A Gambling Look at the Rumble/ Over-Under Thread

[DukeDavis]

I figured this was different enough to merit it's own thread rather than go in the Official Rumble thread, but anyway...

I like taking a gambling look at things. I never bet any money on anything, primarily because I'm poor enough already without having to piss it away on my faulty, skewed sports premonitions. But knowing the line of a football game or seeing the preseason odds of who could go all the way, it can sometimes make things at least a little more interesting.

Now that the Rumble participants have all been announced (give or take a few surprise substitutions), I figured I'd think up some odds on who I think has the best chance of winning, entirely from a smark perspective (in other words, Khali would theorhetically be a tough guy to get out and will probably get a few eliminations himself, but the chances of the WWE having him win are less than someone like HBK or even Punk). So here's my opinion on what the odds look like, in order of best chance.

Undertaker 3/1
Michaels 5/1 (adjusted from 8/1)
Edge 9/1
Orton 9/1
Kane 10/1
Booker 11/1
Benoit 12/1 (adjusted from 8/1)
CM Punk 15/1
Jeff Hardy 15/1
RVD 16/1
Nitro 16/1
Finlay 16/1
Shelton 20/1
Carlito 20/1
Matt Hardy 22/1
Flair 25/1
Khali 30/1
Kenny 35/1 (adjusted from 25/1)
Chavo 35/1
Sabu 35/1
Masters 40/1
Sandman 40/1
Dreamer 45/1
Holly 60/1
MVP 65/1
Super Crazy 100/1
Helms 120/1
Viscera 150/1
Thorn 200/1
Miz 500/1

Of course, these are just my uninformed opinions; I haven't watched a full episode of just about anything in at least 6 months. I'm just paying attention from a distance and reading reports and such.

So, does anyone here disagree with some of these odds? Any of you have any dark horse picks who could win you some money?

[heffer111]

in san antonio?? i think HBK is on par with undertaker

[Gopher Mod]

I would actually put Michaels at 5/1. He's been the other major name thrown around for being the winner for the Rumble. Some of the others odds (Orton, Booker, Dykstra) should have been higher, and Khali's odds should be a bit lower (around 25/1). Otherwise, nice job.

[DukeDavis]

I only put Khali kind of high in case they wanted to connect it with the inevitable Hogan match and just pass out the main event title shots over the next two months.

I didn't even know that it was in San Antonio; that helps Shawn's odds alot. I'll adjust that.

As for Orton, Booker and Dykstra: I'd been hearing a lot of chatter about Orton vs Cena, so I kept Orton's odds favorable. Smackdown wrestlers seem to have better luck in the Rumbles because it's much easier to elevate them with the Rumble than develop the storyline, which seems to be WWE's tactic with SD over the last few years. So I liked Booker's chances if Taker doesn't win, probably leading to a Booker/Batista/Taker 3 way at WM. As for Kenny, you're probably right. I'm giving him a little too much credit. I'll fix his as well.

[ghettooverlord]

Give me 50 bucks on Khali.

[heffer111]

and give me one dollar on miz

['Sweet n' Sour' A. A. Estrada]

The hell? Why is Thorne so low on the list? He has an outside chance of winning.

I'll put ten bucks on him and clean up when he wins.

Vampire Champion!

[DukeDavis]

The way I'm looking at it, the only way an ECW guy wins is if he's over enough to jump to a different show; there's no way they're wasting the Rumble shot on an ECW main event. I think the only ECW guys with even the slightest shot of winning are Punk and RVD, with a slight, slight, slight, like 1% chance going to Dreamer, if they wanted to go for the Rocky angle, although I actually think Flair's got a kinda-decent shot for that exact reason. Although not that much better than anyone else I've ranked higher than him.

Flair is my dark horse, though. "Dark horse" means who we want to win, right? No? Damn.

[Shy Guy]

gambling? you have a 1 in 30 chance your prediction is correct.

[bstrathie]

So judging by this, the most likely final four are Undertaker, Benoit, Michaels and Edge/Orton. I don't see Benoit in the final four but the rest seem right. RVD more likely there instead of Benoit. But that's just my opinion

[DukeDavis]

On the surface, sure. But by that logic, Blade has a 1 in 32 chance of the Lions winning the Super Bowl in 2007, whereas Vegas probably has them sitting at 500 to 1 right now.

['Sweet n' Sour' A. A. Estrada]

tmizzle521 said:

gambling? you have a 1 in 30 chance your prediction is correct.

Some guys have better odds of winning than others. I can pretty much promise you that Matt Hardy won't be main eventing Wrestlemania, for instance.

[DukeDavis]

bstrathie said:

So judging by this, the most likely final four are Undertaker, Benoit, Michaels and Edge/Orton. I don't see Benoit in the final four but the rest seem right. RVD more likely there instead of Benoit. But that's just my opinion

Perhaps, but then again, there's been rumbles where you know dudes in the final four aren't winning. Like in 1994, when you knew Fatu wasn't gonna win it ahead of Michaels, Bret or Mr Luger Mr Luger.

I don't know why I'm so high on Benoit right now. I guess it's probably a death sentence for him to be entering as the US titleholder, meaning he'd probably have to lose it which just kills his momentum...

UNLESS

They do a Bret/WM X thing and have him wrestle twice in one night. He loses the US belt to Chavo or Kennedy or something, but magically comes back and beats... hmm. There's no strong, WM-Main event caliber heel on SD anymore besides Booker. And as much as I'd like to see it, they probably won't go in with Booker vs Benoit.

Come on Batista heel turn...







On second thought, yeah, I don't really see very many situations where Benoit can win it. I'll change his odds, too.

[Rapper & Actor Sammy Davis III]

Although not 100% on topic, of all the Rumbles the average winner's number was 17 (actually 17.6) although nobody has ever won with that number. HBK did win in 96 as number 18. Looked it up and did the math myself.

[Scarlet Moon]

gregmatsunaga said:

Although not 100% on topic, of all the Rumbles the average winner's number was 17 (actually 17.6) although nobody has ever won with that number.

Round it up.

[kickassforumguyme]

HBK may or may not win. Thats my prediction.

[DukeDavis]

The more I'm thinking about it, as I'm posting on my website linked below, it pretty much has to be HBK. I think it'll just be HBK wins in San Antonio, then loses the title shot to either Edge or Orton at NWO. Whoever gets the shot is fed to Cena, the other one fights HBK.

Whereas with Taker, Teddy Long is in love enough with him that he could probably just make the match next week with or without the Rumble.

[mainsupreme]

Im so looking forward to this rumble.
Orton, taker or HBK will win, I love it

[Hiroshi Hase]

samsanov316 said:

The more I'm thinking about it, as I'm posting on my website linked below, it pretty much has to be HBK. I think it'll just be HBK wins in San Antonio, then loses the title shot to either Edge or Orton at NWO. Whoever gets the shot is fed to Cena, the other one fights HBK.

Whereas with Taker, Teddy Long is in love enough with him that he could probably just make the match next week with or without the Rumble.

A small problem with that, No Way Out is a Smackdown PPV, so Edge/Orton wouldn't factor in to that equation.

[Mr Captain Falcon]

I wish Benoit had as great odds as HBK did. HBK's odds should be better, hometown hero, former 2 time winner, defending the honor of his fallen friend, he's got lots of momentum.

Benoit is US Champ, then again, when Cena was booked in the mania main event he was US Champ too, but lost it before the ppv.