Yami Daimao
Patti Mayonnaise
Really, really wants to zigazig ah!
Posts: 31,784
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Post by Yami Daimao on Mar 18, 2013 16:45:11 GMT -5
Before I get to the current situation, I'd just like to point out my "If the Cult Leader was smart, he'd recruit Spartan's confirmed Townies" theory from a few Days ago actually turned out to be true (Jazzman and Wolf were both "confirmed", as was SNS. Funny how that turned out). It's not much really, but there's nothing wrong with patting yourself on the back every now and then, ha ha.
Anyways, BRB has definitely changed his game from the previous Day. It's pretty odd. Downplaying the last remaining Cultist as a threat raises an eyebrow. If the game comes down to a Townie and that last Cult, guess what, Cult wins. Saying "forget the Cult" much like Wolf (Cult) did, on top of the fact that both were pushing to vote for anyone but Asher (Cult), leads me to believe there's a possible chance that BRB could be that last Cult. It's not highly likely, but it's a possibility, one I will be looking more into. I know Orange wasn't keen on voting for Asher at first either (which is why I suspected him), but I feel like he had a valid reason, and so I think he could be Town. Although, I'm not going to drop my defenses entirely.
As for Peg, once again, I don't like how he continues to go back to the "I voted for Lodi and Mafia Knailsic, so I can't be Mafia" well, even though Zack Morris flipping Mafia threw that defense entirely out the window. Orange roleblocking him even though a Night Kill still occurred doesn't mean anything, as the Godfather can send out different players to perform the action. I don't have too much belief on this never-before-seen role that he's been alluding to, as I think I have a pretty damn good idea what is is, and with possibility of him being converted to Cult, you're not entirely off the hook yet. "But I was right about Zack and Asher". Necessary evil, remember?
Also, one point no one has bothered to bring up is, what are the chances of the Vigilante being converted to Cult? They are Town-aligned, after all.
I have to cut this a little short as I'm needed right now. More later.
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Post by Wolf Hurricane on Mar 18, 2013 16:47:32 GMT -5
Late bah post. Although, it's pretty awesome to have made it as far as I did.
TA TA FOR NOW, KIDDIES! ;D
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Post by BoilerRoomBrawler on Mar 18, 2013 17:03:50 GMT -5
Cult wins if it ties Town; it's not a draw? I figured it would be a draw because Cult cannot Night Kill and their leader is down. Furthermore, now that two Cult are down and there's most likely one left, they still should not be top priority. That's the angle I'm coming from; logic and priorities. Maybe another misconception too, but it's not so big that we should hunt that last cultist down. Not yet anyway.
As for the Vigilante, Wolf flipped as Schitzo; he was our "Vigilante" as far as I can tell. Explains the lack of consistency.
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Post by BoilerRoomBrawler on Mar 18, 2013 17:04:58 GMT -5
EBWOP: I figured it would be a draw at best.
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Post by BoilerRoomBrawler on Mar 18, 2013 19:58:55 GMT -5
Methinks this thread needs to pick up some steam.
Orange, what are your thoughts on Yami's current analysis. Where do you currently stand?
PW, what would you say to teaming up with Orange to lynch Produceman?
Yami, can you pick up the slack if one of the above doesn't feel the Produceman lynch?
Produceman, what would you like on your tombstone?
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pegasuswarrior
El Dandy
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Post by pegasuswarrior on Mar 18, 2013 22:11:17 GMT -5
Cult wins if it ties Town; it's not a draw? I figured it would be a draw... Red flag. Does anyone else see what I see here, or do you think it could just be an honest mistake? Given that I've made it clear I think BRB can't read/chooses not to read, it could just be a mistake. But where I come from in previous Mafia games, this is what we call a major botch. Anyone know where I'm going with this and why this is IMMEDIATE red flag?
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Post by BoilerRoomBrawler on Mar 18, 2013 22:38:49 GMT -5
I also ragged on and on about Mafia Godfather being an investigative role, which I promptly retracted when I looked it up again.
It was my impression that Mafia ends with a tie between Mafia and Town because at that point it is not only a stalemate by Day, thus rendering a Mafia lynch improbable, but Mafia also, as always, get Night Kills. So when there is a draw between Mafia and Town, the game is as good as over.
My misconception with Cult is that, with the leader dead and only one at most left, they can only draw the Town at best, but the important thing is that Cult don't Night Kill and with no Leader, they can't convert. They can't do anything at Night at this point. To suggest that I, a rookie who has made mistakes and misconceptions throughout this game, one very recent as this Day, am desperate Scum, seems desperate.
It was you, PW, who referred to the worst players being the ones who make it to the end along with remaining Scum. So which am I? A horrible player who made it to the final 5, or a brilliant Scum player who made it to the last leg? How can you possibly have it both ways? What does your hypothesis say about you? Are you actually a horrible player with much bravado or are you a brilliant Scum player who's made it to one wrong lynch away from victory?
Where are your fancy, scum hunting tricks now? Why do you have nothing to pin on me besides deflecting encroaching suspicion as the results of your game play speak to different truths than you claim?
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pegasuswarrior
El Dandy
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Post by pegasuswarrior on Mar 18, 2013 22:51:15 GMT -5
I also ragged on and on about Mafia Godfather being an investigative role, which I promptly retracted when I looked it up again. It was my impression that Mafia ends with a tie between Mafia and Town because at that point it is not only a stalemate by Day, thus rendering a Mafia lynch improbable, but Mafia also, as always, get Night Kills. So when there is a draw between Mafia and Town, the game is as good as over. My misconception with Cult is that, with the leader dead and only one at most left, they can only draw the Town at best, but the important thing is that Cult don't Night Kill and with no Leader, they can't convert. They can't do anything at Night at this point. To suggest that I, a rookie who has made mistakes and misconceptions throughout this game, one very recent as this Day, am desperate Scum, seems desperate. It was you, PW, who referred to the worst players being the ones who make it to the end along with remaining Scum. So which am I? A horrible player who made it to the final 5, or a brilliant Scum player who made it to the last leg? How can you possibly have it both ways? What does your hypothesis say about you? Are you actually a horrible player with much bravado or are you a brilliant Scum player who's made it to one wrong lynch away from victory? Where are your fancy, scum hunting tricks now? Why do you have nothing to pin on me besides deflecting encroaching suspicion as the results of your game play speak to different truths than you claim? To answer your question: I'm a horrible player. Probably the worst. Back to the matter at hand, my question is for the rest of the players, mostly Produceman and Yami Redgrave (Orange, it's not because I dont want you to answer--I promise). Can anyone see why that's such a red flag? Even moreso is the defensive reply that follows. I'm completely open to the idea that it could be a mere overlooking of something on his part, but even in his reply, BRB fails to see the point I'm hinting at in the "red flag" comment I first quoted. Going to wait to see what others say about it.
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Post by BoilerRoomBrawler on Mar 18, 2013 23:11:50 GMT -5
Oh I saw your "red flag." Problem is that you still seem to be hunting Cult, just as predicted.
You talk about logic. You complain about people not reading your posts. Well I'm gonna state my motives again.
The sheer fact that this game is still going means that there are no more than 2 Mafia. If there were 3 they outnumber all other parties and thus win.
We can tell that the Cult failed at least one conversion because otherwise they'd control the rest of the game by sheer majority. Furthermore, SNS said that Cult cannot covert Mafia. Therefore, at some point, the Cult tried a conversion and accidentally discovered a Mafia player in the process.
If the general 20-25% ratio is upheld for Mafia games in this game, then there were 5 Mafia to begin with including Lodi, Knailsic, and Zack. That leaves at most 2 Mafia.
So the most likely composition of the remaining playerswould be 2-3 Town, 0-1 Cult, and 1-2 Mafia.
In short, again, we are down to 1 or fewer Cult, but 1 or more Mafia and PW is still hunting Cult.
If we lynch anything but Mafia this Day, they most likely will be half the players and thus win.
And PW is still hunting Cult.
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Post by Orange on Mar 18, 2013 23:13:04 GMT -5
Phew, been busy all night, guys. Going to read through these recent posts and give my thoughts/feedback and whatnot.
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Post by Orange on Mar 19, 2013 0:47:59 GMT -5
Sorry, guys. Computer was giving me problems and it was pissing me off. Like they say, when it rains, it pours. Anyway... Orange, what are your thoughts on Yami's current analysis. Where do you currently stand? Yami does bring up a good point, and it's in regards to your gameplay. Your game has changed drastically very recently - why is that? Of course anybody can change up their game as they please, I'm just curious as to what's up with the sudden changes. Now, as for where I stand on everybody else, here you go. Most confident Mafia Pegasuswarrior Produce Man Most confident Town Yami Redgrave On the Fence Leaning Town BoilerRoomBrawler Cult wins if it ties Town; it's not a draw? I figured it would be a draw... Red flag. Does anyone else see what I see here, or do you think it could just be an honest mistake? Given that I've made it clear I think BRB can't read/chooses not to read, it could just be a mistake. But where I come from in previous Mafia games, this is what we call a major botch. Anyone know where I'm going with this and why this is IMMEDIATE red flag? I think you're reading too much into it. The way that you quoted him makes it seem like weird, but the rest of it explains his confusion. I don't think there's too much there. BRB does bring up a good point, though, pegasus. He really can't be both a horrible player who's gotten lucky and an evil genius mastermind who's been playing us all. Oh I saw your "red flag." Problem is that you still seem to be hunting Cult, just as predicted. You talk about logic. You complain about people not reading your posts. Well I'm gonna state my motives again. The sheer fact that this game is still going means that there are no more than 2 Mafia. If there were 3 they outnumber all other parties and thus win. We can tell that the Cult failed at least one conversion because otherwise they'd control the rest of the game by sheer majority. Furthermore, SNS said that Cult cannot covert Mafia. Therefore, at some point, the Cult tried a conversion and accidentally discovered a Mafia player in the process. If the general 20-25% ratio is upheld for Mafia games in this game, then there were 5 Mafia to begin with including Lodi, Knailsic, and Zack. That leaves at most 2 Mafia. So the most likely composition of the remaining playerswould be 2-3 Town, 0-1 Cult, and 1-2 Mafia. In short, again, we are down to 1 or fewer Cult, but 1 or more Mafia and PW is still hunting Cult. If we lynch anything but Mafia this Day, they most likely will be half the players and thus win. And PW is still hunting Cult.Good points there, BRB. I mean, I'm not an expert at this game, but given that the game is named after the Mafia, I'm going to guess that eliminating them is more important. This next lynch HAS to be Mafia, and I truly feel that that's either Produce Man or pegasuswarrior. I guess the next step is to all agree on which one it's going to be, but we have to get it right.
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Post by BoilerRoomBrawler on Mar 19, 2013 1:40:04 GMT -5
What changed about my play style? I admit I was cocky and came out swinging when this Day phase began, but my target is the same as it's been for nearly half the game: PW.
I now understand that the Cult can win with only one member left if it can just draw the Town. That sucks, hut here is exactly what will happen if we lynch the last Cultist, assuming he even exists: total players becomes 4, two of which are Mafia. Therefore Mafia wins because if the game was played out from there, they'd Night Kill one of the 2 remaining Townies, bringing it down to 3. The next Day phase, they lynch the last Townie. Game over.
No, this is the only way for Town to win now: this day we lynch Mafia. In the Night, the final Mafia member Night Kills a Townie (67% chance) or the final Cultist (33% chance). If the Cultist is killed, the Town must figure out who the final Mafia member is. If a Townie is killed, am I to understand that it is not a draw but a triple threat match of bargaining one other player to lynch the third? Regardless, in that scenario, Town loses.
Town can only worry about lynching the final Cultist after Mafia is out of the way and that means strange bedfellows. In the end, Town cannot lynch the final Cultist. That job is in the Mafia's hands now. Now does everyone understand why I don't care about Cult at this point and don't think anyone Town should either?
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Post by BoilerRoomBrawler on Mar 19, 2013 13:21:51 GMT -5
Food for thought: I, Orange, PW, and Yami have all referred to our roles in the past. Produceman has not nor have we seen results from any role he may have had. That means he's probably Vanilla regardless of alignment.
Now let's consider what might be sensible composition of rolls in a Mafia game this size. Veterans feel free to chime in on this.
Every Mafia member we nailed was more than a Goon. Lodi was a Role Blocker, Knailsic was a Town Judas, and Zack was a Cop. It is my understanding that Godfather is assigned in nearly every game - it sounds assumed. So, should we continue to assume that there is a Godfather? The fact it must be lynched makes it important if there is one or not.
Now let's return to Produceman. If we have a Role Blocker, a Judas (turns into a Vanilla Goon, but still not Vanilla), a Cop, and a Godfather, are we to accept that the Mafia only had one Vanilla Goon?
Let's weed things out further. Orange, if I understand things you had a set number of different powers this game, right? If I am right, can anyone besides me chime in as to whether such a role would be better off Mafia or Town for balance purposes? If Town, he stands a chance of being Cult, but a brother-in-arms nonetheless right now.
Then there's Yami and me. We've been the most enigmatic about our roles. What could we fulfill that isn't already?
Finally, PW. Do we have another investigator role in our midst? PW pointed out the absurdity of two investigator roles in a Mafia team, which doesn't strike me as defensive but honest. It was of course based on my misconception of the Godfather role.
Now let's consider this: what if one or more of us is bluffing?
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MasonK565
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Post by MasonK565 on Mar 19, 2013 13:26:09 GMT -5
There is no such thing as a draw.
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Post by BoilerRoomBrawler on Mar 19, 2013 13:43:38 GMT -5
Like I said, I understand that now. It still doesn't change that Mafia is closer to winning than Cult by a longshot. That's what I'm trying to convince Town of. At this point, when I say "draw" I mean that Mafia/Cult equal Town in number, which effectively means that the game is over as opposed to playing out the predictable from there.
That Cult can still squeak out a win with maybe one member left means that Town absolutely cannot screw up anymore, but that last Cultist, if they exist (could have failed two conversions - unlikely by odds, but still), is an ally with Town if they want to win because the only way that Cult can win now is if there is one Townie and one Cultist left i.e. a "draw" that defaults in Cult's favor. Very unlikely by now, but they still have a chance and it only gets stronger with every lynched Mafia member. Town cannot win unless they lynch a Mafia player this Day and the Mafia kill the last Cultist that Night. From there, Town must figure each other out and lynch the last Mafia. It's the only way left to win.
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No Longer a Produceman
Dennis Stamp
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Evolving into Geckoman
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Post by No Longer a Produceman on Mar 19, 2013 13:51:26 GMT -5
You're all barking up the wrong tree. Brb is your scum. TRUST ME
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Post by BoilerRoomBrawler on Mar 19, 2013 13:52:03 GMT -5
Unvote
Vote: Produceman
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Post by BoilerRoomBrawler on Mar 19, 2013 13:52:51 GMT -5
Oh wow.
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Post by BoilerRoomBrawler on Mar 19, 2013 13:58:33 GMT -5
By this I mean the one minute span between Produceman insisting on me and me voting for him. I composed that post before I saw him post. I have a plan and it involves voting for (and hopefully lynching) Produceman instead of PW. I can nail PW if certain things happen.
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Post by Orange on Mar 19, 2013 14:17:16 GMT -5
Let's weed things out further. Orange, if I understand things you had a set number of different powers this game, right? If I am right, can anyone besides me chime in as to whether such a role would be better off Mafia or Town for balance purposes? If Town, he stands a chance of being Cult, but a brother-in-arms nonetheless right now Two one-night abilities - I used them both long ago. Not a Jack of All Trades, but a similar role. If one investigates, it shouldn't be too hard to figure out the role I was given. I won't say what it is, but it was Town with a couple of sorta-big but not super-powerful roles that I could use. Looking around, the Mafia doesn't have one by this same name, but it looks like they have some that are similar but more powerful. I'm thinking this was created as a watered down role to help the town out a little bit, but not too much.
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