Getting the last laugh on the go-home show/losing at the PPV

[Jindrak Mark]

How many times have you heard something like "well wrestler x got the upper hand in the final confrontation so they're probably losing the match now"? Is there really any correlation though or is it just a psychological thing that isn't backed up by facts/numbers?

What are some notable examples of it happening either way for big matches?

For Rock/Hogan at Wrestlemania 18 most people probably remember Hogan pinning Rock on the final Raw and the NWO beating up him and Austin but they had a final promo segment on Smackdown later that week which just ended with a staredown and neither standing tall.

Booker T cleanly pinned HHH in a tag match on the Wrestlemania 19 go-home show but we all know what happened at the PPV.

The Raw before Wrestlemania 30 had Lesnar lay out Undertaker. At the time it was seen as a last ditch attempt to make people believe Brock had a chance in hell of winning as everyone thought it was another guaranteed streak victory for Undertaker but the mad men actually went on and had Brock win.

It's a small sample size but I looked at every 1 on 1 world title match on WWE/AEW PPV this year to see who came out on top on the go-home show segment whether that was Raw/Smackdown/Dynamite/Rampage:

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WWE Day 1 - Becky Lynch v Liv Morgan: Draw (neither appeared on the go-home Raw). Becky wins at the PPV.

WWE Royal Rumble - Roman Reigns v Seth Rollins: Seth (he cut a promo which caused Roman to lose his cool and attack him, Seth dodged the attack, ducked out the ring and walked away laughing). Seth won by DQ at the PPV but got beat down afterwards.
Becky Lynch v Doudrop: Draw (backstage brawl with neither coming out on top). Becky wins at the PPV.

WWE Elimination Chamber - Roman Reigns v Goldberg: Draw (promo segment). Roman wins at the PPV.
Becky Lynch v Lita: Draw (contract signing). Becky wins at the PPV.

AEW Revolution - Britt Baker v Thunder Rosa: Rosa (pins Britt in tag match). Britt wins at the PPV.
Adam Page v Adam Cole: Cole (won 6 man tag then beat down Page after). Page wins at the PPV.

WWE Wrestlemania - Becky Lynch v Bianca Belair: Bianca (cuts Becky's hair and hits her finisher). Bianca wins at the PPV.
Charlotte Flair v Ronda Rousey: Draw (Ronda had a pre-taped segment and Charlotte cut a promo). Charlotte wins at the PPV.
Roman Reigns v Brock Lesnar: Draw (they both cut separate promos). Roman wins at the PPV.

WWE Wrestlemania Backlash - Charlotte Flair v Ronda Rousey: Draw (wild brawl and had to be separated by security). Ronda wins at the PPV.

AEW Double or Nothing - Thunder Rosa v Serena Deeb: Draw (Deeb didn't appear). Rosa wins at the PPV.
Adam Page v CM Punk: Page (knocked Punk down at end of promo). Punk wins at the PPV.

AEW Forbidden Door - Thunder Rosa v Toni Storm: Draw (staredown). Rosa wins at the PPV.
Jon Moxley v Hiroshi Tanahashi: Draw (won a tag match then had a staredown). Mox wins at the PPV.

WWE Money in the Bank - Bianca Belair v Carmella: Bianca (thwarted a sneak attack attempt). Bianca wins at the PPV.
Ronda Rousey v Natalya: Draw (had separate promos). Ronda wins at the PPV.

WWE Summerslam - Bianca Belair v Becky Lynch: Draw (brawl broken up by security). Bianca wins at the PPV.
Liv Morgan v Ronda Rousey: Draw (they won a tag match). Liv wins at the PPV.
Roman Reigns v Brock Lesnar: Draw (they didn't interact in the final week as Roman appeared on Raw and Brock was on Smackdown). Roman wins at the PPV.

So out of 20 PPV world title singles matches this year 14 of them had their go-home segment end with neither participant getting an upper hand on the other, 3 had one person get the upper hand and then also go onto win at the PPV (although one was only via DQ) and there were only 3 cases of the "got the upper hand on the final TV then lost at the PPV" trope happening with all being AEW matches.

[thecrusherwi]

I don't know if the numbers bear it out, but in the Attitude Era, this is something that we noticed without participating in any sort of online discussion. It's funny you mentioned last laugh in the title, because we called it "The Last Laugh Theory" amongst ourselves.

I remember Triple H laying out everyone on the Smackdown before the Armageddon Hell in a Cell Match and he was kayfabe injured in the match and lost.

Jericho tapped out to The Rock and he and Angle lost to Austin and Rock the Smackdown before Jericho won the Vengeance mini tournament for the Undisputed Championship.

I'm sure it's probably pretty even if you looked at the numbers. In the pre-brand split era when my wrestling circle talked about it, I would guess it was common for one party to stand tall on Raw and the other on Smackdown leading into a PPV.