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Post by Insomniac on Jan 17, 2010 13:24:12 GMT -5
Thanks Dan Duquette ![>:(](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/angry.png) Dan Duquette:Jose Offerman::Theo Epstein:JD Drew Despite the criminal activity. And of course, ya know, the fact that JD Drew has actually played at a high level after the signing.
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BRV
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Post by BRV on Jan 17, 2010 13:41:50 GMT -5
Dan Duquette:Jose Offerman::Theo Epstein:JD Drew Despite the criminal activity. And of course, ya know, the fact that JD Drew has actually played at a high level after the signing. In three seasons with Boston... PLAYER A: 393 games, 295 runs, 482 hits, 84 doubles, 17 triples, 30 HR, 186 RBI, 31 SB, 260 walks, .268 BA, .359 OBP, .385 SLG, .743 OPS, one All-Star appearance PLAYER B: 386 games, 247 runs, 355 hits, 83 doubles, 12 triples, 54 HR, 196 RBI, 10 SB, 240 walks, .276 BA, .390 OBP, .480 SLG, .875 OPS, one All-Star appearance It's a lot closer than you'd think.
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Post by Insomniac on Jan 17, 2010 13:57:59 GMT -5
A 130-point difference in OPS is pretty significance. And considering Offerman was signed for his offensive talent (he was a crap defender), the .255/.341/.360 line he put up in his final three seasons in Boston made him a total waste. Drew, meanwhile, has a +.900 OPS the last two seasons after a poor 2007, and he's established himself as one of the Top-5 defensive RF in the AL.
I honestly don't get how people can crap on Drew for putting up a +.390 OBP and +.500 SLG the last two seasons, all the while playing terrific defense. What more do you want?
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BRV
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Post by BRV on Jan 17, 2010 14:09:53 GMT -5
A 130-point difference in OPS is pretty significance. And considering Offerman was signed for his offensive talent (he was a crap defender), the .255/.341/.360 line he put up in his final three seasons in Boston made him a total waste. Drew, meanwhile, has a +.900 OPS the last two seasons after a poor 2007, and he's established himself as one of the Top-5 defensive RF in the AL. I honestly don't get how people can crap on Drew for putting up a +.390 OBP and +.500 SLG the last two seasons, all the while playing terrific defense. What more do you want? OPS, slugging percentage and defense are all fine statistics. But when you're making $14 million a year, you have to produce more than OPS and defense. Remember, there was a time last season when Drew was batting 7th or lower in the Red Sox lineup. You can't justify spending $70 million on a player who bats 7th in the lineup. Here's the list of hitters who make more annually than Drew: Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Lee, Magglio Ordonez, Torii Hunter, Ichiro, Alfonso Soriano, Todd Helton and Ryan Howard Each of those players produces above, at, or slightly below, their value. The Red Sox front office perpetually preaches value, and signing players to incentive-laden deals and making them play for their money. Yet they continually praise Drew as a success, despite the fact that he's the highest-paid offensive player on the team, and he's not producing at nearly the contract that he signed. If Drew was signed to the contract that Mike Cameron signed, then it'd be a different story. But when you're three years into a five-year, $70 million contract, it's time to produce more than OPS and defense. The Red Sox are just unwilling to admit that they bid against themselves and that Scott Boras absolutely fleeced them in the winter of 2006-07.
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Post by Insomniac on Jan 17, 2010 14:34:31 GMT -5
OPS, slugging percentage and defense are all fine statistics. But when you're making $14 million a year, you have to produce more than OPS and defense. Soriano, Lee, Ordonez... in no way are those guys worth the money they are making. What do you want from him, high RBI totals? I'm betting if he had 30 more RBI to his yearly total, you'd think he was worth his salary and then some. Fact of the matter is that RBIs are a mostly irrelevant statistic that is extremely dependent on the quality of players batting in front of you in the order and their ability to get on base. Mark Teixeira drove in 30 more runs than Kevin Youkilis in 2009. Doesn't mean he had the better offensive season. The most important thing for an offensive player to do, in my opinion, is to go up to the plate and not create an out. JD Drew does that extremely well, nearly 40% of the time. The guy hits for respectable power, gets on base, and has a terrific glove. He's one of the best RF in the American League. The numbers and metrics show it.
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BRV
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Post by BRV on Jan 17, 2010 14:45:26 GMT -5
OPS, slugging percentage and defense are all fine statistics. But when you're making $14 million a year, you have to produce more than OPS and defense. What do you want from him, high RBI totals? I'm betting if he had 30 more RBI to his yearly total, you'd think he was worth his salary and then some. Fact of the matter is that RBIs are a mostly irrelevant statistic that is extremely dependent on the quality of players batting in front of you in the order and their ability to get on base. Mark Teixeira drove in 30 more runs than Kevin Youkilis in 2009. Doesn't mean he had the better offensive season. RBIs may be opportunistic and dependent on the quality of players batting in front of you, but what separates the good players from the elite players is that the elite players cash in when they are given the opportunity. JD Drew was 23-for-108 (.213) with runners in scoring position. For the sake of argument, we'll reference Carlos Lee, who was 53-for-186 (.285) with runners in scoring position.
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Post by Insomniac on Jan 17, 2010 14:56:00 GMT -5
Well in those same situations, he also got on base at a .399 clip. He may not drive them in as much as someone like Lee, but he does a better job of keeping the inning going and giving the next guy in line a shot than Lee does. He's never been an overly aggressive hitter, that's never been his game and never will be. But that doesn't mean he's not a terrific baseball player when he does pretty much everything else so well.
Carlos Lee does one thing better than Drew. Drew does just about everything else better, and gets paid $4-5M less in the process.
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BRV
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Post by BRV on Jan 17, 2010 15:09:14 GMT -5
Well in those same situations, he also got on base at a .399 clip. He may not drive them in as much as someone like Lee, but he does a better job of keeping the inning going and giving the next guy in line a shot than Lee does. He's never been an overly aggressive hitter, that's never been his game and never will be. But that doesn't mean he's not a terrific baseball player when he does pretty much everything else so well. Carlos Lee does one thing better than Drew. Drew does just about everything else better, and gets paid $4-5M less in the process. In the past, Drew's been able to somewhat sidestep the issue, because he's had David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, a healthy Mike Lowell and Kevin Youkilis hitting in front of him, driving the runs in and setting the table for Drew. However, this year, Drew's going to come into the forefront, because the Red Sox don't have those kind of guys who can set the table and take the pressure off of Drew. Guys like Mike Cameron, Adrian Beltre and Marco Scutaro aren't putting any fear into opposing pitchers, and those are going to be the guys responsible for setting the table for Drew. Ideally, Drew would be best suited batting second, because he wouldn't be relied on to knock anybody in, and his high on-base percentage would shine brightest. Drew is best suited as the guy who can set the scene for somebody like Youkilis or Victor Martinez, not as the one expected to bring home Youk or Victor. That being said, I still think he's grossly overpaid and given the Red Sox front office's propensity to pay for "value", they really dodge the issue when it comes to Drew's $70 million contract.
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Post by Insomniac on Jan 17, 2010 15:40:18 GMT -5
In the past, Drew's been able to somewhat sidestep the issue, because he's had David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, a healthy Mike Lowell and Kevin Youkilis hitting in front of him, driving the runs in and setting the table for Drew. However, this year, Drew's going to come into the forefront, because the Red Sox don't have those kind of guys who can set the table and take the pressure off of Drew. That's not Drew's fault, is it? It's not his fault Ortiz is a shell of his former self, it's not his fault they don't have an elite hitter of Manny's caliber. It's not his fault Mike Lowell went from World Series MVP to a guy whose contract they'd rather eat than have taking up a roster space. Drew's been a constant, the same player he was since the 2nd half of 2007. He's never going to be the feared hitter that causes a pitcher to become a nervous spaz. What he is is a reliable hitter who will get on base 2 out of every 5 times, hit for respectable power, and give you GG-caliber defense out in the field. Honestly, this article on FanGraphs says it better than I ever could. Alex Speier on WEEI.com also does a great job of describing the Drew deal.
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BRV
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Post by BRV on Jan 17, 2010 15:54:58 GMT -5
In the past, Drew's been able to somewhat sidestep the issue, because he's had David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, a healthy Mike Lowell and Kevin Youkilis hitting in front of him, driving the runs in and setting the table for Drew. However, this year, Drew's going to come into the forefront, because the Red Sox don't have those kind of guys who can set the table and take the pressure off of Drew. Honestly, this article on FanGraphs says it better than I ever could. I take all of this computer-generated statistical mumbo-jumbo with a grain of salt. According to wOBA, Ryan Ludwick was more valuable in 2009 than Hanley Ramirez. I don't think there is one sane, rational baseball fan in America that would take Ryan Ludwick over Hanley Ramirez. Also, Milton Bradley finished 2009 fourth in wOBA. That about sums it up. Fangraphs says "in a perfect baseball world, wOBA would be one of the primary evaluative barometers." The people who think that wOBA is one of the primary evaluative barometers are the same people who think that there's no rational reason that the Moneyball Oakland A's haven't won a World Series. Computer-generated stats can be fine to back up an argument, but at the end of the day, the talent on the field shows up. Milton Bradley and Ryan Ludwick might be fine players, but they aren't the fourth-best player in baseball, and they certainly aren't better than Hanley Ramirez.
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Post by Insomniac on Jan 17, 2010 16:22:19 GMT -5
Ludwick's 2009 wOBA - .336 Hanley's 2009 wOBA - .410 Bradley's 2009 wOBA - .345 I'll assume you're talking about 2008, then: Ludwick - .406 Hanley - .405 Bradley - .423 Honestly, look at the seasons Ludwick and Bradley had in 2008. They were absolutely monster years: Ludwick - .295/.375/.591 Bradley - .321/.436/.563, making for an OPS a shade under 1.000 Hanley - .301/.400/.540 So yeah, both Ludwick and Bradley had monster seasons, which explains the high wOBA. Again, FanGraphs explains it nicely: Each outcome is valued differently. Getting on-base is valued as being more important than slugging, mostly because getting on-base is the ability to not create an out (which is perhaps the most important thing a hitter can do, IMO). Because OBP is valued more so than SLG, Hanley and Ludwick have a roughly equal wOBA despite the fact that Ludwick's OPS is 26 points higher. And wOBA does not say Player A is more valuable than Player B. That's simply not true. What it attempts to do is assign a value to a player's offensive performance at the plate only. It has nothing to do with baserunning, defense, or the position at which someone plays, all of which need to be taken into account when determining value. Fangraphs does, however, have a formula for determining overall value called WAR (Wins Above Replacement). WAR in 2008Ludwick - 5.7 Bradley - 4.5 Hanley - 7.4 WAR in 2009Ludwick - 1.8 Bradley - 1.0 Hanley - 7.3 Fangraphs clearly states that Hanley Ramirez was far more valuable than either Ryan Ludwick or Milton Bradley.
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Post by RI Richmark on Jan 17, 2010 16:34:42 GMT -5
In the past, Drew's been able to somewhat sidestep the issue, because he's had David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, a healthy Mike Lowell and Kevin Youkilis hitting in front of him, driving the runs in and setting the table for Drew. However, this year, Drew's going to come into the forefront, because the Red Sox don't have those kind of guys who can set the table and take the pressure off of Drew. That's not Drew's fault, is it? It's not his fault Ortiz is a shell of his former self, it's not his fault they don't have an elite hitter of Manny's caliber. It's not his fault Mike Lowell went from World Series MVP to a guy whose contract they'd rather eat than have taking up a roster space. Drew's been a constant, the same player he was since the 2nd half of 2007. He's never going to be the feared hitter that causes a pitcher to become a nervous spaz. What he is is a reliable hitter who will get on base 2 out of every 5 times, hit for respectable power, and give you GG-caliber defense out in the field. Honestly, this article on FanGraphs says it better than I ever could. Alex Speier on WEEI.com also does a great job of describing the Drew deal. Guys, guys. Why all this commotion over JD Drew? ;D
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Post by Ben Wyatt on Jan 17, 2010 18:10:03 GMT -5
I honestly don't get how people can crap on Drew for putting up a +.390 OBP and +.500 SLG the last two seasons, all the while playing terrific defense. What more do you want? Im in the same camp you are on this. Is Drew overpaid to some degree? Yes Is Drew even close to being the "bust" that some jackasses who call WEEI claim him to be? (To be clear BRV, Im NOT lumping you into that category) No. No he isnt. He's been pretty consistant and had some HUGE hits for the Sox..... the latter being something which people seem to convienently forget
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Post by i.Sarita.com on Jan 17, 2010 18:22:54 GMT -5
I think Drew being a jackass early in his career still rubs people the wrong way and it gets held against him even to this day, and even by his own teams fans.
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Post by andrew8798 on Jan 19, 2010 2:29:57 GMT -5
ESPN.com's Keith Law reports that Felix Hernandez and the Mariners have agreed to a multi-year contract.
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Post by i.Sarita.com on Jan 19, 2010 5:19:16 GMT -5
ESPN.com's Keith Law reports that Felix Hernandez and the Mariners have agreed to a multi-year contract. Better watch Angels, the M's are on the trail! And better watch out M's...you've got Milton Bradley in your clubhouse. ![:P](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/tongue.png)
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Post by Brandon Walsh is Insane. on Jan 19, 2010 10:41:55 GMT -5
ESPN.com's Keith Law reports that Felix Hernandez and the Mariners have agreed to a multi-year contract. Better watch Angels, the M's are on the trail! And better watch out M's...you've got Milton Bradley in your clubhouse. ![:P](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/tongue.png) That second line negates the first. ![:)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/smiley.png)
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Post by The Line on Jan 19, 2010 11:43:01 GMT -5
5 years/$78 Million is the deal. Awesome
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Post by Steveweiser on Jan 19, 2010 15:46:16 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Jan 19, 2010 16:57:16 GMT -5
Reports are coming in that the Jays signed Carlos Delgado
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