I remember back in the early 90s when Andre Dawson's career was winding down. He was considered, at the time, a no-brainer Hall of Famer. Doesn't anyone recall the controversy when he said that if anyone signed him as a free agent, he'd wear their cap to the Hall? Only 7 players have won more Gold Gloves as outfielders than Dawson's 8 (Clemente, Mays, Griffey, A. Jones, Kaline, T. Hunter, Ichiro). His numbers for his career are pretty sick given the era in which he played. I'm pretty sure that only he, Mays and Bonds recorded 400+ homers and 300+ steals.
So what happened? He retired after the 1996 season and was first eligible for consideration in 2002. On that ballot, Ozzie Smith alone was selected with over 90% of the vote, while Dawson joined Gary Carter, Jim Rice, revolutionary closers Bruce Sutter and Goose Gossage, and all-but-certain 2011 inductee Bert Blyleven as those who would have to wait. Also on the ballot were 280-plus-game winners Jim Kaat and Tommy John, who both failed to be elected before their 15-year eligibility passed. Dawson was not alone, then, in being a victim of circumstance.
The following year, Ryne Sandberg failed to garner even 50% of the vote, despite being (at the time) considered the best overall second baseman in the game's history (10 All Star [starter 84, 86-93], 9 Gold Gloves, 7 Silver Sluggers, an MVP award, .385/.457/.641 in limited playoff time, then-tops among 2B in homers). People looked at Jeff Kent's power and the kind of "meh" numbers a guy like Ray Durham put up in the steroid era and forgot that Sandberg's numbers - like Dawson's or Carter's or Rice's or Blyleven's - meant something wholly different in the 1980s and pre-strike 1990s.
These players were also hampered by the rise of ubiquitous cable TV and internet. It was easy to see out-of-town players more than a couple times per year when they played the home team. Thus, the mystique of players in the other league or division diminished. Baseball cards and newspaper box scores, long the only access to many players, were irrelevant. But with those changes, history was redefined. The definition of "the present" became restricted to the here and now, rather than the recent past. Thus, in 2003, the stats of 1998 and 1988 had become equally ancient. I believe that is even more the case now, when it seems that everyone has completely forgotten about the absolute greatness of Barry Larkin and Roberto Alomar. Dustin Pedroia's MVP award was "unprecedented," despite Larkin winning the 1995 NL MVP Award with a .319/.394/.492 triple slash and 15 homers/51 steals. But 13 years might as well be a century.
So we are in the midst of an era where memories are short-term and the historically significant statistics and benchmarks (for pitchers: W, ERA, K, CG, CYA; for others: HR, RBI, SB, GG, MVP) no longer bear the same meaning, let alone significance, as they did for so long previously. If the historical benchmarks for
starting pitchers hold into the future, then John Smoltz, Andy Pettite and Pedro Martinez are perhaps the only and last active Hall-of-Fame candidates who play the position. Meanwhile, the elections of Fingers, Sutter, Eckersley and Gossage and the exclusion of Lee Smith have done little to establish any baseline criteria for elite closers seeking entry (Trevor Hoffman, Mariano Rivera, John Franco, Billy Wagner, Robb Nen, Joe Nathan, and K-Rod will need to be sorted out somehow across eras and numbers).
Players of the other 8 positions and DH also will need to see their statistical accomplishments reevaluated. But how? Obviously, 500 home runs is no longer a shoo-in statistic. Otherwise, Fred McGriff's 490 would have garnered him more votes this year. In fact, 24 of the 45 players in the game's history with over 400 home runs are in Cooperstown. Of the other 21, 9 are currently active (K Griffey, A Rodriguez, J Thome, M Ramirez, G Sheffield, C Delgado, C Jones, Ja Giambi, V Guerrero), 7 have not yet been eligible (B Bonds, S Sosa, R Palmeiro, F Thomas, J Bagwell, J Gonzalez, M Piazza), and 2 are currently on the ballot (M McGwire, F McGriff). The only members of the 400 HR Club who have been denied by the BBWAA are Jose Canseco, Dave Kingman, and Darrell Evans.
In Jose Canseco's only year on the ballot, 2007, he actually received fewer votes than
Bret Saberhagen (7-6). Kingman's .236/.302/.478 career triple slash reminds us that he was a true one-trick pony, a power hitter who gave little else to his team. This was reflected in the less-than-1% of the vote he received in 1992, his first year of eligibility.
Dwight Evans, though, is a more interesting and valuable case. Evans barely made the cut with 28 votes in 1997, his first year of eligibility. In January of 1998, he jumped all the way to 10.4% and 49 votes. Dave Parker likewise jumped from 17.5% to 24.5% and Steve Garvey from 35% to 41%. But then Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire chased Roger Maris through the summer, and the steroid era was in full swing. What happened in January of 1999 to Evans, Parker and Garvey? Garvey dropped to 30%, Parker to 16%, and Evans to 3.6% and off the ballot. By 2004, Garvey was down to 20% and Parker to 10%. The steroid era, aided by the SportsCenterization of highlights, scores and analysis, completely devalued - quite literally in the span of a few months - everything that had come before it.