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Post by Some Guy on Dec 26, 2015 15:06:11 GMT -5
The Academy has payed slightly more attention to box office (not too much, since you still have Best Picture noms like The Hurt Locker, which is great but still), so I don't think Fury Road's odds are hopeless. It's not about box office draw, it's the fact that the Academy is, for the most part, made of up stuffy old men who don't like pure action movies. Fury Road is a different animal, though. It's pretty much the most loved movie of 2015 by critics (see www.metacritic.com/feature/film-critics-list-the-top-10-movies-of-2015?ref=sp), is nominated for Golden Globe best picture and has been winning low key award shows all over the place. Plus, District 9 and Inception once got nods.
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Post by mcmahonfan85 on Dec 26, 2015 15:17:40 GMT -5
It's not about box office draw, it's the fact that the Academy is, for the most part, made of up stuffy old men who don't like pure action movies. Fury Road is a different animal, though. It's pretty much the most loved movie of 2015 by critics (see www.metacritic.com/feature/film-critics-list-the-top-10-movies-of-2015?ref=sp), is nominated for Golden Globe best picture and has been winning low key award shows all over the place. Plus, District 9 and Inception once got nods. i wouldn't base guesses for best pictures on Metacritic, as a lot of the people who have Mad Max listed at #1 aren't exactly the Academy type (Buzzfeed, The AV Club, Consequence of Sound, Empire magazine, Games Radar, etc.)
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Post by Red Impact on Dec 26, 2015 15:39:31 GMT -5
It's not about box office draw, it's the fact that the Academy is, for the most part, made of up stuffy old men who don't like pure action movies. Fury Road is a different animal, though. It's pretty much the most loved movie of 2015 by critics (see www.metacritic.com/feature/film-critics-list-the-top-10-movies-of-2015?ref=sp), is nominated for Golden Globe best picture and has been winning low key award shows all over the place. Plus, District 9 and Inception once got nods. District 9 and Inception aren't straight up action movies like Mad Max is. Inception is a sci-fi heist, District 9 is a sci-fi drama that very well could have been called "Apartheid with Aliens."
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Post by Clash, Never a Meter Maid on Dec 26, 2015 15:40:59 GMT -5
i wouldn't base guesses for best pictures on Metacritic, as a lot of the people who have Mad Max listed at #1 aren't exactly the Academy type (Buzzfeed, The AV Club, Consequence of Sound, Empire magazine, Games Radar, etc.) I think it's going to take future generations of critics to embrace the idea of punch-em-out movies as art more seriously. Even if the Academy doesn't nominate it, Fury Road's success and the fact it's even being discussed in such regard still gradually chips away at the stereotype that "big budget action = dumb". The Dark Knight also got the ball rolling.
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Post by Some Guy on Dec 26, 2015 15:48:56 GMT -5
District 9 and Inception aren't straight up action movies like Mad Max is. Inception is a sci-fi heist, District 9 is a sci-fi drama that very well could have been called "Apartheid with Aliens." That doesn't matter, though. The Academy isn't some grand organization that refuses to acknowledge action movies, they just tend to ride momentum pretty hard on non "academy-esque" movies which Mad Max has an absolute ton right now. And since George Miller is a lock for a director nod/maybe even win, I don't see it not getting a nod.
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Post by Red Impact on Dec 26, 2015 16:27:18 GMT -5
District 9 and Inception aren't straight up action movies like Mad Max is. Inception is a sci-fi heist, District 9 is a sci-fi drama that very well could have been called "Apartheid with Aliens." That doesn't matter, though. The Academy isn't some grand organization that refuses to acknowledge action movies, they just tend to ride momentum pretty hard on non "academy-esque" movies which Mad Max has an absolute ton right now. And since George Miller is a lock for a director nod/maybe even win, I don't see it not getting a nod. I can't see how anyone would classify District 9 or Inception as non "academy-esque" movies. District 9 is the exact type of message driven movie that they flock to only with a sci-fi veneer (like I said, it's a movie about Apartheid), and Inception had a far more psychological bend than Mad Max does. Also, the Academy really is some grand secretive organization that pushes movies they feel should be pushed, while leaving the action movies to the technical categories. They're the exact type of organization that will completely shun popular action movies for the major awards (See: The Dark Knight). They're also the type of people who won't even see a lot of movies they nominate or vote for. It's not really an objective organization, they have an agenda, and I don't see Mad Max fitting it. Maybe I'm wrong, in fact, I hope I am, because it'd be nice to see mor enon-historical dramas and biopics get recognition beyond "Best Sound Mixing." But they've not shown that they care about box office momentum or popular appeal much at all.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 11, 2016 12:28:32 GMT -5
Few more days til the nominees are announced.
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Post by Duke Cameron on Jan 11, 2016 15:01:36 GMT -5
Hard to vote when I haven't seen the majority of the films that are listed and know nothing about them on top of it. I'm guessing the majority of the films I've seen this year aren't best picture material.
The Peanuts Movie Star Wars Jurassic World Ant Man Spectre Crimson Peak Age Of Ultron Hotel Transylvania 2 Inside Out San Andreas
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Post by A Platypus Rave on Jan 11, 2016 15:16:58 GMT -5
Hard to vote when I haven't seen the majority of the films that are listed and know nothing about them on top of it. I'm guessing the majority of the films I've seen this year aren't best picture material. The Peanuts Movie Star Wars Jurassic World Ant Man Spectre Crimson Peak Age Of Ultron Hotel Transylvania 2 Inside Out San Andreas I could see them potentially throwing the Peanuts Movie a nostalgia nomination... but if they do it won't win... (though they tend to not give animated films the best picture nod since they made best Animated feature.)
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BRV
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Post by BRV on Jan 11, 2016 19:11:03 GMT -5
I really need to bone up on my movie game, because before the Golden Globes last night, I'd never heard of Beasts of No Nation, Brooklyn, Carol, Joy, or Room.
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Jeff Mangum PI
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Post by Jeff Mangum PI on Jan 11, 2016 19:19:21 GMT -5
I'm 90% sure the big snub this year is that The Martian won't get nominated for Best Picture.
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Post by Red Impact on Jan 11, 2016 19:20:11 GMT -5
I don't think all the movies have had a wide release yet.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 11, 2016 22:14:16 GMT -5
I really need to bone up on my movie game, because before the Golden Globes last night, I'd never heard of Beasts of No Nation, Brooklyn, Carol, Joy, or Room. I haven't seen any of those films yet, but outside of Room, those movies look like major oscar bait. Hell most of the movies with tons of momentum heading in look like major oscar bait. Concussion may not get nominated for best picture but Will Smith may get nominated for best actor and by God that's like the most oscar baiting trailer I have ever seen. Anyways I think Mad Max get nominated like George Miller even got a nomination for Best Director at the Globes. Plus it's visual backgrounds, strong female characters, pro feminism, and minimal dialogue like if it was filmed like a western may get its nomination. Plus George Miller is very respected and a Academy darling when making kid films like Babe and Happy Feet. Oddly enough I think The Martian, Inside Out, and Star Wars may get nominated. Like the only reason why star wars wasn't nominated for the globes because it wasn't even screened for critics or even Hollywood Press before it's release date.
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stealthamo
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Post by stealthamo on Jan 11, 2016 22:51:26 GMT -5
I don't think all the movies have had a wide release yet. Most of them don't usually get big releases in the first place. Of the 8 Best Picture nominees last year, only three were shown in more than 1500 theaters at one time (American Sniper, The Imitation Game, & Selma). For comparison's sake, most movies that get big releases are shown anywhere from 2500-4000 theaters opening weekend (the record is 4,468 held by The Twilight Saga: Eclipse).
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Post by Red Impact on Jan 11, 2016 23:25:19 GMT -5
I don't think all the movies have had a wide release yet. Most of them don't usually get big releases in the first place. Of the 8 Best Picture nominees last year, only three were shown in more than 1500 theaters at one time (American Sniper, The Imitation Game, & Selma). For comparison's sake, most movies that get big releases are shown anywhere from 2500-4000 theaters opening weekend (the record is 4,468 held by The Twilight Saga: Eclipse). A lot of dramas also wait until the oscar noms before they release outside of the major markets, so they can use that as advertising.
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stealthamo
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Post by stealthamo on Jan 11, 2016 23:28:00 GMT -5
Most of them don't usually get big releases in the first place. Of the 8 Best Picture nominees last year, only three were shown in more than 1500 theaters at one time (American Sniper, The Imitation Game, & Selma). For comparison's sake, most movies that get big releases are shown anywhere from 2500-4000 theaters opening weekend (the record is 4,468 held by The Twilight Saga: Eclipse). A lot of dramas also wait until the oscar noms before they release outside of the major markets, so they can use that as advertising. That too. I remember that happening with Silver Linings Playbook and Zero Dark Thirty a few years back when they got nominated.
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Mochi Lone Wolf
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Post by Mochi Lone Wolf on Jan 13, 2016 0:10:14 GMT -5
I didn't know this, but the DGA's are apparently a good indicator of how the Academy will vote. Apparently, when they nominate someone for their directors award, both the director and movie usually get Oscar nods. It's not perfect but it's rare that they're off by more than one or two slots.
With that said, here's their nominees:
Alejandro G. Iñárritu – The Revenant
Tom McCarthy – Spotlight
Adam McKay – The Big Short
George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott – The Martian
Noticeably absent is, of course, Steven Spielberg and Bridge of Spies. However, that in no way means they still won't get nods. It is Steven Spielberg.
They also have a first time directors award however, I've only heard of 2 out of the 5 in that category even being mentioned mounting any sort of Oscar campaigns. Those being Ex Machina and Son of Saul. And even then, those two are long shots for Best Picture as well.
Now, I've heard from some insiders that even though 10 movies can be nominated for Best picture, the Academy is likely to only nominate 5-7 this year.
With that in mind, here's who I think it will be:
The Big Short. It's peaked at the right time in award season.
The Revenant. There's absolutely no way that Iñárritu and DiCaprio are not nominated for their respective catagories and, it's a lock a for best cinematography nod. You can't nominate the lead actor, the cinematography, and the director only to snub the movie itself. That wouldn't make any sense.
Bridge of Spies. It's Spielberg and ABC is running the show. There's no way Disney is going to allow all of their movies to be left out of the biggest award.
Carol. There's no way this isn't an Academy darling.
Spotlight. The frontrunner in my opinion.
Mad Max: Fury Road. This is the longest shot but, it's been all over the place trying to woo voters so, I think it will pay off.
And finally:
The Martian. It's very similar to a lot of other Academy favorites.
That's if they decide to go with the reported maximum of 7. If they only go with 5, The Martian and Mad Max will be left off.
I'll happily tell you now that I'm basing most of this off gut instinct and with the most minimal research possible. I will more than likely be wrong but, those are my predictions.
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Paco
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Post by Paco on Jan 13, 2016 4:50:44 GMT -5
I bet they're gonna use all 10 this year.
I say these are pretty much locks:
- The Big Short - Carol - The Martian - The Revenant - Room - Spotlight - Trumbo
3 spots left for either Beasts, Compton, Inside Out or Mad Max. I say Compton makes it before them as the others have other things going for them (Beasts: Supporting Actor Idris Elba, Inside Out: Best Animated, Max: Best Director George Miller) and I don't think the Academy will wanna snub Compton completely.
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Post by Some Guy on Jan 13, 2016 10:15:20 GMT -5
Trumbo is definitely not getting nominated. It has zero backing in anything but actor.
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stealthamo
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Post by stealthamo on Jan 13, 2016 10:25:31 GMT -5
It's a bit more of a toss-up since the number of nominees fluctuates year to year, but here's my final guess:
The Big Short Carol Inside Out Mad Max: Fury Road The Martian The Revenant Spotlight Room
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