Big Bad Brad
Wade Wilson
Big Bad Brad
Tournament Master
Posts: 27,407
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Post by Big Bad Brad on Apr 11, 2012 20:47:05 GMT -5
We could lynch somebody but really who could we lynch during the first day? I mean we really don't know enough about anybody to vote accurately we don't really want this to turn out the same as the last Mafia game do we.
I don't mind if we don't lynch someone on day 1 but if we don't get someone during this day phase I hope we can during the next day phase at least.
The last Mafia game two mafias were killed during the first two night phases I don't think lightning would strike twice like that, in other words I doubt that would happen in this game.
The odds are we will lose some town members during the night phase and unlike the last game I wasn't worried about night kills because I was immune to night kills but this game I'm not immune and I'm not in the mafia so I could be taken out very easily.
So lets decide what to do Lynch or no lynch that is the question?
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Jazzman
King Koopa
Trombone Shorty > Your Favorite Musician
Posts: 11,231
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Post by Jazzman on Apr 11, 2012 21:43:31 GMT -5
no we don't have to i say wait just a bit longer I know its your first game, so I want to give you a quick heads up. We aren't allowed to edit our posts. Instead, make a new post (even if it means you're double posting) and start with EBWOP (Edited by way of post), and then clarify anything that needed fixing. Also, seeing the post before hand, tiny grammar mistakes can easily be forgiven in a game like this, but editing posts is a big no-no. And as for Cage/Latino Meat's desire, I still have to disagree. Yeah, if we lynch a mafia, we're in control. But if we lose one of our people then we're in even worse shape than if we do nothing. See though this is where this doesn't make sense. The town numbers wise is always in control over the mafia. It's worth taking a shot or two early to get information out there because numbers wise after day one we still have an overwhelming numbers majority. Odds are we're probably looking at 4 kills a night max based on the last game and most others. One (possibly 2, if the godfather has the extra kill ability from last game) by the mafia, a serial killer, and a town vig. Even if all kills are town, which the odds of happening are around 16.5% with a 17/5 town/mafia split, numbers go from roughly 17-5 (16-6) to 12-5 (11-6). Therefore, in the name of the Numb3rs... it's a worthwhile risk because it's very hard to hit all town.
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TOO SWEET
Grimlock
Not a doctor, nor do I play one on tv.
Posts: 13,109
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Post by TOO SWEET on Apr 11, 2012 22:00:40 GMT -5
I know its your first game, so I want to give you a quick heads up. We aren't allowed to edit our posts. Instead, make a new post (even if it means you're double posting) and start with EBWOP (Edited by way of post), and then clarify anything that needed fixing. Also, seeing the post before hand, tiny grammar mistakes can easily be forgiven in a game like this, but editing posts is a big no-no. And as for Cage/Latino Meat's desire, I still have to disagree. Yeah, if we lynch a mafia, we're in control. But if we lose one of our people then we're in even worse shape than if we do nothing. See though this is where this doesn't make sense. The town numbers wise is always in control over the mafia. It's worth taking a shot or two early to get information out there because numbers wise after day one we still have an overwhelming numbers majority. Odds are we're probably looking at 4 kills a night max based on the last game and most others. One (possibly 2, if the godfather has the extra kill ability from last game) by the mafia, a serial killer, and a town vig. Even if all kills are town, which the odds of happening are around 16.5% with a 17/5 town/mafia split, numbers go from roughly 17-5 (16-6) to 12-5 (11-6). Therefore, in the name of the Numb3rs... it's a worthwhile risk because it's very hard to hit all town. We've all been angry before. Some let it go, some don't. There's nothing wrong with being angry, its all about how you deal with it. If we let our anger fester, we have to turn it into something positive.
If you want to deal with it through lynching, go ahead. Just as long as we focus our anger.OOC: I wasn't really approaching it from a numbers perspective, more of just a common sense one. But that is a good point. I'm just saying that day one, with the least info possible, this doesn't seem like the right time. But if a vote starts forming against someone, and if there is convincing evidence (which'll be hard since its so early), then I'll join in. But again, its risky. Because while we're blindly guessing, we could end up taking out an important role. Like a doctor we'll need, or something.
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Gus Richlen Was Wrong
Patti Mayonnaise
Metal Maestro: Co-winner of the FAN Idol Throwdown!
Fun while it lasted
Posts: 38,509
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Post by Gus Richlen Was Wrong on Apr 11, 2012 22:22:15 GMT -5
And to be honest, I have nothing more to add other than I agree with not lynching someone unless we're sure.
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J
Don Corleone
Posts: 1,915
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Post by J on Apr 11, 2012 22:22:20 GMT -5
Well F**k...shame about that little Turner.
Looks like we're having some of the same troubles as the last mafia game.
Of course if we do decide to lynch it's based on nothing but a damn hunch. I should know all about those, I fell victim to a hunch last game.
However, it's pretty damn unlikely that we will luck out and a couple mafiosos will get taken out during night phase.
With all that said I am in favor of a Day 1 lynch. But let's not jump the gun. We have some time left, we needed to use all of it and not rush into a lynch.
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Brainbustaaah!
Hank Scorpio
Best Damn Finishing Move Period
Posts: 5,600
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Post by Brainbustaaah! on Apr 11, 2012 22:24:17 GMT -5
I've seen firsthand what happens when we run in all gung-ho and jump at straws to lynch the first name that sounds good. I'm going to err on the side of caution. Until we do a little more investigative work, I'm not in favor of pulling the trigger on anyone.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2012 22:31:10 GMT -5
If we learned anything from the WWE Mafia, we're more likely to end up killing a Mafia in the Night Phase without knowing it, then we are straight up lynching someone on the first day. Hopefully we've got someone with investigative powers that can help us out. So far no one has come off very suspicious to me, but we've still got time for someone to show their true colors.
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Post by stinger on Apr 11, 2012 23:04:52 GMT -5
Can we get a list of everyone who is in the game?
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Post by Brandon Walsh is Insane. on Apr 11, 2012 23:24:13 GMT -5
Good idea... we can just lynch whomever is inactive
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2012 23:30:58 GMT -5
Good idea... we can just lynch whomever is inactive Only if you immediately distance yourself from the idea after we do so.
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Fiddleford H. McGucket
El Dandy
My Mind's been gone for 30-odd years! Can't Break what's already broken!
Posts: 8,748
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Post by Fiddleford H. McGucket on Apr 11, 2012 23:32:57 GMT -5
I think we should just lynch someone at random.......Brother! Just to show those Mafia goons we mean business!
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Post by El Cokehead del Knife Fight on Apr 11, 2012 23:38:46 GMT -5
I think we should just lynch someone at random.......Brother! Just to show those Mafia goons we mean business! Well Brother, if you are who you say you are then you're in Immortal. Therefore you're not town aligned. Therefore you done goofed.
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RKTaker
Bill S. Preston, Esq.
Posts: 16,307
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Post by RKTaker on Apr 11, 2012 23:42:52 GMT -5
so has it been decided on what we're gonna do
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Post by Brandon Walsh is Insane. on Apr 11, 2012 23:47:14 GMT -5
Good idea... we can just lynch whomever is inactive Only if you immediately distance yourself from the idea after we do so. I was agreeing with Stinger. Whatever we decide, we should do it together.
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lodirulz
Hank Scorpio
Live as the color red in a world of black and white.
Posts: 6,412
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Post by lodirulz on Apr 12, 2012 6:00:48 GMT -5
Can we get a list of everyone who is in the game? Sure. And I'll do it in the least controversial way I know: Not Voting: Everyone (Big Bad Brad, Street Spartan, Notorious, Hawkeye Jefferson Winger, Gus Richlen, Latino Meat, Bergman, RKTaker, J, Sharpshooter, Doc Sivana, Untouchable, Jonathan Michaels, Haydenism, Sweet N Sour, Wolf Hurricane, Brainbustaaah, stinger4christ, Connor Mackenzie, Evil M, Cageking, Magiconz.
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Post by Triple H buried SnS on Apr 12, 2012 9:05:47 GMT -5
Hey, wouldn't people with names like 'evil m' and 'notorious' be obvious suspects? I hate not lynching on day one. Cause if we don't its just a wasted day where we have the control. Waiting til nightfall guarantees at least two non-mafia kills(since they are almost assuredly given two night kills and they know who the other mafia members are), and the town vigilante is as blind about who to go after as the rest of the town. So to bergman's point of the probability of 4 kills at night being all town. The odds are a little better that 16.5% due to two kills being guarantee'd that they will be town(or third party) since the mafia knows who the other mafia members are and there's not chance of them night killing one of their own. Meaning the split after the guaranteed non-mafia kills to be 15/5... giving a ~42.9% chance of the other two kills being town as well. Obviously, there are variables such as one shot abilitys, the paranoid townie, etc that could play into it... i can only go with what is known(or most likely true).
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Jazzman
King Koopa
Trombone Shorty > Your Favorite Musician
Posts: 11,231
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Post by Jazzman on Apr 12, 2012 9:32:28 GMT -5
Hey, wouldn't people with names like 'evil m' and 'notorious' be obvious suspects? I hate not lynching on day one. Cause if we don't its just a wasted day where we have the control. Waiting til nightfall guarantees at least two non-mafia kills(since they are almost assuredly given two night kills and they know who the other mafia members are), and the town vigilante is as blind about who to go after as the rest of the town. So to bergman's point of the probability of 4 kills at night being all town. The odds are a little better that 16.5% due to two kills being guarantee'd that they will be town(or third party) since the mafia knows who the other mafia members are and there's not chance of them night killing one of their own. Meaning the split after the guaranteed non-mafia kills to be 15/5... giving a ~42.9% chance of the other two kills being town as well. Obviously, there are variables such as one shot abilitys, the paranoid townie, etc that could play into it... i can only go with what is known(or most likely true). I'm interested in your math on this. *Goes to his whiteboard* Let's say that your right that there are going to be two kills coming toward the town in night phase from mafia. Those guarenteed events skews the probability to roughly 40% of killing all town but that factors in the mafia doesn't kill a third party. If you factor in the possibility of the mafia hitting a third party it sets the probability of killing all town on phase one to 30% Now move, you're in my spot.
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RKTaker
Bill S. Preston, Esq.
Posts: 16,307
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Post by RKTaker on Apr 12, 2012 9:37:59 GMT -5
Hey, wouldn't people with names like 'evil m' and 'notorious' be obvious suspects? I hate not lynching on day one. Cause if we don't its just a wasted day where we have the control. Waiting til nightfall guarantees at least two non-mafia kills(since they are almost assuredly given two night kills and they know who the other mafia members are), and the town vigilante is as blind about who to go after as the rest of the town. So to bergman's point of the probability of 4 kills at night being all town. The odds are a little better that 16.5% due to two kills being guarantee'd that they will be town(or third party) since the mafia knows who the other mafia members are and there's not chance of them night killing one of their own. Meaning the split after the guaranteed non-mafia kills to be 15/5... giving a ~42.9% chance of the other two kills being town as well. Obviously, there are variables such as one shot abilitys, the paranoid townie, etc that could play into it... i can only go with what is known(or most likely true). i say we should wait and see who's inactive first before voting to lynch someone
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Post by Triple H buried SnS on Apr 12, 2012 9:59:38 GMT -5
@ berg... hey, you grouped third party in with the town, so did i. But that plays into the variables I mentioned at the end.
Most third parties need to work with town moreso than mafia. I was third party last game as a lyncher. If I was unable to lynch my target, I would still be working with town to find mafia. A serial killer would be wise to try to kill all mafia first, then turn attention towards town. Now that doesn't mean that town and 3rd parties are going to be all buddy buddy, but they have a common enemy that has an advantage over both.
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Post by Connor Mackenzie on Apr 12, 2012 10:10:13 GMT -5
@ berg... hey, you grouped third party in with the town, so did i. But that plays into the variables I mentioned at the end. Most third parties need to work with town moreso than mafia. I was third party last game as a lyncher. If I was unable to lynch my target, I would still be working with town to find mafia. A serial killer would be wise to try to kill all mafia first, then turn attention towards town. Now that doesn't mean that town and 3rd parties are going to be all buddy buddy, but they have a common enemy that has an advantage over both. I had to re-read that because at first I thought it said groped third party. ;D
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