Is the Era of WWE-Sized Promotions Over in the US/Canada?
May 10, 2019 11:52:23 GMT -5
michael likes this
Post by HMARK Center on May 10, 2019 11:52:23 GMT -5
With general interest in WWE getting lower and lower, but with the North American indy scene doing better than it has in a good while, I'm wondering if we're at the point where a promotion the size of WWE just isn't going to be feasible for much longer. A few things put this idea in my head:
-Cord cutting isn't slowing down. While WWE has been losing its audience at a quicker rate than people are giving up cable, it doesn't change the long term trajectory at play. Wrestling has thrived as a TV product since the 1950s, and while it existed before that and while the 80s were a period of transition from local TV to national cable, this still might mark the biggest transition in terms of the industry's medium of choice. A switch to online-only consumption likely leaves more of a niche audience.
-By extension, media consumption is only going to keep fragmenting. Cable with +1,000 channels, Netflix, Hulu, Prime, MLB.tv and other sports streams, YouTube, etc. are all options, and more are on the way, and that's not even acknowledging how Spotify and other music services keep us from all listening to the same tunes. Wrestling "booms" of the modern era involved the industry zeroing in on where the pop culture of their era was at, whether it was reflecting 80s action movies, 90s grunge, etc., but without a wider, more homogenous pop culture, is there still an opportunity to pull that off again? We all watch and listen to what we want; the days of "everyone" seeing The Beatles on Ed Sullivan, "Thriller" on MTV, or Hogan vs. Andre on SNME in '88 are over.
-One more extension of that, in the internet age, people aren't keen on exclusivity. Nintendo and Microsoft are having a laugh at Sony's expense because the Playstation won't allow its user base to interact with the Switch's or X-Box's, while the other two do. People hear that their favorite wrestlers are going to be in one promotion, but they also want assurances that they can still be in another - a recent MLW storyline acknowledged that Pentagon and Fenix were signed to participate at the next AEW show, but made an angle out of them saying that didn't mean they were leaving MLW. I just think people are a bit more willing to give up on things/products/performers they like if they go exclusive rather than follow them, so the benefit to the promotion signing people to exclusive deals isn't as great.
-In the internet age, a wrestler's personal brand matters more than a promoter's work. A big reason why the indies are doing better these days is that the wrestlers themselves are doing a lot of their own promotion. YouTube shows, podcasts, t-shirt sales, Twitter and other social media accounts, all help a wrestler to maintain his/her image and grow their brand, while promoters increasingly take a backseat. Obviously promoters are still needed to allow for there to be a platform to perform on, but AEW seems kind of grounded in a "this was built by wrestlers" mindset, a mindset which has done wonders for the images and bank accounts of wrestlers ranging from Colt Cabana, to the Young Bucks, to Joey Janela, to Joey Ryan, and many more. Austin Aries hasn't been with a notable promotion since he left Impact, but by most accounts he's still making good money and getting consistent bookings, in large part due to this. As great as Steve Austin was, it'd have been tough for him to get the Stone Cold character over in the late 90s without Vince McMahon's promotional machine behind him; today, there are many more methods and outlets available to do just that, at least to a degree.
Put more succinctly, I think we might be headed for an era where it'll be very difficult for any promotion to draw more than, say, 2 million weekly viewers, even if AEW ends up being reasonably successful. More and more I'm starting to think we might be headed to a sort of new era-but-more-wrestler-driven (less mob-like NWA cabal-style) version of the territory days, where talent will go from place to place, cycle in and out of certain promotions, and ply their trade that way, the way a Bruiser Brody did. It's not to say that WWE or AEW won't have any success, but I just keep thinking about the reports that Fox is looking for Smackdown to go on Friday nights and draw 5 million viewers each week, and I can't envision that happening, or what WWE could do to ever make that happen again.
-Cord cutting isn't slowing down. While WWE has been losing its audience at a quicker rate than people are giving up cable, it doesn't change the long term trajectory at play. Wrestling has thrived as a TV product since the 1950s, and while it existed before that and while the 80s were a period of transition from local TV to national cable, this still might mark the biggest transition in terms of the industry's medium of choice. A switch to online-only consumption likely leaves more of a niche audience.
-By extension, media consumption is only going to keep fragmenting. Cable with +1,000 channels, Netflix, Hulu, Prime, MLB.tv and other sports streams, YouTube, etc. are all options, and more are on the way, and that's not even acknowledging how Spotify and other music services keep us from all listening to the same tunes. Wrestling "booms" of the modern era involved the industry zeroing in on where the pop culture of their era was at, whether it was reflecting 80s action movies, 90s grunge, etc., but without a wider, more homogenous pop culture, is there still an opportunity to pull that off again? We all watch and listen to what we want; the days of "everyone" seeing The Beatles on Ed Sullivan, "Thriller" on MTV, or Hogan vs. Andre on SNME in '88 are over.
-One more extension of that, in the internet age, people aren't keen on exclusivity. Nintendo and Microsoft are having a laugh at Sony's expense because the Playstation won't allow its user base to interact with the Switch's or X-Box's, while the other two do. People hear that their favorite wrestlers are going to be in one promotion, but they also want assurances that they can still be in another - a recent MLW storyline acknowledged that Pentagon and Fenix were signed to participate at the next AEW show, but made an angle out of them saying that didn't mean they were leaving MLW. I just think people are a bit more willing to give up on things/products/performers they like if they go exclusive rather than follow them, so the benefit to the promotion signing people to exclusive deals isn't as great.
-In the internet age, a wrestler's personal brand matters more than a promoter's work. A big reason why the indies are doing better these days is that the wrestlers themselves are doing a lot of their own promotion. YouTube shows, podcasts, t-shirt sales, Twitter and other social media accounts, all help a wrestler to maintain his/her image and grow their brand, while promoters increasingly take a backseat. Obviously promoters are still needed to allow for there to be a platform to perform on, but AEW seems kind of grounded in a "this was built by wrestlers" mindset, a mindset which has done wonders for the images and bank accounts of wrestlers ranging from Colt Cabana, to the Young Bucks, to Joey Janela, to Joey Ryan, and many more. Austin Aries hasn't been with a notable promotion since he left Impact, but by most accounts he's still making good money and getting consistent bookings, in large part due to this. As great as Steve Austin was, it'd have been tough for him to get the Stone Cold character over in the late 90s without Vince McMahon's promotional machine behind him; today, there are many more methods and outlets available to do just that, at least to a degree.
Put more succinctly, I think we might be headed for an era where it'll be very difficult for any promotion to draw more than, say, 2 million weekly viewers, even if AEW ends up being reasonably successful. More and more I'm starting to think we might be headed to a sort of new era-but-more-wrestler-driven (less mob-like NWA cabal-style) version of the territory days, where talent will go from place to place, cycle in and out of certain promotions, and ply their trade that way, the way a Bruiser Brody did. It's not to say that WWE or AEW won't have any success, but I just keep thinking about the reports that Fox is looking for Smackdown to go on Friday nights and draw 5 million viewers each week, and I can't envision that happening, or what WWE could do to ever make that happen again.
