you on top of the head.
|
|
|
Post by OVO 40 hunched over like he 80 on Jun 1, 2020 19:25:51 GMT -5
Not sure where to put this but I’m glad Jason Whitlock is unemployed.
|
|
|
Post by Captain Stud Muffin (BLM) on Jun 1, 2020 19:40:27 GMT -5
Not sure where to put this but I’m glad Jason Whitlock is unemployed. He got fired?
|
|