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Post by Deleted on Dec 9, 2009 21:31:20 GMT -5
I don't understand the math. That doesn't add up for me. And two more direct hits on our side. This isn't looking good. Right now, there are four people who are scum (3 mafia and 1 third party, unless I'm mistaken) among us. Moving on, it doesn't seem like jag's death was on purpose, as the miller comes up as Mafia when investigated. More than likely it's a simple case of mistaken identity, but it's still a loss for our side. I'm interested to hear Al Bundy's take on who President Snow is. So far I haven't gotten any reads on the players to give me a primary suspect, but as I said, Day 3 might be when we start to turn things around. wait... when were we told how many mafia members there were? was it explained earlier at one point how many there were or are you just assuming? and why do you assume that many? just seems kinda odd that you'd know the exact number of mafia members (unless we were told and i missed it)
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Post by Deleted on Dec 9, 2009 21:36:26 GMT -5
EBWOP "That'll teach you for making fools out of The Capitol!" Snow, motioned for Clover to follow, as she carried Beetee Volts and his bag away. wait... i believe Ritt was roleblocked. from the fact that his "tools" were taken away from him in the story to the way Ritt seemed confident in his ability to give it away even if he died yet it says right here that the mafia takes his bag with them... meaning that Ritt wasn't able to give them away and they are now in the mafia's hands... so they most likely have the glasses as eluded to earlier along with a few other gadgets that could prove harmful... this is really not looking good.
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Post by Brandon Walsh is Insane. on Dec 9, 2009 21:41:59 GMT -5
Right now, there are four people who are scum (3 mafia and 1 third party, unless I'm mistaken) among us. Moving on, it doesn't seem like jag's death was on purpose, as the miller comes up as Mafia when investigated. More than likely it's a simple case of mistaken identity, but it's still a loss for our side. I'm interested to hear Al Bundy's take on who President Snow is. So far I haven't gotten any reads on the players to give me a primary suspect, but as I said, Day 3 might be when we start to turn things around. wait... when were we told how many mafia members there were? was it explained earlier at one point how many there were or are you just assuming? and why do you assume that many? just seems kinda odd that you'd know the exact number of mafia members (unless we were told and i missed it) Exactly what I was trying to get at. How does he know exactly how many mafia members there are?
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Post by Mr. Emoticon Man, TF Fan on Dec 9, 2009 21:54:46 GMT -5
Just a thought, but he could have reached that conclusion from reading the write-ups and thinking back to how the last few games have been set up. The last two or three games have had 4 Mafia members, and we've seen 4 Mafia-colored names in write-ups so far... so he could just be assuming things. Which, in a way, is reasonable... though I'd advise against it, 'cause you know what they say about when you assume...
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Post by Deleted on Dec 9, 2009 22:04:39 GMT -5
hmm... that is fair... still its much better to explain how you came to a conclusion then just stating it... it still seems a little off since you explained it and not him but yeah that makes sense.
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pegasuswarrior
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Post by pegasuswarrior on Dec 9, 2009 22:12:51 GMT -5
Is it possible that jag knew he was a Miller? In hindsight, his attitude and comments about not wanting to be a distraction could have been him trying to get lynched out of concern for the Cop. I mean, think about it. What if the Cop investigated jag, saw he was Mafia, and then role-claimed to get us to lynch him? That'd have been a HUGE blow. If jag knew he would show Mafia if investigated, he might have been trying to get himself killed to prevent just such a scenario. If I were a Miller that KNEW I was a Miller, the very first thing I'd do is roleclaim with my first post. Your assumption doesn't make sense to me. Makes a buttload more sense to roleclaim like I said than suicide.
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Post by Mr. Emoticon Man, TF Fan on Dec 9, 2009 22:36:35 GMT -5
Is it possible that jag knew he was a Miller? In hindsight, his attitude and comments about not wanting to be a distraction could have been him trying to get lynched out of concern for the Cop. I mean, think about it. What if the Cop investigated jag, saw he was Mafia, and then role-claimed to get us to lynch him? That'd have been a HUGE blow. If jag knew he would show Mafia if investigated, he might have been trying to get himself killed to prevent just such a scenario. If I were a Miller that KNEW I was a Miller, the very first thing I'd do is roleclaim with my first post. Your assumption doesn't make sense to me. Makes a buttload more sense to roleclaim like I said than suicide. There's a chance that role-claiming is forbidden for the role, to prevent things from being that easy. Not saying that this is the case here, but it clicks (in my opinion) with jag's basic attitude.
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Post by ♥ Bunnyslinger ♥ on Dec 9, 2009 22:45:50 GMT -5
If I were a Miller that KNEW I was a Miller, the very first thing I'd do is roleclaim with my first post. Your assumption doesn't make sense to me. Makes a buttload more sense to roleclaim like I said than suicide. There's a chance that role-claiming is forbidden for the role, to prevent things from being that easy. Not saying that this is the case here, but it clicks (in my opinion) with jag's basic attitude. If he knew he was a miller, then why go the 'Sure I can take a lynch if I need to" route? especially on day 1, sure maybe he wanted to save the cop some trouble, but surely he could have added something more to the game than martyring himself the very first chance he gets.
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Post by Mr. Emoticon Man, TF Fan on Dec 9, 2009 22:51:34 GMT -5
Like I've said before, the Town is what matters if you're a Townie. I'm sure I can't be the only person who believes that, so to me it isn't far-fetched to imagine that a player would martyr himself at the first opportunity if he thought it was in the Town's best interest. Not saying that doing so is the best thing to do, but I wouldn't write it off as impossible either.
It's really a moot point, though. Jag's dead, and he can explain his action/inaction after the game if he wants. I just don't like writing him off so easily, is all.
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Post by psychotix5000 on Dec 9, 2009 22:54:33 GMT -5
A few notes and other stuff: *not going to be able to post my notes tonite seeing as i have to work late then get up early for an interview for a potential job promotion. I will post them ASAP. Please bear with me. *as for the # of mafia there were 4 mafia names listed-romulus thread, clover, cato and President Snow. Toss in Enobaria and that is 5 total threats to the town (4 now that Cato is dead) *as far as what happened to Beetee's bag it appears that the mafia have a thief on their side and what they stole is a valuable item. I figure ritt turned in his nite action (which was to give me the item) but that was negated when the mafia stole his item AND then killed him. Ritt roleclaiming as the inventor was a bad idea. *offtopic we have a section for forum games now? Cool. Does that mean we can run more than one mafia game at a time? Just curious. *back to the game, when i present my case on who President Snow is it will be a VERY STRONG case. i hope that it will be more than enough to satisfy the town.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 9, 2009 23:32:12 GMT -5
A few notes and other stuff: *not going to be able to post my notes tonite seeing as i have to work late then get up early for an interview for a potential job promotion. I will post them ASAP. Please bear with me. *as for the # of mafia there were 4 mafia names listed-romulus thread, clover, cato and President Snow. Toss in Enobaria and that is 5 total threats to the town (4 now that Cato is dead) *as far as what happened to Beetee's bag it appears that the mafia have a thief on their side and what they stole is a valuable item. I figure ritt turned in his nite action (which was to give me the item) but that was negated when the mafia stole his item AND then killed him. Ritt roleclaiming as the inventor was a bad idea. *offtopic we have a section for forum games now? Cool. Does that mean we can run more than one mafia game at a time? Just curious. *back to the game, when i present my case on who President Snow is it will be a VERY STRONG case. i hope that it will be more than enough to satisfy the town. cant wait to hear your case... if there's anyone the town can trust its you.
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Post by Allison Reynolds on Dec 9, 2009 23:39:55 GMT -5
*offtopic we have a section for forum games now? Cool. Does that mean we can run more than one mafia game at a time? Just curious. Just to answer this as moderator. Yes it does mean we can, I helped push this game forum so it would be possible to do so. Maybe 2 or at the most 3 at one time, but not any more than that, cause then maybe it'll be a bit overkill?
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Post by Mr. Emoticon Man, TF Fan on Dec 9, 2009 23:59:00 GMT -5
While we wait for Bundy's case, I'd like to hear from everyone else. Depending upon 1 person to guide the course of this game would be foolish in the extreme, so what's everyone else have so far?
Personally, my suspect list is as follows:
1.) Latino -He was very interested in throwing suspicion wherever he could during Day One; to me, this is either the sign of a jittery Townie jumping at shadows, or a Mafia member trying to spark anything that will cause the flames of public opinion to latch onto a Townie. -His defense to the first point was that he was just trying to stir up conversation, yet he threw suspicion on Bundy for actually making such a request in plain terms. People made a big deal out of Jag's contradiction, which I thought was bogus as there was an easy explanation, but this contradiction has no real explanation as far as I can see. -When Jazzman made his fake-claim, it seems like pretty much everyone saw through it... but Latino didn't. He was the only person who seemed to accept it. And as Jazzman was Mafia, it makes perfect sense to me that at least 1 of his scum-buddies would try to put forth some support that what he claimed was true. -His defense for this is that he likes to hang back... yet one Day One, he was throwing around more accusations than anyone else. Once again, his words and his actions just don't seem to click with me, and that's a bad sign. -Finally, his proposal on keeping Jazzman alive. Like I said, I can kinda see where he was going with that, but I mostly see it as a Mafia stalling tactic. -My one concern here is that he voted for D2. I don't like trusting that the Mafia is stupid enough to have more than one member vote for the same person in a situation like that... but the evidence against him is too much for me to let that one worry sway me.
2.) Jonathan -He's forgettable. Tell me 1 thing he's really done or said in this game? Anyone? I sure can't. And like I've said: that's not a good sign. The Mafia loves to be forgettable. The less spot-light they take, the more chance they have of surviving and/or winning. -He even admits to being forgettable as a tactic to escape the Mafia. But, that doesn't help the Town at all... and, unless I missed something, he never responded to that observation. Him hiding in the shadows strikes me as scummy.
3.) Ravishing -He lurks, but he votes. To me, this is someone trying to stay active enough to be memorable (as people tend to remember votes, if nothing else) while not really contributing to anything. Again, stuff like this sets off alarms in my Mafia-hunting brain. -An additional note to this: If Ravishing is Mafia, look towards pegasuswarrior. Pegasuswarrior ignored the Jazzman fake-claim, and this could be understandable; we all make oversights from time to time. Pegasuswarrior also shrugged off the idea of lynching Ravishing, and this had some merit; I could see the logic, and can applaud it at times. Either of these two facts alone wouldn't cause me too much concern, hence me not listing PW as a separate suspect. But, if Ravishing flips Mafia, that'd create ties between PW and 2 Mafia members, and then he might really be worth considering. Again, not saying PW is one of my suspects... but if Ravishing is scum, then PW becomes an instant person of interest in my book.
One final note: Where is Deadpool? I can't remember the last time I saw him post in here. And while I know he has stuff going on to give him a legit excuse, even legit excuses don't help the Town. And having a legit excuse can be a real boon to Mafia, as it makes it seem wrong to suspect them... which increases my concern over this issue.
Anyways...
There's what I have on my head at the moment. Anyone else want to chime in?
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pegasuswarrior
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Post by pegasuswarrior on Dec 10, 2009 0:31:33 GMT -5
In response to the mentioning of Deadpool, I'm halfway inclined to think he's Mafia. That is the ONLY reason I can think of to explain why he hasn't been mod-killed yet. Deadpool hasn't done one thing in this game, yet he's still allowed to live from some unknown reason. If he were town, I could see him getting zapped from the game a long freaking time ago so we can all move on. But there seems to be have been little-to-no pressure in his direction, which seems like an understandable pardon from a game mod if he is trying to lay low on purpose, but continues to meet the night action deadline as Mafia.
However, that being said, I'm still under the impression that we have Mafia member(s) active and it's more productive in my opinion to seek out active Mafia that can be linked to other players in order to either a) clear other players' names as Town or b) to link them to another mafia member.
Losing so many power roles early in the game has seemed to have sunk this ship. Even now on Day Three, the unity of two masons that we didn't have at this point two "game days" ago would have been huge enough.
Also, I think the Inventor was our route to Investigator. I'm not really getting the impression there was solely an Investigator.
We can't afford ANY mistakes, because we have to pretty much go two for one (loss of two town members at night--via serial killer and mafia--versus lynch of one scum per day) in order to have a chance. It seems under that logic that hitting the Serial Killer for the lynch on Day Three is a key for buying us time for survival so we're not losing two people for every ONE lynch. Especially when there are a couple of player lurkers who *could* be town that probably aren't going to help much at all.
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Post by Brandon Walsh is Insane. on Dec 10, 2009 0:45:08 GMT -5
Personally, my suspect list is as follows: 1.) Latino -He was very interested in throwing suspicion wherever he could during Day One; to me, this is either the sign of a jittery Townie jumping at shadows, or a Mafia member trying to spark anything that will cause the flames of public opinion to latch onto a Townie. -His defense to the first point was that he was just trying to stir up conversation, yet he threw suspicion on Bundy for actually making such a request in plain terms. People made a big deal out of Jag's contradiction, which I thought was bogus as there was an easy explanation, but this contradiction has no real explanation as far as I can see. -When Jazzman made his fake-claim, it seems like pretty much everyone saw through it... but Latino didn't. He was the only person who seemed to accept it. And as Jazzman was Mafia, it makes perfect sense to me that at least 1 of his scum-buddies would try to put forth some support that what he claimed was true. -His defense for this is that he likes to hang back... yet one Day One, he was throwing around more accusations than anyone else. Once again, his words and his actions just don't seem to click with me, and that's a bad sign. -Finally, his proposal on keeping Jazzman alive. Like I said, I can kinda see where he was going with that, but I mostly see it as a Mafia stalling tactic. -My one concern here is that he voted for D2. I don't like trusting that the Mafia is stupid enough to have more than one member vote for the same person in a situation like that... but the evidence against him is too much for me to let that one worry sway me. I stated right away AFTER I saw how everyone jumped on my case for joking around and pushing too many possible scum to the forefront, that I was done being so upfront about things. I angered a lot of people and made everyone think I was the scum, when I wasn't. As for the Jazzman thing, I still believe I was taken out of context -- while everyone focused on him and his claims, I took it upon myself to prod those that weren't being investigated to try to get those under the radar involved in the game. Thus far, the ones that have hurt us the most this game are the ones that I haven't really participated. The only person that was participating really well and ended up killed was ritt, and looking back, I agree with one of the above posters -- it was basically because of the role claim. ritt doesn't role claim, ritt doesn't die, I feel. Seems like that is what you just did though... leading us to your suspects... heh. Although, the Deadpool theory does make sense. Too much sense.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 10, 2009 0:48:22 GMT -5
In response to the mentioning of Deadpool, I'm halfway inclined to think he's Mafia. That is the ONLY reason I can think of to explain why he hasn't been mod-killed yet. Deadpool hasn't done one thing in this game, yet he's still allowed to live from some unknown reason. If he were town, I could see him getting zapped from the game a long freaking time ago so we can all move on. But there seems to be have been little-to-no pressure in his direction, which seems like an understandable pardon from a game mod if he is trying to lay low on purpose, but continues to meet the night action deadline as Mafia. However, that being said, I'm still under the impression that we have Mafia member(s) active and it's more productive in my opinion to seek out active Mafia that can be linked to other players in order to either a) clear other players' names as Town or b) to link them to another mafia member. Losing so many power roles early in the game has seemed to have sunk this ship. Even now on Day Three, the unity of two masons that we didn't have at this point two "game days" ago would have been huge enough. Also, I think the Inventor was our route to Investigator. I'm not really getting the impression there was solely an Investigator. We can't afford ANY mistakes, because we have to pretty much go two for one (loss of two town members at night--via serial killer and mafia--versus lynch of one scum per day) in order to have a chance. It seems under that logic that hitting the Serial Killer for the lynch on Day Three is a key for buying us time for survival so we're not losing two people for every ONE lynch. Especially when there are a couple of player lurkers who *could* be town that probably aren't going to help much at all. in all honesty i've made a ton of mistakes in this game so far. one big one was my bad judgment with Ritt. another was thinking Jag was the serial killer. now as was said by Ritt earlier which i agree with... That last part with Enobaria gives me an idea as to who it might be: jagiliki, who hasn't really done much besides "enjoying the show", or one of the other inactive players. Tributes not voting: Jagiliki Latino Meat Jazzman Scruffy Deadpool
Obviously not Jazz. I don't think Latino was just enjoying the show, but its not impossible it was him either. Scruffy seems unlikely to me as well. Deadpool and Jagiliki seem like a toss up on who that could be. i agreed before that Deadpool or Jag seem to be the prime suspects... with me strongly leaning towards Jag (in all honesty he was probably going to get my vote this day) Ritt then went on to suggest that it could also mean Ravishing since he too was basically sitting back and enjoying the show just running in with a vote and leaving again... i agree with this so i believe that the third party is either Ravishing or Deadpool. neither have done anything to help the town and your point about how Deadpool has been able to skirt along without doing anything and without being prodded does strike me as odd so i'm more leaning towards Deadpool being the third party. things just seem to add up. i will wait for Bundy to post his response before i vote but right now my two prime suspects are Ravishing and Deadpool.
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Post by Triple H buried SnS on Dec 10, 2009 10:23:45 GMT -5
I don't know who is the bigger threat. Seriel killer or the top mafia guy... Al seems to have a good idea on who the top mafia guy is. Yet, the seriel killer kills an extra person each night, where the mafia collectively can only kill one.
My gut says that we should try to find the seriel killer, cause it would take longer for them to kill us off. Ravishing and Deadpool appear to be the top candidates for that right now.
Everything is up for discussion... cause the top mafia guy usually have some extra abilities too...
If we have an equal chance of hitting the mafia leader and the seriel killer... who should we go after?
PS... I'd LOVE to hear from Deadpool, Ravishing and Jonothan Michaels... but anyone's comments will be welcomed.
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Oak: Certified Jade Hater
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Post by Oak: Certified Jade Hater on Dec 10, 2009 12:07:41 GMT -5
To me, the Serial Killer is the big threat to us. Right now, we have little-to-no leads on who the SK might be, which leaves us at a very big disadvantage. The Mafia as always is a threat, but at least we have some ideas on who they could be. The SK has remained almost anonymous, which, to me, doesn't bode well for the town.
To answer a question Scruffy had earlier, every Mafia game I've played or seen here has had 4 Mafia members. Plus, as Emoticon said, there have been four players with an orange title. Add the SK, and subtract Jazz as he flipped scum, and we have four threats against us.
Bundy's thoughts on who President Snow would be seems like the biggest break we're going to get in the game. If he's right and we lynch Snow, we're left with three enemies, which gives us more of a favorable chance of winning (not just because we need less townies to survive, but we can also possibly link the Snow character to other Mafia).
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Post by psychotix5000 on Dec 10, 2009 16:25:55 GMT -5
Here's my case for who I believe is President Snow. First off, let's take a look at who voted for D2 players that voted for D2: Latino Meat, Jazzman, Al Bundy, Mr. Emoticon Man, Ritt Now, the roles of those that voted for D2 that we know of D2 voters Latino Meat - ? Jazzman - Mafia/lynched Al Bundy - Rebel Mr. Emoticon Man - ? Ritt - Rebel Inventor/night killed Now, let's take a look at who voted against Jazzman Players that voted for Jazzman: Sweet N' Sour, Michael Hayden, Ritt, D2, Mr.Emoticon Man, Crudulak, Oblivion Sorceress, Pegasus Warrior, Jonathan Michaels, Al Bundy, Gunslinger Now, let's see who voted for both D2 AND Jazzman Ritt - Rebel Al Bundy - Rebel Mr. Emoticon Man - President Snow aka scum Why? Let's go back to the day 1 lynch write up (emphasis mine in bold): * The argument for the lynching of Haymitch Abernathy ""Audience! Would you rather listen to this drunken mad-man, who throws his own idiotic, and unsensible accusations around, or would you rather listen to coherent people, who are sane in the mind and give more accurate sides to the story? I say you do not trust a man, who in a serious situation decides to get drunk."
President Snow, says taking advantage of the situation.
"I'm sure most would agree with me here, that a drunk man is a liability in this game, and must be lynched, before he causes anymore of a distraction!" Snow continues on, as the audience nods in agreement with him.
"Would you want to be on the side of a Rebellion, lead by a crazy Drunk? Or would you rather side with your trusted Government from many of years? The vote is up to you." And with that, Snow sits down, smiling, taking note of the audience's reactions. His plan seems to be working.""President Snow lists several reasons why Haymitch is a liability and should be lynched. Now, compare this with Emoticon's post rationalizing his vote for D2: Hm. Interesting. D2 claims to have kept up with things and so votes for someone, but then jumps away from that vote when called out on it by saying he wasn't aware of how things stood. Yet... if he had been keeping up with things as he claimed, wouldn't he have known that? Then, he throws a vote at jag without really explaining why, nor does he explain why he didn't vote for jag in the first place. To me, this comes across as him just trying to save himself. And while Townie and Mafia both are capable of this, it comes across as suspicious (to me) in light of other evidence. Plus, now that I think of it, D2 meets the active lurker status that so many Mafia members have had in the past. Unless I overlooked something, he hasn't really gotten involved with any of the big discussions that have gone down since the day began. Yes... very interesting indeed. Vote: D-lirious-2Now, let's check the Day 2 write up (once again emphasis in bold is mine): ""I'm sorry Cato, but you are too dangerous. I am doing this in my City's best interest, when I side with the audience's vote to have you lynched."
With that Snow turns his hand into a thumbs down.
Gunshots start ringing from the surrounding Peacekeepers. Falling Cato to the ground.
With a look of betrayal in his eyes, Cato concede's defeat. Mouthing the words "please" as Katniss lets an arrow sail into Cato's neck for a mercy kill."This, to me, suggests that President Snow voted for the lynch of Cato, knowing that it would be in his best interest to cut off any potential ties to Cato so as to not appear scummy. Emoticon votes for Jazzman early on (is the third I believe to post a vote for him). Later, Mr. Emoticon elects to use the write up to make a case for Jagilki being Enobaria, comparing his inactivity in the game to Enobaria's "enjoying the show" line in the write up. Yet, when Scruffy mentions that President Snow possibly voted for Jazzman due to Snow ordering his guards to gun down Cato in the write up and ritt mentions the previous theory that Snow also voted d2, he quickly shoots that down because the only people that voted for both men were ritt (townie) myself (townie) and Mr. Emoticon Man. Emoticon takes the stance that in the last game the mafia godfather was put in write ups even when he didn't do much. If I remember correctly, the Madison Carter character was featured in the Wrestlecrap Mafia write-ups even though the player behind the character didn't do a lot, so it's likely (as ritt has said) that Snow will be in the write-ups regardless. At any rate, I'm still suspicious of Jonathon, Ravishing, Latino, and jagiliki; I really think the first three are Mafia while the fourth is our Serial Killer. After the next night phase, though, we'll hopefully have enough information to possibly narrow in on who is or isn't Mafia. This is NOT the last game. Either use the write ups to back up all theories or don't use them at all. You can't have it both ways, President Snow. Couple all this with the fact that he's pretty much discounted everything I've offered the whole game and I think I've made a very strong case for who the Mafia Godfather is. Therefore: VOTE: MR. EMOTICON MAN AKA PRESIDENT SNOW[/quote]
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Oak: Certified Jade Hater
Bill S. Preston, Esq.
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Post by Oak: Certified Jade Hater on Dec 10, 2009 16:36:29 GMT -5
I think Al just cracked the case.
Emoticon, what do you have to say on this?
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