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Post by DiBiase is Good on Jun 8, 2017 16:05:42 GMT -5
Exit poll suggest Conservatives to fall just short of outright majority.
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Johnny
Don Corleone
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Post by Johnny on Jun 8, 2017 16:06:10 GMT -5
The first general election in my lifetimethat I feel there's a difference between the two parties. And I must say I'm absolutely drinking Jeremy's coolaid on this one. Voted labour, but hoping for a Tory win, and that Jeremy sticks around, because no party is getting elected for a while after Brexit is done.
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Post by Hit Girl on Jun 8, 2017 16:06:47 GMT -5
Exit polls suggest the Tories have got 314. It's not enough for a majority.
Labour projected for 266, Lib-Dems for 14, SNP for 34, UKIP for 0, and the other parties 22.
Unbelievable.
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Post by DiBiase is Good on Jun 8, 2017 16:10:22 GMT -5
The SNP are really going to take a hammering if the exit poll is correct.
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Johnny
Don Corleone
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Post by Johnny on Jun 8, 2017 16:11:17 GMT -5
A tory-plaid Cymru coalition it is then
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Post by Hit Girl on Jun 8, 2017 16:13:40 GMT -5
Could be a disaster for Theresa May.
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Post by Cyno on Jun 8, 2017 16:16:45 GMT -5
Now if I understand my British politics correctly, the party with the most seats but not a majority will have to form a ruling coalition for at least 340 (341?) seats, right? SNP would be enough, but from what I understand, the Tories and SNP get along like fire and oil, so fat chance of that happening.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2017 16:18:01 GMT -5
Remember exit polls haven't been perfect, so there's still a big chance of a Tory majority. But even if it's close it's a massive black eye to May. It's going to lead to infighting that's going to further complicate the Brexit process. It's also means we'll be doing this again in about6-12months.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2017 16:19:33 GMT -5
So if I understand this correctly, if the Tories don't get the majority, the other parties can simple pool their seats and become the majority? And from the looks of it, not one of the other parties is pooling with them?
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Post by Cyno on Jun 8, 2017 16:19:57 GMT -5
Another question, since here in the US we don't really deal with more than two parties at the same time.
Is it possible for the parties that didn't get a plurality to form their own majority coalition in spite of the plurality-winning party?
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Johnny
Don Corleone
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Post by Johnny on Jun 8, 2017 16:21:01 GMT -5
Gotta love the first few hours of election coverage. People just guessing shit for hours.
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Post by Hit Girl on Jun 8, 2017 16:22:06 GMT -5
So if I understand this correctly, if the Tories don't get the majority, the other parties can simple pool their seats and become the majority? And from the looks of it, not one of the other parties is pooling with them? The only possibility is a Tory coalition with the Unionist parties in Northern Ireland, but I don't see it happening. If May stays, she'll be leading a minority government.
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Post by Hit Girl on Jun 8, 2017 16:23:00 GMT -5
Another question, since here in the US we don't really deal with more than two parties at the same time. Is it possible for the parties that didn't get a plurality to form their own majority coalition in spite of the plurality-winning party? In theory, yes, but they still might not have enough MP's, and such a large coalition would be unstable.
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Post by Gravedigger's Biscuits on Jun 8, 2017 16:24:35 GMT -5
Weirdly enough, looks like it could be the opposite of 2015 in terms of who's having a good night and who's having a bad one.
A good (or decent) night for Labour and the Lib Dems, but a poor night for the SNP and potentially disastrous for the Tories.
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Post by Cyno on Jun 8, 2017 16:25:42 GMT -5
Thank you for being patient with my questions about your political system. I promise to return the favor with our own crazy electoral system in 2020.
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Post by Mr PONYMANIA Mr Jenzie on Jun 8, 2017 16:27:48 GMT -5
Here are the exit polls results again.
Conservatives: 314
Labour: 266
SNP: 34
Lib Dems: 14
Plaid Cymru: 3
Greens: 1
Ukip: 0
Others: 18
And this is how these results would compare with 2015.
Conservatives: Down 16 on the 2015 seat result
Labour: Up 34
SNP: Down 22
Lib Dems: Up 6
Plaid Cymru: No change
Greens: No change
Can you trust exit polls?
The short answer is, yes and no.
Broadcasters have been using exit polls since at last 1974 and it is true that in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s there were were some horrific misses. Here are the figures, showing how far the gap was between the predicted majority of the winning part and the actual majority.
October 1974
ITN: Wrong by 12
BBC: Wrong by 132
1979
ITN: Wrong by 20
BBC: Wrong by 29
1983
ITN: Wrong by 28
BBC: Wrong by 2
1987
ITN: Wrong by 34
BBC: Wrong by 76
1992
ITN: Wrong by 62
BBC: Wrong by 70
1997
ITN: Wrong by 20
BBC: Wrong by 6
But in the last decade and a half the exit polls have become much more accurate.
Here are the figures for 2001.
ITN: Wrong by 8
BBC: Wrong by 10
From 2005 onwards there has been a joint exit poll, firstly commissioned for ITN and the BBC, and then, from 2010 onwards, for Sky too. Its record has been much better.
2005
Wrong by 0. It predicted a Labour majority of 66, which Labour got.
2010
Wrong by 0. It said the Tories would be 19 short of a majority, and they were.
2015
Wrong by 22. It said the Tories would be 10 seats short of a majority, but they got a majority of 12.
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Post by Hit Girl on Jun 8, 2017 16:32:12 GMT -5
lol
Someone posted that Vince ear scratching GIF on Sky News.
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Johnny
Don Corleone
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Post by Johnny on Jun 8, 2017 16:42:17 GMT -5
Why do I feel like I'm going to wake up tomorrow to find Boris is going to be Prime Minister?
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thirteen3
Dennis Stamp
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Post by thirteen3 on Jun 8, 2017 16:52:45 GMT -5
Sooo....another election in 6 weeks?
(if these exit polls are anything to go by)
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Bo Rida
Fry's dog Seymour
Pulled one over on everyone. Got away with it, this time.
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Post by Bo Rida on Jun 8, 2017 16:54:05 GMT -5
Here's Vince! It's crazy the gap has closed so much in a short space of time, imagine if there wasn't so much in-fighting in the labour party. It's even crazier that May has sabotaged herself like this. Plus the Lib dems are still suffering from Clegg ruining their reputation, UKIP have lost their main purpose after fulfilling their goal and SNP lost votes for not moving on from the independence stuff after the country already said no. So all the main parties have hurt their own standing.
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