What's your stance on AEW's predictability?

[champchumpchange]

I was thinking this yesterday as I watched the show, I could easily pick a clear cut winner to every bout that was announced for yesterday's card - this upcoming Rampage's and every match announced for next week's Dynamite (except for FTR's).

Going back, when would you say was the last time that the booking of a match surprised you?

I'm not insanely bothered by it, as, predictable result or not, the wrestlers put on a show from the opening bell up to the finish - but I suppose I'd prefer it if there was a bit more of unpredictability to the whole thing.

What say you?

[Mecca]

I don't think anyone thought Jungle Boy was losing..

["Evil Brood" Jackson Vanik]

I say it has the right amount of predictability. There are a few matches where you're unsure. Jungle Boy/Kyle was one. Everyone thought ReDragon would win the titles. At Revolution, folks thought Rosa would win and some thought Jericho might win. But generally it's predictable which I'm in favor of because that's often what good storytelling needs. Of course Hogan is going to beat Andra at WrestleMania. Of course Wardlow is going to destroy everyone in his path on his way to MJF. You want to book some matches where the result is in question for suspense but generally if the story is there and it's a good one, the result being a foregone conclusion is totally fine.

[Deleted]

The upper card/championship scene is usually very stable and predictable. Which, honestly makes sense. You don't want a lot of hot shotting with the belt and you know where things are going well ahead of time because, if you do it right, you've got the audience prepared and wanting the outcome they get.

The midcard is where TK gets a little more experimental, but that's where you can really let the cream of the crop of the cream of the crop be the absolute best.

[Cyno]

I don't mind it. Predictably makes sense in long-term storytelling especially and you don't exactly see anyone say that about other forms of fiction, either. Except maybe Vince Russo ("Return of the Jedi totally should've been a swerve with Palpatine winning, bro").

I think where they could stand to mix it up is on the journey and not the destination. Predictable results are fine, but being telegraphed months in advance can turn your story from stable to stale. It's a delicate dance in storytelling. Have twists and turns where they make sense from a storytelling perspective, but don't sacrifice the narrative just to work over the marks or the dirtsheets.

[Deleted]

It’s a part of the long term booking AEW relies on. I think most fan are fine with it as well and find enjoyment. We all knew Hangman was finally gonna complete his journey at Full Gear last year, didn’t take away from the moment at all.

[Fake Jesus]

Yeah, no shit storylines should have logical destinations: But the point of the journey is to make you doubt that you'll get there (Although wrestling fans tend to just get upset at storyline wrinkles like Hangman and the Dark Order losing to The Elite), and it is rare that AEW actually manages to make anyone feel that doubt with their top booking. Sometimes they do, like in MJF vs CM Punk, but it's usually very predictable, to the extent that people are able (With an actual degree of accuracy) to forecast what storylines are going to happen next based off assumed results.

Now, WWE doesn't have this at all, Reigns excepted, because WWE's booking is so f***ing insane that they think it's acceptable to do bizarre shit like that time The Big Show waddled down and laid out both Danielson and Orton in the title main event.

It should be possible for AEW to bring in a degree of unpredictability, but it would have to be the result of zigging instead of zagging logically and covertly planning storylines and pushes which don't seem obvious from fifty miles away. A little bit of this and no one would take any result for granted, although they would also have to deal with the detestable archetype of the 45-year old reddit smark who apocalyptically rages when his fantasy booking isn't fulfilled and regards anything at all deviating from it as 'bad booking'.

[4real]

It keeps a lot of guys looking strong…which is refreshing that is for sure.

[Deleted]

Makes me lose interest, at least in the tv shows. I don't care how great a match is, if it's a glorified squash match, what's the point?

[Mid-Carder]

It can be a little predictable but I'd rather have predictability than swerving for the sake of a swerve.

[This Player Hating Mothman]

The matches that should matter tend to be dramatic and engaging enough for me to more than get my fill. I'm happy just seeing an exciting TV match even if I usually know how it ends, because the idea of even most matches being unknowns sounds kind of exhausting, actually?

[smokinvokoun86]

I would rather matches and shows make sense and be somewhat predictable than shocks and swerves for the sake of shocks and swerves. That’s Vince Russo bullshit that hasn’t aged well at all.

[EoE: Well There's Your Problem]

Predictability goes hand-in-hand with logic. After all, if something is the most logical outcome, then most average people would predict it to happen and thus make it the most predictable one. And if you can write your stories so there are multiple logical outcomes in play, then that’s good as well. Some measure of unpredictability isn’t always a bad thing.

If you’re trying to be unpredictable for the sake of unpredictability, then it stops really being a story at that point. It becomes a series of loosely-linked non sequiturs, and people start getting frustrated, because weekly televised wrestling isn’t the type of genre where you can do that.

[Ecks Ecks Ringout Ecks Ecks]

I feel like the company generally knows the difference between "outcome the audience expects and wants" and "outcome the audience expects, but would be receptive to a swerve". It's not 100% perfect and they've had a few misfires, but I think they've gotten it right the vast majority of times, and that's a big part of why AEW gets such positive press compared to, say, TNA in its formative years.

[Nr1Humanoid]

Hate it.

BCC winning, singles and together, is always a foregone conclusion, usually making the opponent look like an afterthought, mostly guys who deserve better than being canon fodder.

To no surprise MJF's current feud is a slightly tweaked copy of his last two.

I have barely been surprised at a single near fall in AWE due to the announcers complete inability to hide that it is coming.

But all in all AEW's strengths far outnumber their flaws.

[nihilismizhawt]

If someone you think is going to lose actually loses, it's predictable.

If someone you think isn't going to lose, but they do, then they're treating them like a jobber, making them lose to someone they shouldn't lose to.

The only think that's predictable is people complaining.

[HMARK Center]

I think predictability is a very, very underrated aspect of good wrestling booking. Like a lot of things, the late 90s kind of poisoned the well on that for some people, but it's so important to establish baseline expectations on your show (e.g. "so and so is a level about his opponent, he should win this match") so that when you do finally pull the trigger on a surprise outcome it hits like a ton of bricks.

The ultimate example of this was in 2012: freshly returned from excursion Okada, fresh off looking a bit like a goof in his Wrestle Kingdom match against similarly returning YOSHI HASHI, challenges Tanahashi, the friggin' untouchable ace, for the title. He then comes out the next month looking fresh and new and @#$%ing wins, stunning everyone, because that shit just doesn't happen.

[Chiral]

I think they could use some more shock title changes now and again but the predictability makes it more comfort food, even turns are generally pretty steady instead of constant friend breakups

[Deleted]

Aragorn: WHAT SAY YOU!?

[The Ichi]

I successfully predicted all 11 match results at Revolution this year. It was still one of the best PPVs I've ever seen.

But yeah, they could with do the occasional unexpected result. Last time that happened was when Brian Cage pinned Hangman clean.