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Post by polarbearpete on Dec 22, 2021 10:02:37 GMT -5
We know that overall numbers have been dropping for years now, and some of that coincides with general trends away from cable across all potential viewers, but what really jumped out to me is the drop in 18-49 viewers. Someone on Reddit put a chart together and it looks like this: Month 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 January 1.15 1.15 .88 .74 .59 February1.13 1.08 .91 .74 .55 March 1.13 1.15 .93 .68 .57 April 1.23 1.22 .89 .58 .58 May .94 .87 .78 .51 .48 June 1.00 .91 .72 .52 .47 July 1.00 .91 .84 .48 .48 August 1.13 .98 .84 .54 .55 September.99 .90 .77 .51 .48 October .95 .85 .74 .53 .45 November.99 .84 .70 .52 .45 December.87 .71 .65 .49 .37 So we're not just talking overall viewership here, we're talking WWE's percentage share of the pie of viewers in the main demographic. That number is in real free fall, and while December could end up being a bit of an outlier given how sharp a drop that is since November, it's still part of a much larger trend. Still, it's enough to keep them in the top 10 for the night, so their next TV rights deal will be worth eleventy-trillion dollars, because cable network executives apparently huff paint most of the day. Their drop is comparable to non-sports programming drops in the same time period. I’m curious to see how things look after Nielsen revamps their system to try to include most streaming platforms, to see how much of the actual audience has been lost versus how many watch via different methods.
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Post by HMARK Center on Dec 22, 2021 10:23:36 GMT -5
We know that overall numbers have been dropping for years now, and some of that coincides with general trends away from cable across all potential viewers, but what really jumped out to me is the drop in 18-49 viewers. Someone on Reddit put a chart together and it looks like this: Month 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 January 1.15 1.15 .88 .74 .59 February1.13 1.08 .91 .74 .55 March 1.13 1.15 .93 .68 .57 April 1.23 1.22 .89 .58 .58 May .94 .87 .78 .51 .48 June 1.00 .91 .72 .52 .47 July 1.00 .91 .84 .48 .48 August 1.13 .98 .84 .54 .55 September.99 .90 .77 .51 .48 October .95 .85 .74 .53 .45 November.99 .84 .70 .52 .45 December.87 .71 .65 .49 .37 So we're not just talking overall viewership here, we're talking WWE's percentage share of the pie of viewers in the main demographic. That number is in real free fall, and while December could end up being a bit of an outlier given how sharp a drop that is since November, it's still part of a much larger trend. Still, it's enough to keep them in the top 10 for the night, so their next TV rights deal will be worth eleventy-trillion dollars, because cable network executives apparently huff paint most of the day. Their drop is comparable to non-sports programming drops in the same time period. I’m curious to see how things look after Nielsen revamps their system to try to include most streaming platforms, to see how much of the actual audience has been lost versus how many watch via different methods. Which shows/cable stations have had a comparable percentage drop?
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Post by polarbearpete on Dec 22, 2021 10:26:58 GMT -5
Their drop is comparable to non-sports programming drops in the same time period. I’m curious to see how things look after Nielsen revamps their system to try to include most streaming platforms, to see how much of the actual audience has been lost versus how many watch via different methods. Which shows/cable stations have had a comparable percentage drop? I’ll try to find the data I had read a few months ago. I believe it was from Brandon Thurston of Wrestlenomics. When you compare to the top entertainment, non-sports non-news shows, there was a similar drop in viewership and demos (with Raw dropping slightly more in some categories). When you include sports and I think news, it looks like a more precipitous drop.
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Post by polarbearpete on Dec 22, 2021 10:41:01 GMT -5
Their drop is comparable to non-sports programming drops in the same time period. I’m curious to see how things look after Nielsen revamps their system to try to include most streaming platforms, to see how much of the actual audience has been lost versus how many watch via different methods. Which shows/cable stations have had a comparable percentage drop? Just looking up a random “big” show. Something like Dancing with the Stars, 18-49 demo Season 29 0.95, Season 30 is 0.74. Total viewership for their fall seasons : Season 23- 10.52 million; season 25- 9.35 million, season 27- 7.12 million, season 28- 6.74, season 29- 6.19, season 30- 4.82
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Post by polarbearpete on Dec 22, 2021 11:38:04 GMT -5
Their drop is comparable to non-sports programming drops in the same time period. I’m curious to see how things look after Nielsen revamps their system to try to include most streaming platforms, to see how much of the actual audience has been lost versus how many watch via different methods. Which shows/cable stations have had a comparable percentage drop? This is probably the chart I was thinking of. Raw’s decline outpaces other shows in general, but not significantly so at least as of when the chart was made in 2020. pbs-twimg-com.cdn.ampproject.org/ii/w820/s/pbs.twimg.com/media/Ec0pR8YXoAAa8Ij?format=png&name=small
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Post by HMARK Center on Dec 22, 2021 11:59:46 GMT -5
Doesn't really answer it for me, unless I'm missing something; it seems that the percentages look at Raw's share of the 18-49 numbers, while the right column is simply showing us the average hard number of 18-49 viewers for the top cable shows.
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Post by polarbearpete on Dec 22, 2021 13:28:22 GMT -5
Doesn't really answer it for me, unless I'm missing something; it seems that the percentages look at Raw's share of the 18-49 numbers, while the right column is simply showing us the average hard number of 18-49 viewers for the top cable shows. That’s not Raw’s share, that’s their rating. A share has to do with percentage of TV’s in use watching a show. The rating is the percentage of the total age group (not just those with TVs in use at the time) watching. I’m pretty sure 1 ratings point in the 18-49 demo has been equal to 1.28 million viewers for a while so it while it’s not a direct comparison because Thurston didn’t have available the top cable shows ratings numbers for that period, it should be fairly accurate percentage-wise.
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Post by HMARK Center on Dec 22, 2021 14:05:13 GMT -5
Doesn't really answer it for me, unless I'm missing something; it seems that the percentages look at Raw's share of the 18-49 numbers, while the right column is simply showing us the average hard number of 18-49 viewers for the top cable shows. That’s not Raw’s share, that’s their rating. A share has to do with percentage of TV’s in use watching a show. The rating is the percentage of the total age group (not just those with TVs in use at the time) watching. I’m pretty sure 1 ratings point in the 18-49 demo has been equal to 1.28 million viewers for a while so it while it’s not a direct comparison because Thurston didn’t have available the top cable shows ratings numbers for that period, it should be fairly accurate percentage-wise. I believe that's 1.28 million for broadcast, since the baseline for ratings is for the approximately +120 million households set up for television; current estimates seem to say that 44% of all households are set up for cable, not sure what percentage of the +120 million that constitutes. That said, it appears to be very unclear what constitutes the difference in measuring broadcast vs. cable ratings numbers anymore, and thus what's actually a percentage of the current viewing audience vs. what's simply a point that reflects the baseline calculations is not really clear, so we can't have 1:1 comparisons based on this data.
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Post by polarbearpete on Dec 22, 2021 14:29:34 GMT -5
That’s not Raw’s share, that’s their rating. A share has to do with percentage of TV’s in use watching a show. The rating is the percentage of the total age group (not just those with TVs in use at the time) watching. I’m pretty sure 1 ratings point in the 18-49 demo has been equal to 1.28 million viewers for a while so it while it’s not a direct comparison because Thurston didn’t have available the top cable shows ratings numbers for that period, it should be fairly accurate percentage-wise. I believe that's 1.28 million for broadcast, since the baseline for ratings is for the approximately +120 million households set up for television; current estimates seem to say that 44% of all households are set up for cable, not sure what percentage of the +120 million that constitutes. That said, it appears to be very unclear what constitutes the difference in measuring broadcast vs. cable ratings numbers anymore, and thus what's actually a percentage of the current viewing audience vs. what's simply a point that reflects the baseline calculations is not really clear, so we can't have 1:1 comparisons based on this data. Here you go, the correlation between 18-49 viewers and 18-49 rating. It’s near 1 to 1. i0.wp.com/wrestlenomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/image-9.png?resize=768%2C394&ssl=1
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