Jazzman
King Koopa
Trombone Shorty > Your Favorite Musician
Posts: 11,231
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Post by Jazzman on Apr 12, 2012 10:28:33 GMT -5
@ berg... hey, you grouped third party in with the town, so did i. But that plays into the variables I mentioned at the end. Most third parties need to work with town moreso than mafia. I was third party last game as a lyncher. If I was unable to lynch my target, I would still be working with town to find mafia. A serial killer would be wise to try to kill all mafia first, then turn attention towards town. Now that doesn't mean that town and 3rd parties are going to be all buddy buddy, but they have a common enemy that has an advantage over both. My question is how do you reach the percentage you get, it is as easy as just flipping with the percentage of the remaining fraction? Because I'm multiplying each fraction by itself against the next one because you need a string of consectutive specific events. Ergo you take 17/22 x 16/21 x 15/20 x 14/19 x 13/18 to get the probably with 4 mafia and a sk of hitting five straight town at 16.5 percent like i've posted above.
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Post by Triple H buried SnS on Apr 12, 2012 10:53:06 GMT -5
My question is how do you reach the percentage you get, it is as easy as just flipping with the percentage of the remaining fraction? Because I'm multiplying each fraction by itself against the next one because you need a string of consectutive specific events. Ergo you take 17/22 x 16/21 x 15/20 x 14/19 x 13/18 to get the probably with 4 mafia and a sk of hitting five straight town at 16.5 percent like i've posted above. 1) That's random probibility. Mafia kills aren't random. They know who they are killing is not mafia. So instead of 17/22 chance that the first one killed is not mafia, it is 17/17(since mafia wont kill mafia).. or 100%. 2) four mafia kills a night? I think not, unless you know something the rest of us don't. I would expect two mafia kills(one by the goup, one by an individual) with a possibility that the group gets two night kills a night due to game size. Add in a vigilante which is clueless as to whom is mafia or not, and a SK which is in the same shape and you only have two "random" kills on a given night... though those people will never kill themselves, so that has to be factored in. So the probability string is as follows. If two mafia kills a night... 17/17 x 16/16 x 14/19 x 13/18 = 53.2% that all night kills are against town. If three mafia kills a night... 17/17 x 16/16 x 15/15 x 13/18 x 12/17 = 51% Not sure what I did wrong the first time to come up with 42.9%. But definately not near the 16.5% range.
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TOO SWEET
Grimlock
Not a doctor, nor do I play one on tv.
Posts: 13,109
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Post by TOO SWEET on Apr 12, 2012 10:57:23 GMT -5
So, what is all this math leading to? Does the higher percentage mean we should lynch or not?
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Post by Triple H buried SnS on Apr 12, 2012 11:01:56 GMT -5
So, what is all this math leading to? Does the higher percentage mean we should lynch or not? To me it means we have a ~ 50% chance that we'll lose 3-4 town members at the chance of getting one of the mafia members tonight regardless of what we do. But if we do nothing on day one, we'll be in the same shape on day two with nothing to go with. Not lynching on day 1 gives mafia an extra day to stay hidden.
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Jazzman
King Koopa
Trombone Shorty > Your Favorite Musician
Posts: 11,231
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Post by Jazzman on Apr 12, 2012 11:15:57 GMT -5
So, what is all this math leading to? Does the higher percentage mean we should lynch or not? I'm just trying something different from what I've normally done. Apparently my calcuations were a bit off and I hope you all know how hard it is for me to say that. Game theory wise, even with the higher percentage, it's a worthy risk to take weighed against the information that we can be given by making a move.
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Post by Triple H buried SnS on Apr 12, 2012 11:22:38 GMT -5
I'm just trying something different from what I've normally done. Apparently my calcuations were a bit off and I hope you all know how hard it is for me to say that. Game theory wise, even with the higher percentage, it's a worthy risk to take weighed against the information that we can be given by making a move. And even though berg and I disagreed on the numbers... we agree on our stance about a day 1 lynch.
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Jazzman
King Koopa
Trombone Shorty > Your Favorite Musician
Posts: 11,231
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Post by Jazzman on Apr 12, 2012 11:30:24 GMT -5
I'm just trying something different from what I've normally done. Apparently my calcuations were a bit off and I hope you all know how hard it is for me to say that. Game theory wise, even with the higher percentage, it's a worthy risk to take weighed against the information that we can be given by making a move. And even though berg and I disagreed on the numbers... we agree on our stance about a day 1 lynch. I think the real question is what we can learn from day 1. If we lynch an inactive we need to see who kinda just sneaks on the roll because we aren't going to learn much from going after a guy who isn't doing anything, but we can learn who's going to try and sneak along with the group and use that to ride long into this game.
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Post by Brandon Walsh is Insane. on Apr 12, 2012 13:44:55 GMT -5
1+1+2+1... hmm
Can't we all just get along?
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Big Bad Brad
Wade Wilson
Big Bad Brad
Tournament Master
Posts: 27,407
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Post by Big Bad Brad on Apr 12, 2012 13:48:33 GMT -5
This game makes me feel like I'm back in Algebra Class.
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Post by Brandon Walsh is Insane. on Apr 12, 2012 14:05:32 GMT -5
This game makes me feel like I'm back in Algebra Class. Elementary was where it was at, dear Watson. Elementary. I see that there is a small group of us that are in favor of a lynch, and I proposed the inactive lynch just because it's the only real lead we have at this point. Just thinking, if someone had a power role, I doubt that they'd be inactive thus far into the game.
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Jonathan Michaels
Bill S. Preston, Esq.
The Archduke of Levity
Here since TNA was still kinda okay
Posts: 18,183
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Post by Jonathan Michaels on Apr 12, 2012 14:14:21 GMT -5
1+1+2+1... hmm Can't we all just get along? A Clue man, I see.
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RKTaker
Bill S. Preston, Esq.
Posts: 16,307
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Post by RKTaker on Apr 12, 2012 16:17:57 GMT -5
1+1+2+1... hmm Can't we all just get along? no we can't
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2012 16:32:55 GMT -5
I agree, an inactive lynch would do us good. Somebody just needs to organize a list
As for the math....i think its just a red herring
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2012 17:56:38 GMT -5
Let's lynch one of the math nerds!
But for really reals. If someone can make a list of who hasn't posted yet, I'd definitely at least consider an inactive lynch. I'd worry however about accidently killing a power role.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2012 19:07:18 GMT -5
Well, if an inactive with a power roll gets lynched early on, it's really their own fault, now isn't it?
As for whether or not to do it, I'm against lynching solely due to inactivity, especially this early in the game. If we do go for a lynch, there should be more to base it on than just how often they post.
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Hawk Hart
Bill S. Preston, Esq.
Sold his organs.
The Best There Is, the Best There Was, and the Best That There Ever Will Be
Posts: 15,296
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Post by Hawk Hart on Apr 12, 2012 19:31:11 GMT -5
Well, if an inactive with a power roll gets lynched early on, it's really their own fault, now isn't it? As for whether or not to do it, I'm against lynching solely due to inactivity, especially this early in the game. If we do go for a lynch, there should be more to base it on than just how often they post. Yes, it is their fault but we don't want to put ourselves at a disadvantage because those guys are lame. And we can't just lynch the math nerds because despite being less cool in more obvious ways they still serve a purpose. Who else is going to worry about the numbers while the rest of us worry about more superficial things?
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Gus Richlen Was Wrong
Patti Mayonnaise
Metal Maestro: Co-winner of the FAN Idol Throwdown!
Fun while it lasted
Posts: 38,509
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Post by Gus Richlen Was Wrong on Apr 12, 2012 20:21:01 GMT -5
Only reason I've only had one short post is because I really can think of nothing to add.
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Post by Wolf Hurricane on Apr 13, 2012 13:31:46 GMT -5
I'll be the first to make it official.
Vote: No Lynch
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RKTaker
Bill S. Preston, Esq.
Posts: 16,307
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Post by RKTaker on Apr 13, 2012 13:33:38 GMT -5
Vote: No Lynch
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Post by Triple H buried SnS on Apr 13, 2012 13:53:58 GMT -5
I think everyone has posted... which means we don't have a true inactive lynch to go with. So I'm going to look at those that are not posting very much. The less you post, the less we know about you. The less we know about you, the more concerned I am that you are mafia. There's a list of about 8 people that have two or less posts. One of these 8 will be getting my vote on this day. For right now.. Gus... i choose you! vote: gusWhy? Cause both of his posts have added nothing. Why? Cause he has 'nothing to add'... he even said so. That's not helpful. If you have nothing to add, then why post other than to keep 'active'? Last game you were very active on day one as a townie and got discussion going. This time you 'have nothing to add'? Why is that? What's different this time around? Maybe... your allegiances are different?!! dunn dunn dunnnnn!
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