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Post by romafan87 on Jan 6, 2009 15:54:37 GMT -5
Yeah, a few of the posters don't really know what flop means. Over 90% of Hollywood movies don't cover budget after theatrical release and DVD sales. 90%. I'm guessing this movie cost, at most $10 mil to make, and that's being very liberal with the number, considering the most expensive direct to DVD movie ever made cost $20 million. Source: web.archive.org/web/20060515194442/http://www.dvdexclusive.com/article.asp?articleID=2259 If it cost $10 mil to make, it would need to sell 1,000,000 DVDs to break exactly even if they are selling them as low as $10 a pop, which is probably around what Blockbuster buys them for from the distributer, if not a little less. According to Wiki, there are 8483 Blockbusters operating worldwide. Each Blockbuster would have to then purchase 118 copies per store for rental. Let's assume, on the conservative side, they carry 50, as they do with most new releases, including direct to DVD movies, but less than the 100 or so they carry for popular theatrical releases. That means for Blockbuster alone, there are 424,150 copies sold, but probably much more. Remember, this is a conservative estimate. Let's assume, then, that all other rental outlets worldwide combined purchase twice the total that Blockbuster purchases, again, a liberal number, and probably much higher. That means 1,272,450 copies are already sold, well over the number needed to break even. Add in to the fact that chains like Best Buy, Circuit City, etc. all have to pay more than what Blockbuster pays to carry the movie, that it's a popular franchise, it's got the WWE marketing arm behind it, etc. and you have a can't miss straight to DVD release that will likely turn a decent profit. Hell, American Pie: Band Camp apparently sold 1 million copies at retail in its first WEEK despite retaining only two of the original cast members! Source: www.variety.com/article/VR1117935319.html?categoryid=20&cs=1. This movie likely has to sell very few copies outside of the rental chains to turn a profit, and that doesn't even include promotional agreements to carry the movie at said chains. And by media studies standards, anything that turns a profit isn't a flop. 90% of movies do not make back their budget. Isn't it strange that this movie will? |
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Post by wrestlesmarks on Jan 6, 2009 16:03:15 GMT -5
Does anyone actually like Mr. Kennedy enough to go buy a DVD? I don't think so...
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Magician under the moonlight
Bill S. Preston, Esq.
Always Beaten To The Punchline. Always.
A magician and a thief. That's Badass
Posts: 15,727
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Post by Magician under the moonlight on Jan 6, 2009 16:13:33 GMT -5
The only way I can see it flop is if everybody manages to watch it online. otherwise no!
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Post by azrael502 on Jan 6, 2009 16:21:02 GMT -5
Flop Flop Flop
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Post by romafan87 on Jan 6, 2009 16:28:45 GMT -5
Does anyone actually like Mr. Kennedy enough to go buy a DVD? I don't think so... Buy? No. Rent? Yeah. See No Evil, The Condemned, and The Marine were all top rentals. There's no way the chains pass this up at all. And if they even remotely support, i.e. 1/4 to 1/2 of the support of the previous three, this movie will EASILY turn a profit, thus, not a flop. |
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Post by CrazySting on Jan 6, 2009 16:47:38 GMT -5
Yeah, a few of the posters don't really know what flop means. Over 90% of Hollywood movies don't cover budget after theatrical release and DVD sales. 90%. I'm guessing this movie cost, at most $10 mil to make, and that's being very liberal with the number, considering the most expensive direct to DVD movie ever made cost $20 million. Source: web.archive.org/web/20060515194442/http://www.dvdexclusive.com/article.asp?articleID=2259 If it cost $10 mil to make, it would need to sell 1,000,000 DVDs to break exactly even if they are selling them as low as $10 a pop, which is probably around what Blockbuster buys them for from the distributer, if not a little less. According to Wiki, there are 8483 Blockbusters operating worldwide. Each Blockbuster would have to then purchase 118 copies per store for rental. Let's assume, on the conservative side, they carry 50, as they do with most new releases, including direct to DVD movies, but less than the 100 or so they carry for popular theatrical releases. That means for Blockbuster alone, there are 424,150 copies sold, but probably much more. Remember, this is a conservative estimate. Let's assume, then, that all other rental outlets worldwide combined purchase twice the total that Blockbuster purchases, again, a liberal number, and probably much higher. That means 1,272,450 copies are already sold, well over the number needed to break even. Add in to the fact that chains like Best Buy, Circuit City, etc. all have to pay more than what Blockbuster pays to carry the movie, that it's a popular franchise, it's got the WWE marketing arm behind it, etc. and you have a can't miss straight to DVD release that will likely turn a decent profit. Hell, American Pie: Band Camp apparently sold 1 million copies at retail in its first WEEK despite retaining only two of the original cast members! Source: www.variety.com/article/VR1117935319.html?categoryid=20&cs=1. This movie likely has to sell very few copies outside of the rental chains to turn a profit, and that doesn't even include promotional agreements to carry the movie at said chains. And by media studies standards, anything that turns a profit isn't a flop. 90% of movies do not make back their budget. Isn't it strange that this movie will? If 90% of movies don't make a profit, why are people always making them? I've heard before most movies don't makemoney, so it seems weird to me that its such a big business. Although,WWE movies make money. I think even the condemned which was a theatrical flop, made a lot on dvds. |
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Post by Robbymac on Jan 6, 2009 16:49:08 GMT -5
Yeah, a few of the posters don't really know what flop means. Over 90% of Hollywood movies don't cover budget after theatrical release and DVD sales. 90%. I'm guessing this movie cost, at most $10 mil to make, and that's being very liberal with the number, considering the most expensive direct to DVD movie ever made cost $20 million. Source: web.archive.org/web/20060515194442/http://www.dvdexclusive.com/article.asp?articleID=2259 If it cost $10 mil to make, it would need to sell 1,000,000 DVDs to break exactly even if they are selling them as low as $10 a pop, which is probably around what Blockbuster buys them for from the distributer, if not a little less. According to Wiki, there are 8483 Blockbusters operating worldwide. Each Blockbuster would have to then purchase 118 copies per store for rental. Let's assume, on the conservative side, they carry 50, as they do with most new releases, including direct to DVD movies, but less than the 100 or so they carry for popular theatrical releases. That means for Blockbuster alone, there are 424,150 copies sold, but probably much more. Remember, this is a conservative estimate. Let's assume, then, that all other rental outlets worldwide combined purchase twice the total that Blockbuster purchases, again, a liberal number, and probably much higher. That means 1,272,450 copies are already sold, well over the number needed to break even. Add in to the fact that chains like Best Buy, Circuit City, etc. all have to pay more than what Blockbuster pays to carry the movie, that it's a popular franchise, it's got the WWE marketing arm behind it, etc. and you have a can't miss straight to DVD release that will likely turn a decent profit. Hell, American Pie: Band Camp apparently sold 1 million copies at retail in its first WEEK despite retaining only two of the original cast members! Source: www.variety.com/article/VR1117935319.html?categoryid=20&cs=1. This movie likely has to sell very few copies outside of the rental chains to turn a profit, and that doesn't even include promotional agreements to carry the movie at said chains. And by media studies standards, anything that turns a profit isn't a flop. 90% of movies do not make back their budget. Isn't it strange that this movie will? If 90% of movies don't make a profit, why are people always making them? I've heard before most movies don't makemoney, so it seems weird to me that its such a big business. Although,WWE movies make money. I think even the condemned which was a theatrical flop, made a lot on dvds. Because the ones that do turn a profit turn a HUGE profit. Its like small businesses. 98% fail, but the ones that succeed make the owner a very rich person. |
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Post by macdaddysquid on Jan 6, 2009 16:56:37 GMT -5
most straight to dvds are a success. Take the second behind enemy lines for example. If it flopped there would not be Columbia. The series has a fan base and what guy doesn't like a good army flick? I say that not only will it not flop but it will be a great success
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Post by romafan87 on Jan 6, 2009 16:56:59 GMT -5
If 90% of movies don't make a profit, why are people always making them? I've heard before most movies don't makemoney, so it seems weird to me that its such a big business. Although,WWE movies make money. I think even the condemned which was a theatrical flop, made a lot on dvds. Because the ones that do turn a profit turn a HUGE profit. Its like small businesses. 98% fail, but the ones that succeed make the owner a very rich person. Bingo. Straight to DVD movies are almost always guarenteed money makers but they "hardly" make anything, maybe .5 to 3 million-ish. When a movie DOES hit it big in the box office, it covers all of their failures. Keep in mind, a lot of that 90% are movies that don't quite make budget. For instance, if a theatrical release costs $50 mil and it only gets $49 mil, it's still a failure. |
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Post by romafan87 on Jan 6, 2009 16:59:30 GMT -5
most straight to dvds are a success. Take the second behind enemy lines for example. If it flopped there would not be Columbia. The series has a fan base and what guy doesn't like a good army flick? I say that not only will it not flop but it will be a great success I agree. I think it will turn a decent sized, ie 5 to 10 mil profit, comparable to "See No Evil". Not only that, but do you realize the positive image the WWE gets for having someone star in a movie? Even if its a movie they produce, people will stop and think "oh, wow, the WWE has movies now?" If they can make money and get even 100 people to start watching again from that, it's icing on the cake.. |
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Garee
King Koopa
I miss the old days
Posts: 11,338
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Post by Garee on Jan 6, 2009 17:21:17 GMT -5
It's direct to DVD, I wouldn't expect much
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Post by Well, Youre Wrong on Jan 6, 2009 17:35:19 GMT -5
It won't flop even if it's a Straight to DVD release. I think it will do well with rentals and such.
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Post by Jay Carroll on Jan 6, 2009 17:36:30 GMT -5
Doytch Memorial Post: Yes with all the points:D
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Post by YellowJacketY2J on Jan 6, 2009 18:10:27 GMT -5
It won't flop, but that doesn't mean it will be extremely popular or successful. But, that doesn't mean it won't garner rentals or even purchases (it will easily get most of its profit from rentals). For example, those mockbusters from Asylum (Transmorphers, Death Racers, The 18-Year-Old Virgin, etc.) may not be liked or talked about much. But, they did make the small company money. Usually when a movie is straight-to-dvd, the budget isn't relatively big, giving the film a good chance to make money. So, as a flop, I don't see Colombia doing so. It will be in a bargain bin someday at Wal-Mart, but so do some big movies years after their release.
P.S. The only competition Colombia will have in rentals and sales this week is Pineapple Express, which is catering to around the same age group and gender. But, most people do usually rent two or three movies at the same time, so Colombia could still make nice pocket change this week.
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Post by Hanz Moleman on Jan 6, 2009 19:13:41 GMT -5
Yeah, a few of the posters don't really know what flop means. Over 90% of Hollywood movies don't cover budget after theatrical release and DVD sales. 90%. I'm guessing this movie cost, at most $10 mil to make, and that's being very liberal with the number, considering the most expensive direct to DVD movie ever made cost $20 million. Source: web.archive.org/web/20060515194442/http://www.dvdexclusive.com/article.asp?articleID=2259 If it cost $10 mil to make, it would need to sell 1,000,000 DVDs to break exactly even if they are selling them as low as $10 a pop, which is probably around what Blockbuster buys them for from the distributer, if not a little less. According to Wiki, there are 8483 Blockbusters operating worldwide. Each Blockbuster would have to then purchase 118 copies per store for rental. Let's assume, on the conservative side, they carry 50, as they do with most new releases, including direct to DVD movies, but less than the 100 or so they carry for popular theatrical releases. That means for Blockbuster alone, there are 424,150 copies sold, but probably much more. Remember, this is a conservative estimate. Let's assume, then, that all other rental outlets worldwide combined purchase twice the total that Blockbuster purchases, again, a liberal number, and probably much higher. That means 1,272,450 copies are already sold, well over the number needed to break even. Add in to the fact that chains like Best Buy, Circuit City, etc. all have to pay more than what Blockbuster pays to carry the movie, that it's a popular franchise, it's got the WWE marketing arm behind it, etc. and you have a can't miss straight to DVD release that will likely turn a decent profit. Hell, American Pie: Band Camp apparently sold 1 million copies at retail in its first WEEK despite retaining only two of the original cast members! Source: www.variety.com/article/VR1117935319.html?categoryid=20&cs=1. This movie likely has to sell very few copies outside of the rental chains to turn a profit, and that doesn't even include promotional agreements to carry the movie at said chains. And by media studies standards, anything that turns a profit isn't a flop. 90% of movies do not make back their budget. Isn't it strange that this movie will? If 90% of movies don't make a profit, why are people always making them? I've heard before most movies don't makemoney, so it seems weird to me that its such a big business. Although,WWE movies make money. I think even the condemned which was a theatrical flop, made a lot on dvds. Film is an art form, so no matter the turn out, there will always be movies. |
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Mac
Bill S. Preston, Esq.
Sigs/Avatars cannot exceed 1MB
Posts: 16,502
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Post by Mac on Jan 6, 2009 19:31:12 GMT -5
Theres been people camped out in front of best buy for weeks for this DVD
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Post by BlackJackRobby on Jan 7, 2009 0:54:17 GMT -5
decent reviews and acctual name.
It will sell good for a straight to DVD release.
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cactussam
Bubba Ho-Tep
The Greatest United States Champion of All Time! Because this building is apropos!
Posts: 572
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Post by cactussam on Jan 7, 2009 1:01:29 GMT -5
It'll only flop in that it won't outsell/outrent The Dark Knight or Death Race, which describes practically every movie on the market right now. I should give you a magic trick for using Death Race and Dark Knight in the same sentence. As much as I assume that this is terrible, the WWE crowd is the audience that buys these atrocious direct to dvd flicks (BTW, for every good one there are 500 bad ones, I should know, I work small independents in sound departments.) so in the end they may come out a little ahead. But comparisons to the Marine should not be ignored because Kennedy is nowhere near the "name" that Cena is. By that I mean, I can say John Cena to some non-wrestling fan and they may have an idea who he is. I say Ken Kennedy, may as well just start talking about Ice Train or Robbie Rage from WCW. |
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