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Post by Shy Guy on Dec 3, 2009 23:29:14 GMT -5
the funniest part tonight was John saying that whoever goes home, won't be shocked... and then he's surprised when he goes home.
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fw91
Patti Mayonnaise
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Post by fw91 on Dec 3, 2009 23:37:53 GMT -5
Anyone else think the real reason why Russel got John was voted off because he didn't give him pie? ;D BTW loved How Mick bid all 500 on the burger, fries, and beer combo., wouldve done the same
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Post by Allison Reynolds on Dec 4, 2009 3:48:01 GMT -5
Heh. What I wrote about John 2 weeks ago: Sure he bought himself a few more days in the game, but for sure he isn't winning now, after cutting ties with his own tribe, and being a minority to the Foa Foa's. He's on everyone's chopping block, especially for being a challenge threat and probably won't get votes if he makes it to the end. I predict he'll be the next to get voted off. Booyaka, I called it. Arrogant John, was expendable, and proved that he would do anything to advance further in the game even break relationships with people. Foa Foa, specifically Russell and Mick saw this, and since John already gave Foa Foa the majority they needed last Tribal Council, the guy was too dangerous and a threat to Russell, so off he went. I can't believe I'm saying this, but I am mighty impressed by and <3 Russell.
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Post by Impact Zone's #1 DUMMY...YEAH on Dec 4, 2009 4:41:38 GMT -5
the funniest part tonight was John saying that whoever goes home, won't be shocked... and then he's surprised when he goes home. Jeff kept asking everyone basically the same question, and they gave him the same answer. John gave the worst, most indirect answer I've ever heard at TC.
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Ali Du Jour
Trap-Jaw
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Post by Ali Du Jour on Dec 4, 2009 9:47:24 GMT -5
I went back to look at the cast descriptions and Probst's video. Cannot believe Brett (who?) was described as a "showman", but I loved Probst's early analysis of Jaison and Natalie. Right on.
John was smart to flip being fifth on the Galu (and prob would be dropped earlier by Galu since they found out he engineered the bounceback onto Monica), but I thought he was stupid for targeting Mick or a FF as part of the deal. After flipping, all he had to do was lay low for a couple of Galu elims and then join with Mick and Jaison to blindside Russell.
I do love that Russell can't help spilling the beans. He also totally pushed John's elim through even as Mick and Jaison had doubts so it shows how much control he has as opposed to FF as a group.
I feel like Russell has a good connection with Shambo and can smooth things over with her and promise her Dave next time. Jaison was right with his read of the situation, but I don't think Shambo will bounce back to Galu when I don't think she has the connection with Monica, Dave or Brett. Everyone's been coming out of the game saying they were with Brett, but I think Shambo only felt close with Erik on Galu. She's a very emotional player so I think she'll stick with Russell.
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fw91
Patti Mayonnaise
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Post by fw91 on Dec 4, 2009 13:53:51 GMT -5
Rusell should give Shambo an ultimatum: Vote with us, or its you going home next. Can easily get it done
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Post by Threadkiller [Classic] on Dec 5, 2009 3:22:33 GMT -5
Does anyone read RealityNewsOnline? They write articles on reality shows, and they have some extraordinarily insightful Survivor pieces. I've been following them since probably Marquesas and they're always right on the money, probably because their "Strategic Overview" of each episode pinpoints certain things I wouldn't have picked up on. I swear, they go absolutely overboard in deconstructing the strategic aspect of the game (my favorite part of Survivor and why these seasons can't touch the earlier ones, since they've thrown so many cogs into the operational framework of the game that good strategy falls by the wayside and it becomes a game about luck). Anyway, their all-time list of the GREATEST Survivor strategists of all-time (i.e., the best to ever play the game - and since I hold them so high as a Survivor authority, I've pretty much considered it a definitive list in my own mind, though debate is certainly welcome) is: 1. Richard Hatch (first season) - winner 2. Yul Kwon (Cook Islands) - winner 3. Brian Heidik (Thailand) - winner 4. Ethan Zohn (Africa) - winner 5. Tina Wesson (Outback) - winner 6. Danni Boatwright (Guatemala) - winner 7. Earl Cole (Fiji) - winner 8. Lex van den Berghe (Africa) - third place 9. Jon "Johnny Fairplay" Dalton (Pearl Islands) - third place 10. Ozzy Lusth (Cook Islands) - runner-up 11. Vecepia Towery (Marquesas) - winner 12. Kathy Vavrick-O'Brien (Marquesas) - third place 13. Clay Jordan (Thailand) - runner-up 14. Neleh Dennis (Marquesas) - runner-up 15. Rob Cesternino (Amazon) - third place 16. Pascal English (Marquesas) - fourth place 17. Chris Daugherty (Vanuatu) - winner (also their choice for best jury performance of all-time) 18. Twila Tanner (Vanuatu) - runner-up 19. Jenna Morasca (Amazon) - winner 20. Amber Mariano (All-Stars) - winner I don't think they've added anyone to the list in roughly six seasons now, although a couple have made their Reality TV Hall of Fame Moments. They just inducted Russell for his extraordinary scavenging skills in finding the three idols. They always do a rundown of whether or not anyone makes it on the last strategic overview of a season, and no one ever qualifies, it seems. Still, outside of placing Rob Cesternino higher, I'd pretty much agree with this list. Oh, and adding Bob the Professor. I honestly don't know how you DON'T vote for Russell in the end, but jurors can be weird and bitter creatures. Yeah jurors can be weird. For example, how do you not vote for Colby in Australia? or Boston Rob over Amber? Rob was too boisterous. Yes, he was the one making all of the moves, but he was also the one taking the heat for all of the moves. Meanwhile, Amber strategized with Rob and then, when it came time to enact the plan, Rob was the one who did all the heavy lifting while Amber simply sat back and watched it all, keeping her hands clean like any good Mafia don and coming across like a doe-eyed angel just along for the ride, when she was really just as much, if not more so, in control than Rob was. Rob's desperation to save Amber when she flipped tribes showed how badly he needed her, since his strategy was dead in the water without Amber there to balance him out (think Vince Russo without Vince McMahon to filter his ideas). Hell, if Rob had been a better player, he would have just tried painting Amber as someone who rode his coattails there, but instead he just argued with the jury and did himself no favors. That said, back to THIS season... I think Russell is playing a terrible game. I love him to death, but it's not at all strategically-sound. He overplays his hand in every single move, and he's basically living paycheck-to-paycheck at this point. He only got rid of John because he erred by running his mouth, same way his mouthing off made him feel vulnerable and made him burn his first hidden idol. The best players a) make moves only when necessary and b) when they do make moves, they make it seem like they aren't (like Tina or Ethan in their seasons). Don't get me wrong, I think Russell is the best thing about this season, and he showed unfathomable skill in finding the three Idols (the last one while being CHASED), but he's made too many missteps for me to consider him as one of the best of all-time. I mean, if Shambo flips back over to Galu again because she felt burned by Russell not going along with dumping Dave, we're back at a 4-4 tie situation, which means people will start scrambling and a blindside is going to wind up happening because people won't want to draw the purple rock, and I'd bet all my money that it'd be Russell getting his torch snuffed out. I mean, the threat of the purple rock could make anyone flip. I actually think the person playing the best game right now is Natalie, and I don't even know if she's meaning to do it. She's hanging back and not making huge waves, but she jumps at an opportunity if/when it is presented (she was the one who brought up getting rid of Erik, but she confronted only those most likely to be on board with cutting him loose, the fly-by-night ensemble of Monica and Kellie, I believe. This arguably began the domino effect that led to Foa Foas numbers advantage now). If she makes it to the finals, she wins hands down. She hasn't pissed off anyone, she shows outstanding determination (such as in the most recent immunity challenge) and savvy (which will earn respect from the jury), and while she may not have out-thought anybody there, she knew well enough to sit back and let others out-think themselves without chopping off her hand to spite her face. Sorry for the ramble, but I love Survivor, and live and die by the strategic elements of the game.
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Post by Allison Reynolds on Dec 5, 2009 7:13:25 GMT -5
I totally agree with you on Natalie, Threadkiller. I even alluded the fact, when I said in an earlier post, that if Natalie and Russell were in the final two together, than Natalie would most likely win. That is if Russell doesn't make convincing points, like Todd did in Season China.
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Post by MGH on Dec 5, 2009 10:10:36 GMT -5
Glad to see him get some respect here. He's probably one of the two best strategists to ever play the game. He got the I.I. and used it the right way from start to finish. Got Jonathon to flip back over from Raro with it, and it ended up winning him the game. He was going home that night instead of Nate if he didn't make the flip happen. Yul isn't some outlandish personality, but he's one of my five favorite players ever.
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BxB
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Post by BxB on Dec 5, 2009 10:13:31 GMT -5
I liked Yul, but I respected Ozzy's play a lot more and felt like he deserved to win that season. He always came through with the challenges.
And I'm beginning to like Russell a lot more, I was glad he saved Dave, since he's the guy I'm rooting for.
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Post by MGH on Dec 10, 2009 21:11:13 GMT -5
I'm a little surprised Russ got out of that episode with his chance to win still in tact. I thought he was gone on the second Tribal. Not to mention that I knew Monica voted for him, but for some stupid reason I totally blanked on the fact that Brett was there. So when the second Russell vote came up I was having a "NOOOOOO!!!!" moment.
We know he's safe next week since I believe it's the last chance to play the idol. He isn't the type to pull a James and just keep it in his pocket for no good reason. So he's going to the Final 5. The question next week is who goes? Getting rid of Brett seems to be the best choice if he doesn't win immunity again. He's so well liked. We've seen before that the best strategist doesn't always win this game. Especially if you get a very bias, bitter jury. Brett needs to go, then honestly, I'm looking at Natalie next.
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fw91
Patti Mayonnaise
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Post by fw91 on Dec 10, 2009 22:32:44 GMT -5
I'm a little surprised Russ got out of that episode with his chance to win still in tact. I thought he was gone on the second Tribal. Not to mention that I knew Monica voted for him, but for some stupid reason I totally blanked on the fact that Brett was there. So when the second Russell vote came up I was having a "NOOOOOO!!!!" moment. We know he's safe next week since I believe it's the last chance to play the idol. He isn't the type to pull a James and just keep it in his pocket for no good reason. So he's going to the Final 5. The question next week is who goes? Getting rid of Brett seems to be the best choice if he doesn't win immunity again. He's so well liked. We've seen before that the best strategist doesn't always win this game. Especially if you get a very bias, bitter jury. Brett needs to go, then honestly, I'm looking at Natalie next. Yeah, I nearly shit myself, at the second tribal council. But to answer your second question, the need to dump Jaison after Brett. He will beat Russell ot anybody in the final 3. f*** I hate Final 3's. Anyway I'm glas to see people recoginize how good of a player Russell is. I really think he will win, unless he goes against Jaison. Also they need to dump Brett ASAP. How many times havew we witness, one tribe decide to not to vote for the opposition, only for them to go far and win the game. (Chris in Vanuatu, Dani in Guatemala, and Bob in Gabon
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Post by Allison Reynolds on Dec 11, 2009 1:26:13 GMT -5
I see Brett winning immunity idol again, other wise stay tuned for another lame pagong-ing. (Not saying the season had any, but the next vote would be too obvious, and would be considered a lame pagong-ing of the outsider, to me.) === It was cool to see Russell's chances seemingly be under fire, but at the same time that Monica stirred the pot against Russell, she also foolishly stirred the pot on her own chances by admitting she tried to do so, by causing tension between Foa Foa at the Tribal Council, by mentioning Jaison and Natalie and thus was voted out for looking like a cackling witch. I honestly foresaw Mick and Jaison, perhaps going against Russell and Shambo, when Brett and Monica put doubt into Mick's mind, and Mick began to spread that doubt to Jaison. Mick, Monica, Brett, Jaison all vote Russell 4 votes. Russell, Shambo, Natalie all vote Monica 3 votes. Russell gone, since he didn't play immunity idol. But funny she caused her own downfall: Monica was talking about how one shouldn't sit by cocky, and comfortable, as Russell was, yet Monica herself, became too cocky in her own plans admitting it very arrogantly during Tribal Council which ended up I assume pissing off Jaison and Mick. She also endangered Jaison's chances with the game, by putting his name out there, for elimination to Russell. So then she got voted off instead. She should have quit with the scheming while she was ahead. But her suicide strategy did perhaps increase the chances of Russell NOT winning Survivor. My Predictions: {Spoiler}Russell makes top 5 by playing the idol, (if next week is the last chance he has to play the idol) and the rest knows this, so they don't even bother to try and vote him out. Jaison sides with Mick and Brett and Natalie, to take out Russell's biggest ally, Shambo.
Jaison, Mick, Natalie, Brett... 4 votes towards Shambo. Russell and Shambo... vote against ? 2 votes.
Shambo gone.
Then Brett once again wins immunity, causing tension to arise once again. Jaison, as we the audience see is kind of like a "hero" of this season, no doubt winning the game if he reaches the top three with anyone (except Brett). So Russell convinces Natalie and Mick to vote Jaison out. (after messing with Russell's plans last time. Never Mess with fire or you get burned.)
Brett and Jaison vote against Russell 2 votes. Russell, Mick, and Natalie vote out Jaison 3 votes.
Jaison gone.
Final 4: Russell, Mick, Natalie, and Brett as the outsider and an immediate threat for jury votes.
Brett winning Immunity is crucial at this point. If he does not win Immunity, he will LOSE the game top 4. If he wins immunity, he will most likely WIN the game. With soo much Galu friends in the jury who like him: Laura, Kelly, Monica, Erik, Dave, with the off chance of John (He seems to be the only one who is meh with Brett on the Galu side) and Shambo (Shambo seems motherly towards Brett) siding with him.
Unless Natalie does something that proves she deserves to win (all she got is causing Erik's elimination) and if the previews prove true on how he'll play soon, then: MICK will Win Survivor Samoa. Thoughts?
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Post by Drillbit Taylor on Dec 11, 2009 1:32:37 GMT -5
Brett is the one on the block now. As long as he wins, he stays.
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fw91
Patti Mayonnaise
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Post by fw91 on Dec 11, 2009 15:33:04 GMT -5
Here are my predictions for each player. Natalie: Will got to the fianl 3 as the token pawn, and get no votes. (See Cindy Cook Islands) Has no shot at all from winning. However she will shock the world and win the final immunity challenge, if its some indurance challenge due ot her small size.
Jaison: Brett will win the next immunity challenge, and as the biggest threat to win, and Russel using the idol, he will go home next.
Brett: At the final five, he will loose the challenge in a showdown with Mick. Seeing as he is the biggest threat to win, He's unanimously voted off next.
Shambo: Will miss the final 3 after Mick talks Natalie into voting her off, as a threat to win votes from Galu and Russell will ultimtely have to vote her off as well, to avoid ant sort of tie breaker.
This leaves us with a final 3 of Mick, Russell, and Natalie. In an epic showdown that will come down to one vote, I go and say Mick will beat Russell after the jury will vote like they did in all stars and too many people will ignore the game russell's palyyed, and vote based on sour grapes.
Thoughts?
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Post by Threadkiller [Classic] on Dec 12, 2009 1:45:29 GMT -5
I'm a little surprised Russ got out of that episode with his chance to win still in tact. I thought he was gone on the second Tribal. Not to mention that I knew Monica voted for him, but for some stupid reason I totally blanked on the fact that Brett was there. This has happened repeatedly to me this entire season. Has ANYBODY in the history of the game made it this far with so little screen time? I mean, really, is Brett THAT uninteresting? Denise in China is the only comparable example, as they only started featuring her heavily around top six. And at that point, they started overcompensating by showing her ALL the time. But Brett seems like a decent enough guy who isn't just "along for the ride" but playing a quieter, more wait-and-see game. It interests me, and I wish he got more screentime so that I could legitimately see whether he IS playing or if he IS just along for the ride. I still think Russell is playing a hot mess of a game, filled with far too many holes. But he's the most interesting part of the season, so I hope he sticks around until at least the last tribal before the million dollar vote. That said, he had no cause to be mad at Jaison or Natalie, even if they did spill the beans about what his occupation was, since he was the idiot for letting it slip in the first place. A great strategist knows when to make plays, but more importantly, knows when to keep his mouth shut, what to reveal and what not to reveal. The man severely overplayed his hand in the early part of the competittion, and it's giving him cause for paranoia now since everyone knows he's dangerous. If he was as good as he thought he was, nobody would even look at him as this toxic, venomous threat that needs to be blindsided. He'd just be another tough guy on the chopping block for being a physical threat. And that's easily combated with the idols he's found. But he told too many people about the first idol (instead of keeping it on a "need to know" basis), played the second idol perfectly (telling only the people who needed to know, if anyone at all), and paraded the third idol out in a brazen, cocky move that may have saved him tonight, but could ultimately alienate the jurors through his hubris. A passage from a great article I've read describes my beef with Russell's strategy (despite how awesomely entertaining he is): Natalie is actually playing the better game, but I've ranted on that earlier (see one of my previous posts above). Anyway, I think, barring an immunity win, Brett goes next. If not him, I could absolutely see Shambo getting blindsided. But honestly, I can't imagine Russell would allow that to happen. I guess we'll have to wait and see.
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Dirty Hazy
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Post by Dirty Hazy on Dec 13, 2009 7:01:12 GMT -5
ok, I don't recall seeing Brett all season, until recently and I've suddenly drawn a blamk on Mick.
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Post by Allison Reynolds on Dec 13, 2009 10:03:31 GMT -5
Preview for the Upcoming episode:
What do you guys think? Another false preview edit? Or will the "Baby Faced Assassin" form that possible alliance with Mick and Natalie, that the previews from last episode hinted at?
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Post by MGH on Dec 17, 2009 20:04:25 GMT -5
Well, here we go. Brett has to go.
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Post by MGH on Dec 17, 2009 20:39:17 GMT -5
Wins immunity AGAIN.
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