|
Post by BoilerRoomBrawler on Mar 13, 2013 22:45:51 GMT -5
Good luck Mason.
|
|
pegasuswarrior
El Dandy
Three Time FAN Idol Champion
@PulpPictionary
Posts: 8,748
|
Post by pegasuswarrior on Mar 13, 2013 23:00:41 GMT -5
Bottom line:
Here's the breakdown. It actually doesn't have to wait until the lynch.
We need Orange (Town) aboard for the Asher lynch. We need Yami (Town) on the revote.
BoilerRoomBrawler gets proven wrong (no big deal--he's on my team and we all need him for the long haul). And Wolf's quiet desperation exposes him as Godfather for the next Day Phase vote after Asher flips Goon.
So yeah, that 70% leaning I alluded to out of the "3 main suspects." It's Wolf Hurricane. (Keep your friends close, but your enemies closer. Go back and look how much I've drooled over Wolf Hurricane and Zack Morris both. How have I stayed alive this long in the game? Remember, only people who are way off in left field get to live this long. Gotta keep those two safe.) Now's as good a time as any. I need to fight for this game. We've come too far for me just to lie down and take it.
If Asher flips Cult Follower, that's another issue altogether and could negate Wolf as Godfather. Right now, it makes as much sense as any to me that he'd be Godfather.
I'm strongly leaning on Orange and Yami Redgrave to consider this as fellow Townspeople. I don't want to come all this way to play this cursed roll the way I have only to ruffle feathers and lose. It's going to be the biggest letdown when you read what role I was playing after a loss. I am appealing to you two to make the right call. I feel like Wolf Hurricane, as Godfather, is just waiting to pounce as soon as the numbers work in his favor. Right now though, I just want to concentrate on seeing if Asher is the Goon. I. Know. He. Is. Scum. Read back through the "bait and switch" posts and how I needed to live through the nights of ritt and Hayden's lynches. It's a good reason I've kept Zack and Wolf so close. Yami (in game) hates me. He would've wasted me. Orange (in game) hates me. He would've wasted me. BoilerRoomBrawler is ready to lynch me so he would've wasted me. As a Godfather or Mafia member, what more could I want? Trust me on this Asher move. I know you still have time, but this isn't posturing. All but giving you a role reveal, Asher is on the same level of a sure thing as Zack Morris. I've stated before my rationale and gamesmanship with throwing ritt to the wolves and then Hayden (Vigilante bailed me out there).
|
|
|
Post by Orange on Mar 13, 2013 23:16:33 GMT -5
Bottom line: Here's the breakdown. It actually doesn't have to wait until the lynch. We need Orange (Town) aboard for the Asher lynch. We need Yami (Town) on the revote. BoilerRoomBrawler gets proven wrong (no big deal--he's on my team and we all need him for the long haul). And Wolf's quiet desperation exposes him as Godfather for the next Day Phase vote after Asher flips Goon. So yeah, that 70% leaning I alluded to out of the "3 main suspects." It's Wolf Hurricane. (Keep your friends close, but your enemies closer. Go back and look how much I've drooled over Wolf Hurricane and Zack Morris both. How have I stayed alive this long in the game? Remember, only people who are way off in left field get to live this long. Gotta keep those two safe.) Now's as good a time as any. I need to fight for this game. We've come too far for me just to lie down and take it. If Asher flips Cult Follower, that's another issue altogether and could negate Wolf as Godfather. Right now, it makes as much sense as any to me that he'd be Godfather. I'm strongly leaning on Orange and Yami Redgrave to consider this as fellow Townspeople. I don't want to come all this way to play this cursed roll the way I have only to ruffle feathers and lose. It's going to be the biggest letdown when you read what role I was playing after a loss. I am appealing to you two to make the right call. I feel like Wolf Hurricane, as Godfather, is just waiting to pounce as soon as the numbers work in his favor. Right now though, I just want to concentrate on seeing if Asher is the Goon. I. Know. He. Is. Scum. Read back through the "bait and switch" posts and how I needed to live through the nights of ritt and Hayden's lynches. It's a good reason I've kept Zack and Wolf so close. Yami (in game) hates me. He would've wasted me. Orange (in game) hates me. He would've wasted me. BoilerRoomBrawler is ready to lynch me so he would've wasted me. As a Godfather or Mafia member, what more could I want? Trust me on this Asher move. I know you still have time, but this isn't posturing. All but giving you a role reveal, Asher is on the same level of a sure thing as Zack Morris. I've stated before my rationale and gamesmanship with throwing ritt to the wolves and then Hayden (Vigilante bailed me out there). ...Alright. Vote: The Shareholder They Call Asher
|
|
|
Post by Wolf Hurricane on Mar 13, 2013 23:28:16 GMT -5
*sigh*
Killing off anyone who isn't mafia would be disastrous for us, and there isn't a single thing that tells me he's mafia. We lynch him, and if there's three mafia left, game over. Even if there's two, we reduce our chances even further.
Yami, mark my words. A vote for Asher is a vote to give mafia the majority.
|
|
Yami Daimao
Patti Mayonnaise
Really, really wants to zigazig ah!
Posts: 31,784
|
Post by Yami Daimao on Mar 13, 2013 23:32:36 GMT -5
UnvoteNow that I know I'll be able to stick around until the deadline (no emergency trip to Philly, at least not yet I think), I don't have to throw in an early vote. That, and I'm curious what BRB's conclusion is. I want to see if I'm not, in fact, the only one who sees what I've seen in Pegasus since Day 3. Hell, maybe he'll even shed some light on things I didn't catch the first time. I've looked over your report and it consists of things I've already known, but again, maybe I'm not seeing everything. First, I posted what I thought to be either important or peculiar posts by confirmed Mafia. Second, I posted certain sequences with nothing individually important, but the sequence is what may be important. Third, I paid primary attention to my "assignment" - PW - and secondary attention to confirmed Mafia. What have you "seen" since Day 3? I'm sure you could pick it out of my research. There's a reason I didn't insert my opinions into it. It's to be used for others too. Just as an example, and of course people can say, "I already knew that," but we'll never know unless they actually did post it earlier, let's consider Knailsic. His role depended on being lynched. Look at the very first thing I cite. Straight from his keyboard. The Mafia get to communicate (PM?). They can form a game plan from the beginning. As far asI'm concerned, Knailsic should be considered as Mafia for the whole game because his role essentially stalled the Town and served as a free sacrifice for Mafia; a true red herring. We lynched a Town Judas and thought we made progress, but I now think we didn't. Mafia benefits from that role even if by only a day. Consider that angle and imagine how it radiates to the actions of fellow Mafia. Now, what have you seen in PW? I hope I've laid out more than enough evidence for you to pick from. I thought my past posts concerning Pegasus would be more than clear on what I see, but now I think I'm starting to believe Peg might be right about people not reading some-to-most of the posts here that do not concern them (this is not the first time it's happened, it's one of many, so don't think I'm personally accusing you, BoilerRoomBrawler). Especially when I caught Peg in the act of "rewriting" (it's a different color for a reason, click it!) history not too long ago (which absolutely no one bothered to bring up, whether to support or debunk it, not even Peg himself, who I know for a FACT read it). Yet, you just finished going through every thread of the entire game, and somehow never noticed them. But if you want me to summarize what I think I see in Peg, I will: I believe there's always another side to everything, a side that could be as equally as possible as the other. For as much work as he's putting into appearing as Town as possible (and it's A LOT of work), I believe there's also a chance he could be scum playing the best game he's played yet, albeit, not flawlessly. Any kind of voting pattern he could use as a defense should not only be moot by the linked post I have above, but by Zack Morris voting for Mafia, only to flip Mafia himself. He claims ritt was a "necessary evil", but IF Peg were Mafia, who's to say outing Zack Morris as scum wasn't a "necessary evil" too? A very similar thing happened in DBZA mafia, where Double H brilliantly had everyone fooled into thinking he was Town (he was Mafia) since the beginning of the game, a strategy that won him the game. Everyone but one person thought he could be scum, that person being Jono. No one believed him, and we lost because of that (although Jono's actions didn't really help him there, but that's besides the point and is a whole other story). I do not want to see something like that happen again. The same feeling I have with Peg is the same I had with SNS in the first half of this game, and yet, I was foolish into thinking I could be wrong about him when he was "confirmed" town by Spartan. It's now that I believe no one is proven innocent until lynched or killed (or via role, but with a Cult in the game, even that goes out the window), especially in a game with a Cult. This is why I've been keeping an eye on him since Day 3. The rest of Town may see that as me "hounding" him, I see it as me not letting potential scum slip through the cracks for a third (or second, as far as this game) time. I take all of this into consideration, and it's what I trust most. Is there a chance he could be Town? Sure. But I'll be damned if no one else could see the evidence that could point to the opposite direction. It's why I'm saying I'm curious to see what your result on Pegasus is that you've been alluding to. I want to see if maybe, just maybe, I haven't been hallucinating everything. (I say that last sentence jokingly. I know haven't been hallucinating anything.)
|
|
|
Post by BoilerRoomBrawler on Mar 13, 2013 23:42:50 GMT -5
I won't beg. I won't appeal to "best intentions." I won't declare myself an expert before my first game concludes. I won't say that I am 100% convinced of my own accusations.
But I think, if nothing else, we could use less confusion, division, and uncertainty. Maybe PW's abrasive style has sacrificed a few pawns to nab a rook or bishop here and there. But now we're nervous about how many were lynched because of his direction. He said he worked us. No more lies, no more confusion, no more PW.
If Cult reverted and we're 5 Town to 2 Mafia, we have a chance with him gone and whoever is Night Killed. If we get lucky, the Vig will nail a Mafia in the process.
If Cult remains; If there is 2 Mafia, 4 Cult- hey WAIT A MINUTE!
Give me a sec, I think I just realized something...
|
|
|
Post by BoilerRoomBrawler on Mar 13, 2013 23:48:01 GMT -5
I stayed that post before Yami's last. Gimme a few to respond.
|
|
pegasuswarrior
El Dandy
Three Time FAN Idol Champion
@PulpPictionary
Posts: 8,748
|
Post by pegasuswarrior on Mar 13, 2013 23:59:59 GMT -5
But I think, if nothing else, we could use less confusion, division, and uncertainty. No more lies, no more confusion, no more PW. And with me gone, the chance to prove I'm on your side goes with it. With all due respect, "confusion, division, and uncertainty" fits the bill with Asher as well, just on the extreme opposite end. He's not going to be active: uncertainty. He's chasing Produceman: "division." And he hasn't weighed in this day any but once. What makes you think he's going to help nab a Godfather? I'm not trying to be insensitive to him, but gee whiz, you realize your relying upon an inactive to chase a Godfather in the 3 Town vs 2 Mafia scenario Wolf Hurricane painted so clearly? It simply is not going to happen. I'm here for the Town to answer questions and take on these accusations head on. I'm not in and out for days at a time. Wolf's 3 to 2 scenario of Town versus Mafia is the best we have if Town is lynched. (And at this stage, it's going to only be Asher or me.) But even at that, I don't like the way that quiet desperation is coming across from Wolf. I don't like the sound of "chance it, get him out of here; at least we'll have 3 to 2 in a best case scenario." I don't want a 3 to 2 scenario. 4 to 1 sounds much better to me. Wolf's last post is even more convincing to me that this is Goon territory we're wandering into with Asher. No one was particularly aiding Hayden the same way Wolf Hurricane is putting his neck out there for Asher. Does no one find it odd that Wolf is suddenly putting his neck on the line? Where has that been? I just think the "we can still have numbers" line is bogus. I don't feel that way at all. My desperation is getting a confirmed scum lynched. Wolf's is "oh no, we can't lynch him." He's scum and even if he's Cult, he's got to survive to win; you all, he's still not Town. (I'm 95 percent more and more that he's Goon the way the last two pages of posts have fallen.) I'm not caring about anyone's "vibe" (see Wolf Hurricane). Roles are provided to us for a reason above just playing a guessing game. It stopped being a guessing game against Zack Morris on the night after ritt's lynch. The night after Hayden's lynch, my hunch on Asher was no longer a hunch or guess, it was confirmed. I'm hanging in there and fighting for this. I want a win so that the routine of playing the bad guy wasn't for naught. I made enemies in the name of a character role that I played out in the spirit of Mafia. I won't roleclaim, but going back to one thing that was mentioned earlier, you won't find this role on a Mafia wiki that I'm aware of. (Trust me, I did it when it was first assigned me, and I've had to exchange as many PMs as Mafia--probably--to understand what the extent and power the role can have. There was no outside information I could gather on it. I'm sure it's not a "first," but in terms of our FAN Forums Mafia games, it certainly is the first time this role has been out there as far as I can discern.)
|
|
|
Post by BoilerRoomBrawler on Mar 14, 2013 0:08:28 GMT -5
EBWOP: started
Anyways, Yami - bear in mind I skimmed over all remaining players, which of course includes you. That's why I missed that post; I wasn't studying your side of this game at all and even said I wouldn't before embarking on my investigation.
But yes, I have arrived to the same rough conclusions as you. PW knows and is right that this game not only involves logic and psychology, but it is also a numbers game. While hardly conclusive, his doom and gloom speeches are easily inverted pep talks for Mafia. The fact that Zack Morris voted Mafia shows that misdirection is part of their game. If PW is Mafia, he's led many of us by the nose to lynch multiple Townies before Zack Morris was unexpectedly killed.
If he is Mafia, he plays damage control and takes initiative of the bunch. I dint think that necessarily makes him Godfathet for that either - if anything it distracts from the Godfather.
Regardless, he claims to know a lot, and comes up wrong a lot. Is he wrong because he's arrogant or is he wrong on purpose? Again, Zack Morris was a Cop. I called PW on Hayden, whohe was certain about, and he flipped Town. SNS is killed at Night, but what's PW do? He votes for Zack Morris as his "next trick." Next trick? The last trick was lynching a Townie!
You're right that he has a habit of revisionism, misdirection, and thus mass nervousness. He regularly appeals to Town fears of loss to get his way. He must be lynched. Help me, Yami. Help me Wolf. Help me, um... Asher? Help me lynch PW.
So much for not begging...
|
|
pegasuswarrior
El Dandy
Three Time FAN Idol Champion
@PulpPictionary
Posts: 8,748
|
Post by pegasuswarrior on Mar 14, 2013 0:12:51 GMT -5
In short, to summarize, I'm fighting for ya, Yami Redgrave. I really am. I know Wolf won't budge because of the Godfather-itis. BoilerRoomBrawler has convinced himself. You are the sway vote either way. And if you did manage to swing to PegasusWarrior, Orange is then the sway vote against me.
With that in mind, I've got to urge Orange to read what I've just posted and stick with me on this one. If you think it's bull crap altogether, ok. But your vote toward Asher at least shows enough confidence that you're willing to believe in the Town plea. I'll promise you straight up--strong words here--I will promise you full on that I got a scum confirmation on Asher last night phase. If you're seeing this on the sidelines, your weighing in on the Asher behalf is just as important as BoilerRoomBrawler sacrificing all to side with Wolf, the likely Godfather. We need Yami Redgrave and then we can solidify everything with BoilerRoomBrawler in seeing I'm Town. It'd be a definitive 4 to 1 advantage. OR, if Wolf is hording Mafia over there, it at least is a 3 to 2 fighting chance after Asher is lynched (if 3 mafia are somehow running around currently, which I don't believe).
|
|
|
Post by BoilerRoomBrawler on Mar 14, 2013 0:13:47 GMT -5
I'd like to also state, for the record, that I'm still not getting personal here; just playing. I've seen a series of blow ups in this game so I want everyone to know I'm not like that. Anyone who's seen me weigh in on disputes in FAWA knows I play a reasonable neutral party who rarely if every gets worked up.
|
|
pegasuswarrior
El Dandy
Three Time FAN Idol Champion
@PulpPictionary
Posts: 8,748
|
Post by pegasuswarrior on Mar 14, 2013 0:28:15 GMT -5
One thing I'm screaming is "Hello, role proof over here. Role proof I didn't have until ritt died and then Hayden died." BoilerRoomBrawler is just playing straight up "I got this; I'm the man." He says he has a role, but I promise you, it doesn't lead to direct information that reveal "so-and-so is scum." I do have that. And it took me nearly an entire game to finally get a role.
Orange, if nothing else, remember when you roleblocked me? What could you have roleblocked me from doing? If I were Goon, there would've been no Mafia nightkill. If I were Godfather, same effect. (How do I know that about the Godfather? Because I had to ask the game mod the same question the night I tried to do something, the same night Orange roleblocked me.) Have you figured out how you roleblocked me from "something" that now I've delayed after a certain person's death and I can suddenly "confirm" scum during Night Phases. Orange (or Yami), do you want to take a stab at how all that has gone down and how it confirms what I'm saying is valid?
|
|
|
Post by BoilerRoomBrawler on Mar 14, 2013 0:28:19 GMT -5
Oh, anyway, that sudden epiphany I had.
There can be no more than 3 Cult now if they still exist. Why? Simple: numbers. If Cult were 4 out of us 7, they could quickly trample the other three players in short order. Day 8, they lynch someone, one might get killed at night. Day 9, they lynch someone because they still have the majority, Mafia kills one of them. Day 10, and the Cult, still with the Majority, lynches the last Mafia.
That they haven't done this is proof that they either reverted or they are 3 or fewer. If they had the numbers, this game would already have entered the death spiral.
So where's the fourth theoretical Cultist? Simple: a conversion failed. And what kinds of conversions fail? SNS told us: Cult cannot convert Mafia. Look it up. I doubt he was lying there, but he claimed to base it off of True Blood Mafia. Seeing as he flipped Cult Leader, I think he chuckled to himself with that post.
Now the big question remains: is the Cult still here? If they remain, how many and who did SNS fail to convert?
|
|
pegasuswarrior
El Dandy
Three Time FAN Idol Champion
@PulpPictionary
Posts: 8,748
|
Post by pegasuswarrior on Mar 14, 2013 0:35:53 GMT -5
I'd like to also state, for the record, that I'm still not getting personal here; just playing. No worries about that here with me. I know you've already stated you're not taking anything personally either. We'll have no disputes after this game. I want to make sure you share a laugh with me though when the end-game role reveal (my actual Title) comes about. My goal is to win. But my goal also is in the end-game for people to say "oh man, that's makes so much sense now."
|
|
|
Post by Orange on Mar 14, 2013 11:20:25 GMT -5
So, this means nothing in the long run, but I just had to share this.
So, I had a dream last night, in which I woke up, logged into this site and found out that Asher had been lynched. He, in fact, did flip Mafia, and the way the write-up was written, it sounded HUGE.
Again, don't vote based on that or anything, but given that it's relevant to the game, I just had to share.
|
|
|
Post by BoilerRoomBrawler on Mar 14, 2013 12:28:16 GMT -5
Invading your dreams too, eh?
So who has yet to vote? I believe it's down to Yami and Wolf. This game seems to be coming down to the wire, so I wonder what ways they will go.
And Asher has yet to weigh in on his imminent lynching...
|
|
|
Post by BoilerRoomBrawler on Mar 14, 2013 12:56:55 GMT -5
So when a Cop or other investigative role like Jack of All Trades investigates someone, are they told only "Scum" or are they told what kind of Scum? That is, if, say, Orange picked Stinger4christ would he be told Scum or Serial Killer?
|
|
pegasuswarrior
El Dandy
Three Time FAN Idol Champion
@PulpPictionary
Posts: 8,748
|
Post by pegasuswarrior on Mar 14, 2013 13:17:00 GMT -5
Scum only. No detail. Trust me. ![:D](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/grin.png)
|
|
Yami Daimao
Patti Mayonnaise
Really, really wants to zigazig ah!
Posts: 31,784
|
Post by Yami Daimao on Mar 14, 2013 13:50:46 GMT -5
Hm, looks like it's down to me, huh? I've got Pegasus telling me to vote for Asher because he's scum, Wolf telling me NOT to vote for Asher because we should be focusing on Mafia, and BRB telling me help to him lynch Pegasus. Interestingly enough, I've been suspicious of both Pegasus and Asher for a while (and Produceman), while I think Wolf, who I'm currently leaning Town, has a small chance of being the Godfather since the last Day phase.
I've got no problem lynching either Asher or Pegasus this Day, both feel like scum to me, and it's only a matter of who I think could be playing me. We still have until tomorrow night until the deadline, so if you guys don't mind, I'm going to have to think this one through. I promise I won't drag this out for long.
In the meantime, discuss. Discussion is good for us heading into the next Day, and it's so far shun some light on certain people that helps with my investigations, especially over the last two days (not phases, actual days).
|
|
|
Post by BoilerRoomBrawler on Mar 14, 2013 14:13:37 GMT -5
Well, there's an idea: lynch Produceman. You're suspicious, I'm suspicious, Asher already voted for him. If we teamed up on Produce, I could forego PW for this Day phase. Wolf would be the swing hammer between Asher and Produce.
It's too bad that Produce is unable to defend himself though. Either way, scum vibes are scum vibes, and he gives them off to me.
If you're into it, Yami, then let's do that instead. And Wolf - I hope I can trust your judgment if Yami and I go through with this.
|
|